Hotel Online  Special Report
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The Global Hospitality Advisor

-Outlook 2004: 
A Roundtable Discussion



Hotel Industry Fundamentals
Focus on Financing
January 2004
Jim Butler, Chairman of JMBM�s Global Hospitality Group, recently chaired a roundtable with some of the leading voices in the hospitality industry, seeking insights about the outlook for the industry in 2004. Joining Jim in this year�s roundtable discussion are: 
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2004 Roundtable Participants
Cia Buckley
Senior Managing Director, JER Partners

Jerry Earnest
Executive Vice President, Specialty Lending Group, GMAC Commercial Mortgage Corporation

Thomas R. Engel
President, T.R. Engel Group, LLC

Laurence S. Geller
Chairman and CEO, Strategic Hotel Capital, LLC

Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D.
National Industry Chairman, Hospitality, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP

Patrick K. O�Neal
Vice President, National Products Manager, Hotels, Midland Loan Services, Inc.

Alan Reay
President, Atlas Hospitality Group

Stephen Rushmore
President and Founder, HVS International

Randall A. Smith
Chief Operating Officer, Smith Travel Research

Rick Swig
President, RSBA & Associates

Steve Van
President and CEO, Prism Hotels

Christof Winkelmann
Vice President, International Hotel Franchising, Aareal Bank AG

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Jim Butler: Thank you all for participating in our 2004 Outlook annual roundtable discussion on the hospitality industry. I am particularly encouraged that, after three back-to-back years of declining profits, it seems like things may have turned in June or July 2003, and the worst may be behind us. I would like to start with you, Tom, because you have created three hotel brands, you started and ran the Lodging and Leisure Group at Equitable Real Estate, and now you run your own asset management and investment advisory company, the T.R. Engel Group. What is the buzz in hotel asset management today and among the hotel owners you represent looking into 2004?

Jim Butler
Chairman of JMBM�s
Global Hospitality Group

Tom Engel: The biggest buzz today remains investors� desire to have a better alignment of agent-principal interests. This is really nothing new, just getting louder and increasingly contentious. Our investor clients want full transparency in the operations�no opaqueness or hide-and-seek when it comes to programs, fees, assessments, etc. And, when our owner-clients do not get transparency from their operators, as is far too often the case, our clients get very, very upset. And worse, they become very suspicious of everything the hotel management company does. Then they want to hire me and legal experts like you and your Firm, Jim, to vindicate their rights.

Butler: I agree with you from our legal perspective, as well. The love-hate relationship between owners and operators is now being severely tested. As you know from some of the management agreement situations we have worked on together, Tom, some cases get resolved with a lot of hard work by owner representatives hammering out solutions with operators, and some have to go to litigation where operator arrogance and intractability have left them vulnerable. What does this portend for the future?

Engel: Years of experience have taught those of us who have been around for awhile that the hotel management agreement is uniquely important in creating and preserving the value of a hotel asset. Steve Rushmore may even be understating the case when he says that a hotel management agreement can easily add�or subtract�25% or more in the value of a hotel. Savvy owners and developers appreciate why they need a team like TRE and JMBM to negotiate a management agreement that will protect value and give the owner some recourse when things go sideways.

We emphasize to owners and investors that getting a fair management agreement in the first place is critical to later profitability and survival. Balanced management agreements do not come straight off the operators� shelves. They are fought over for every key provision.

Butler: Tom, you are one of the top hotel asset managers in the business. The TRE Group represents owners and investors in both existing and new properties, as well as advising prospective first-time hotel investors. What are the key issues your clients are now facing after these tough times, with things finally starting to look up in many markets and segments?

Engel: Our existing hotel owners continue to face one major issue: how to recover hotel asset value, particularly in the face of a changed world and, often, with property managers who seem to lack a profit conscience. At the risk of over-simplifying this, our asset managers generally restore values by: first, employing the very best onsite property management people we can find and ensuring they know what we seek financially; second, working with a meaningful business-building plan and monitoring plan performance monthly; and, third, keeping general and unallocated expenses at a minimum. Chain management, in particular, feeds off big general and unallocated expense budgets.

With regard to new investors, new properties, and new development, once a new investor and TRE reach a comfort level with our due diligence, clearly the hotel management contract looms as the key issue, more specifically, ensuring that the hotel real estate is not held hostage by an onerous management contract.

Butler: What words of advice do you have on management contracts?

Engel: We consistently advise our clients to sign only those management contracts that maximize ownership control. For example, we insist on termination rights upon asset sale, profit performance features, key personnel review and approval rights, getting subordination of the management agreement to financing, and other similar rights. Look, if an investor has its equity capital at risk, and holds significant debt obligations on a hotel or resort, it makes perfect sense for the investor (as opposed to the agent) to have the ultimate decision-making authority.

Obviously, this advice often leads to creative tension when negotiating with a hotel management company�and, particularly, with chain managers�but, well, we now have a new game, with new rules.

Butler: Will the downturn have any lingering effects?

Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D.:  The long-term lodging demand trend line may have been reset. Between 2001 and 2003, lodging demand diverged from the long-run historical trend line. Because of this shift in lodging demand (or resetting of the lodging demand curve), it will be some time before industry demand and RevPAR levels surpass previous peaks, despite the strong RevPAR growth expected during the next couple of years. For example, by the end of 2004, nominal RevPAR levels are expected to reach first quarter 1999 levels, and real (inflation-adjusted) RevPAR levels are expected to reach the RevPAR levels of the third quarter of 1994.

Rick Swig: Many markets�for example, Atlanta, New York, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Orlando�are seeing the end of downward occupancy pressure, but there is either downward room rate pressure or no rate growth projected for 2004. Furthermore, hotel operators and owners have now gone 36 months in a distressed business environment. To bridge the distressed period and provide positive cash flow, service debt, and even distribute cash to investors, in many cases, capital improvements and service standards have been compromised, usually at the expense of the guest experience. It is said that after 30 months, a trend becomes the new status quo or stabilized position for a market or a hotel. It has been over 30 months since hotels started feeling downward pressure on demand, so expectations for stabilized market levels might be revisited.

Patrick O�Neal: 9/11 and the recession simply accelerated the default process on many hotels, which were already doomed by misguided belief in the �Build it and they will come!� myth. Builders and investors cannot continuously invest in tertiary products in tertiary locations, undercapitalize renovations, borrow on future speculative performance, project top-of-the-market performance from lower-market flags, or overbuild a market for years to come, and still expect to be successful. But the blame is not theirs alone. Lenders must recognize all of those same issues, as well.

The relatively small group of existing CMBS B-piece investors continue to take losses in defaulted hotel loans. Their underwriting requirements for hotel loans in future CMBS pools will be more stringent. The deals that likely will not make it in the near future will include anything old and ugly, exterior corridors, weaker flags, small towns, small deals, and tertiary markets. While a great product might be accepted in a tertiary location, or a somewhat weaker product accepted in a great location, it will not take three strikes to be out in 2004�two will get you kicked. Those deals belong at a local bank, not in a CMBS transaction. There is currently NO other viable source of non-recourse long-term fixed-rate hotel lending large enough to take up the slack if CMBS ever leaves the arena. So, both borrowers and CMBS lenders should treat this source with respect. Only time will tell if we have learned anything this time around and if the education �sticks.�

Randy Smith: Patrick touches on a troublesome issue�new construction and supply growth. Solid profits will rebound when demand growth exceeds supply growth. As of the fourth quarter of 2003, room supply growth has simply not declined as much as we would have expected and it appears to be poised for a rapid rebound. Occupancy began declining in February 2001 and, other than a few exceptional months, it continued to decline until June 2003. During this time, overall room demand fell by 3.5% in 2001 and increased a modest 0.6% in 2002. In addition to these adversities, room rates also began to decline with a drop of 1.0% in 2001 and 1.4% in 2002. Without a doubt, the past two years have been one of the most difficult operating environments in modern history.

However, supply growth has remained stubbornly high. After increasing by 2.3% in 2001, room supply continued to grow by 1.7% in 2002 and by 1.3% as of October 2003. While these percentages may sound just a little too high, keep in mind that for 2003, this translates into an additional 60,000 rooms. Given the operating environment of the past two years, it would have been much more profitable for the industry to have cut that growth in half. The real concern at this point is the number of projects in the planning and pre-planning stages. Based on our latest data, the number of rooms currently planned are some of the highest we have ever documented.
This leads back to the question of rising occupancy and average daily rate or ADR. At this point, we see two very real possibilities. One is that demand fails to rebound, supply will continue to remain at current levels, and occupancy stagnates. The second possible scenario is that demand begins to rebound, supply growth picks back up to offset the demand growth, and occupancy stagnates. With slow or little growth in occupancy, the industry continues to have problems on the room rate and RevPAR side, thus continuing to exacerbate the erosion of pricing power and a return to a more stable operating environment. Unless demand growth rebounds to a level that far exceeds supply growth, occupancies may not rebound significantly until 2005 or 2006.

Hanson: I agree, Randy. Continued lodging supply growth will constrain industry performance as the economy expands. During the 2001 recession, supply growth declined only moderately, in contrast to prior downturns. Room starts troughed at 68,000 in 2002, translating to a 1.3% year-over-year growth in supply in 2003. In 1975, room starts troughed at 35,000, and in 1991, room starts troughed at only 28,000, resulting in year-over-year supply growth in 1992 of only 0.7%.

Butler: Are there any other factors restraining a recovery?

Steve Van: The two surface-to-air missiles fired recently at our helicopters in Iraq reduced the world supply of surface-to-air missiles to 499,998. I would be horrified, but not surprised, if one of the remaining missiles found a domestic airline target. The hospitality industry is not prepared for this eventuality.

O�Neal: Franchisors! Some of them are so focused on expanding each hotel brand within their portfolio to the level which they desire, with little or no consideration for the budget or economics of the licensee, that they have literally lost sight of who their client is: namely, the licensee. And, simultaneously, they are biting the hand of the lenders that feed their brands and their licensees.

A more cautious approach by lenders will keep some restraints on development, for the near future anyway. There is also a disconnect between some borrowers and reality. As treasury spreads have tightened on multifamily loans, we have seen 6% rates and 6% cap rates. But it does not work that way on hotels. The cap rates do not follow the rates down. Due to the low spreads on multifamily loans, some borrowers are anticipating spreads as low as 200 and are attempting to maximize loan dollars based on 1.40 DSC. But the math is upside down.

Butler: Let�s talk about the upside for awhile. After three of the toughest years in a decade, the U.S. economy reported growth at an 8.2% annual rate for the third quarter of 2003. Net job growth was finally reported in late 2003, and the Travel Industry Association of America or TIA has some great projections. The TIA is forecasting domestic and international visitor spending to increase by 4.4% in 2004 and almost 4.6% in 2005, after declines of 3.7% in 2002 and 4.0% in 2003. What does this suggest for the hospitality industry?

Hanson: For 2004, we forecast occupancy to increase by 2.7% to 60.8% and ADR to increase 2.2% to $85.38, for a total RevPAR increase of 4.9%. During the past several months, economists have made upward revisions to their already strong GDP forecasts and downward revisions to their inflation forecasts for the next two years. When a revised GDP growth number of 8.2% for the third quarter was released, it was higher than nearly all economic forecasts. A sustained recovery of the equity markets and the corporate sector is precisely what the lodging industry needs for business travel to rebound, and it appears that an acceleration in economic growth is now underway after only tepid growth since the end of the recession. I am proud to remind everyone that our current forecast of 4.9% RevPAR growth in 2004 is almost exactly the 5.1% growth that we forecasted for 2004 RevPAR a year ago, in December 2002.

Butler: Prosperity or recovery is usually not enjoyed equally across all segments of  the industry. Bjorn, how do you see the recovery on a segment-by-segment basis?

Hanson: In 2004, PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts RevPAR increases of 6.5% for the upper upscale chain segment and 5.8% for the upscale segment. However, these segments are still making up for cumulative RevPAR declines of 15.4% and 12.5%, respectively. The strongest-performing segment in terms of cumulative RevPAR growth will be the midscale without F&B segment, which experienced a cumulative RevPAR decline of only 2.0% between 2000 and 2003 and is expected to experience an increase in RevPAR of 4.0% in 2004.

Butler: And how about relative strengths geographically speaking, Steve?

Steve Rushmore: I would start buying hotels in Baltimore, San Antonio, and Las Vegas. I would start building hotels in Oahu, Hawaii and San Diego. If I had a hotel in any of San Francisco, Austin, Texas, or San Jose, California, I would consider selling.

Butler: How do you see the impact of industry fundamentals on hotel values and the underlying revenue streams?

Rushmore: Because of the improving economy and the slowdown in new hotel development, U.S. hotel values should increase 7% in 2003, 10% in 2004, and 18% in 2005. With this upside, now is the time to buy existing hotels. Based on historical data, during a recovery period, hotel room rates increase between two and two-and-a-half times the rate of inflation. I think you will see this amount of growth during 2004 and 2005.

Butler: The hotel industry, as a whole, has continued to enjoy respectable profits during the past three years, despite severe pain in many properties, markets, and segments. Certainly off the record highs of 2000, but still respectable profit. This is, no doubt, due in part to extreme cost cutting and reducing the required levels for break-even occupancy. Where are we now in this trend, Bjorn?

Hanson: Currently, break-even occupancy for hotels is approximately 47%, the lowest in history. As recently as the mid-1980s, break-even occupancy was above 65%. There are several reasons for this decline in necessary occupancy. First, interest expense is only about 4.0% of revenue, compared to 14.2% in 1990. Second, hotels are now operated with more focus on the rooms department and less on food and beverage and other less-profitable departments. For example, a hotel with multiple restaurants might serve breakfast in only one, keeping the others closed until lunch or even dinner. Third, computers have reduced the level of staffing needed, particularly in areas such as accounting and night audit. Finally, rate increased at a premium over inflation from 1993 to 2000, meaning less occupancy was needed by hotels. There have also been cyclical decreases in costs involving reductions in some services, marketing, training, bonuses, maintenance, and capital expenditures.

Butler: Alan, at least one national hotel brokerage has reported that in 2003, hotel transactions have experienced strong growth, with each quarter of 2003 seeing 25% increases in the number of transactions closed over the prior quarter. Are you seeing anything like this in California where you focus all your attention?

Alan Reay: In California, the averages are misleading because regional differences are so great. At the time of our last survey in 2003, Northern California had experienced a 12% decline in the number of sales while, coincidentally, Southern California was up 12%. The overall number of sales in California was up 6%. The dollar volume of transactions was up over 33%.

Butler: What is happening to hotel sales values in California?

Reay: Our Mid-Year 2003 Sales Survey, which tracks sales through the first six months of 2003, showed some interesting trends that we think largely continued for the rest of the year. For example, in the Inland Empire, values skyrocketed. The Riverside County median price per room was up 43.0%, and San Bernardino County was up 33.0%. Meanwhile, in Northern California, the median price per room declined 18.2%, with San Francisco County especially hard hit�down 39.0%.

Butler: What are the hottest markets in California?

Reay: No question about it: the Inland Empire is first, followed by San Diego County. The median price per room in San Diego County is up over 15%.

Butler: What are your predictions for California in 2004?

Reay: We feel that as prices continue to climb in areas like San Diego County and the Inland Empire, it is going to drive new hotel development. We have already started to see this in markets like Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga. So we predict that there will be a lot more demand for well-located hotel sites. In Northern California, we do not see prices continuing to decline because there are signs that RevPARs are starting to level off, and the shortage of new supply will spur demand for hotels that are priced below replacement cost. There is a lot of capital out in the market chasing deals, and we see this continuing in 2004.

Butler: Laurence, I leave it to you to provide the final word on the hospitality industry.

Laurence Geller: �Twas the best of times; �twas the worst of times! Have we learned anything that will help us grow and rebound? Will we learn that the fundamental usage and booking habits are changing faster than we are? Will the usual excesses return, eroding the much needed dramatic margin improvements hidden under the smug self-satisfaction of increasing room rates driven by lack of supply and GDP growth rather than the much hallowed skills of our corporate marketers? That�s it folks!

FOCUS ON FINANCING

Butler: Let�s turn our attention to what has been an engine, or a brake, for the hotel industry: namely, financing. Jerry, would you please give me your perspective on what is happening in the capital markets for the hospitality industry?

Jerry Earnest: Financing, which is plentiful, will become even more available for many segments of the industry. High loan proceeds and competitive loan terms can be achieved by solid borrowers with quality properties. High liquidity levels may lead to more financing available for lower quality properties and brands, an area that has been challenging in recent years.

The level of transactions in the industry should continue to rise rapidly. Many properties are changing hands, despite a large number requiring major renovation. In addition, as Bjorn Hanson and Randy Smith have already pointed out, the pipeline of new hotel development is rising. Of course, too much new supply has the potential to reduce the magnitude of any meaningful recovery in 2005.

The high level of capital moving into the hospitality industry to a great degree reflects the high levels of liquidity in the stock market and commercial real estate markets generally. It was only five years ago that the frothy capital markets of 1997 and 1998 for the lodging industry came to an abrupt end with the financing crisis in the fall of 1998. Let�s hope some major capital market disruption is not how this current liquidity bubble gets popped this time!

Butler: Patrick, what is your general outlook for CMBS hotel lending in 2004?

O�Neal: There are a few players back in the market. We just closed two hotel loans at PNC Real Estate Finance totaling almost $22.5 million, and are quoting others. I do not expect to see a rush to the market from lenders. Nobody wants to be holding hotel paper they could not get past the B-piece investors. Those who have had several deals kicked in the past will likely be slower to re-enter the market, until they get a better feel for how the rating agencies are reviewing the deals, and until they see a constant flow of hotel loans being sold in pools. I would hope to not see the crazy level of underwriting we saw from 1998 to 2000, which is the period of origination for most of the hotels in default today.

Butler:  Steve Van, as the head of the 11th largest independent third-party hotel management company in the U.S., managing more than 45 hotels nationwide and recently recognized as the fastest growing management company in the U.S. since 9/11, you are leading both new hotel investment for major institutional capital and applying your turnaround expertise for CMBS lenders such as GMAC and Midland and for portfolio clients such as Apollo Real Estate Advisors, Winston, and AEW. How do your see things?

Van: These are �interesting times.� On the one hand, we think this is a great time to be selectively buying good hotels in good markets, and we are loaded with capital looking for deals. On the other hand, the problems of the past three years have mortally wounded the capital structures of a lot of hotels in the U.S. And in this area, our team that works with CMBS and conventional lenders is very busy taking over failed hotels, fixing them up, and getting them sold.

The hotel loans in the CMBS world are by no means out of the woods yet. The first quarter of 2004 will see a significant increase in major branded full-service hotels coming back to Special Servicers. In markets like the San Francisco Bay Area, Orlando, and Dallas, many borrowers are out of gas, bled dry, without hope, and throwing in the towel.

CMBS loans with 5- and 10-year maturities originated in 1994, 1995, and on up until 2000 are coming due, are unlikely to be extended, and must be replaced. Many will fail to be refinanced and find their way back to the servicers�some after working through the bankruptcy process to protect perceived equity. We expect to be very busy.

Butler: Tom, you work with both owners and capital sources in developing strategies, helping assemble the right team, performing due diligence, and negotiating critical deal structures and documents. Would you like to make any predictions about 2004?

Engel: Well, we predict two things. First, you will see fewer public lodging companies investing in hotels as equity investors because of the onerous effect of real estate depreciation on public company income statements. Second, the industry will see the continued growth, or continued return (to be exact), of private equity pools teaming up with privately-held management companies. TRE�s preferred lodging business model�the one I felt most comfortable investing in during the 1990s at Equitable and the one we promote most here at TRE�is a model built around a joint venture between real estate professionals managing equity dollars and hotel property managers with both co-investment funds and great project management and entrepreneurial hotel management depth.

For example, we have assisted JER Partners in certain aspects of their recent refocus on the hotel industry. As many may know, JER Partners is a leading real estate investment and asset management firm, headquartered in Virginia with offices around the U.S. and Western Europe. Over its 22-year history, JER has built its business by capitalizing on market mis-pricings, caused by the disruption of capital flows that create real estate investment opportunities.

Cia Buckley: Thank you, Tom. That�s right. JER manages private investment funds that have more than $1.5 billion of committed capital. These funds invest in real estate portfolios, commercial mortgage-backed securities and loans, individual assets, and operating companies in North America and Western Europe.

JER is currently reviewing a significant number of hospitality investments for its portfolio. JER will consider all types of hospitality transactions, including debt and equity investments in full service, limited service, and resort properties. JER likes that model that you used so successfully at Equitable and is seeking to form joint ventures with knowledgeable operating partners to source and manage its investments and will be able to provide attractive structuring options to its potential partners.

Butler: Chris, Aareal Bank may be one of the best kept secrets in real estate and hospitality lending, at least in the U.S. But everyone is starting to learn about Aareal because of its consistent presence in the U.S. As a bank operating in 19 countries, and holding more than $44 billion of real estate loans in its own portfolio, what do you see your bank doing in hotel finance for 2004?

Christof Winkelmann: It is always difficult to predict the volume of loan origination, but for quite a few years we have consistently booked between $500 million and $600 million per year in hotel loans in North America. With the generally improving U.S. economy and apparent recovery of the hotel industry that seems to be underway, I would confidently predict that we will reach at least that level of hotel loans in 2004, if not surpass it.

Butler: What will you be looking for in 2004?

Winkelmann: As in the past, our sweet spot is the upper end of the market: the four- and five-star hotel assets with solid brands and operators in major CBDs. We look for reliable cash flows (getting comfortable from a history of performance) and we like to see high barriers to entry. Nevertheless, we will look at opportunities outside our sweet spot if the overall structure makes sense, but at the present time, we would not look at construction financing. We usually underwrite to a 55% to 65% LTV and debt service coverage ratios in between 160% and 170%. Loan sizes usually range from $25 million to $100 million, occasionally going below that minimum, and up to $150 million, in exceptional cases. We do not have a problem considering opportunities where a mezzanine loan comes behind our position, subject to satisfactory inter-creditor arrangements.

Butler: Lots of financing sources come in and go out of the market, but Aareal has been a consistent lender in good times and bad. Aareal also has a top professional staff that really understands hospitality. Is that what you attribute your burgeoning success to or are there any other factors that set you apart from the crowd?

Winkelmann: As you point out, Jim, we think consistency is one of the keys�a big key. While many others were cutting back, we took a different approach. Aareal Bank has built up a team that is purely dedicated to hotel financing, with a mix of bankers, lawyers, and people from the industry. We believe that hotels can be financed at any time during an economic cycle, provided the loans are tailored to the individual asset or portfolio and their respective markets. Our clients value the fact that we are there for them in the tough times, as they are there for us in the good times. It is our strong belief that this kind of reciprocity is a key factor for the long-term success of our clients and the bank itself. Relationships with our borrowers extend beyond the loan closing throughout the loan term. Our customers value the responsiveness and expertise of our team for dealing with their issues and opportunities.



The Global Hospitality Advisor ® is published four times a year for the clients, business associates and friends of Jeffer, Mangels, Butler & Marmaro LLP.

The information presented in this newsletter is intended as general information and may not be relied upon as legal advice, which can only be given by a lawyer based upon all the relevant facts and circumstances of each particular situation.

  • Our experience ranges from individual properties to billion-dollar portfolios.
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The Global Hospitality Group® is a registered trademark of Jeffer, Mangels, Butler & Marmaro LLP
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For more information:
Jeffer Mangels Butler & Marmaro LLP
1900 Avenue of the Stars, 7th Floor
Los Angeles, CA 90067-4308
Attn: Jim Butler
310.201.3526 � 310.203.0567 fax
[email protected]
http://www.jmbm.com

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