The future is looking very positive � 93.3% of the executives indicated their expectations for lodging business conditions were going to be better 12 months from now versus 83% last month, with only 6.7% of the respondents indicating good conditions, and none think that conditions will be worse 12 months from now. �I think we�ve finally reached bottom,� said another industry executive, �unless we have another massive terrorists� attack.� The LEsI, a nationwide poll of lodging industry executives in operations, finance and development, human resources, and marketing who represent all segments of the lodging industry, tracks on a month-to-month basis a 12-month outlook for the lodging industry. LodgingForecast holds its executives� responses in strictest confidence, and only the final summary analysis is reported.

Consumer confidence, as reported by the Conference Board, fell sharply last month to 85.5 - its lowest reading since 1994, and during the past three months, confidence for consumers over the age of 55 declined most significantly. The decline in confidence mirrors almost exactly the decline that took place when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August of 1990. Sophia Koropeckyj of the Dismal Scientist also says, �surprisingly, travel plans have improved and the share of consumers expected to fly to their destination has not fallen appreciably, from 19.8% to 18.2%.� The Conference Board's time horizon is 6 months, differing from the LEsI which has a 12 month time horizon for the Futures Expectations Index. Echoing lodging executives� sentiment, �many consumers believe that the economy will rebound in a year's time but are much more pessimistic about the six-month time horizon.� Korobeckyj continues, ��tourism is being adversely affected. While the cyclical slowdown had already caused a deceleration in growth in the tourism and convention industries, conditions are now far worse.�
 
The Rooms Reservations Index inched upwards a bit to 50.0 versus last month�s negative growth reading of 42.9. The Rooms Reservation Index asks executives what they expect for rooms reservations/bookings over the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months. 

In its ninth monthly reporting, the October Lodging Employment Index indicated slight expansion reading at 53.1; it climbed significantly compared to the total index reading for non-management employees at 31.0 for September. Lodging industry executives are asked whether, over the next 12 months, do they expect to: 

1. add non-management employees, 
2. keep the number about the same, or 
3. reduce the total number of non-management employees. 

About the Index

Following the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAMP) Index method of tracking economic indicators, the LEsI is a diffusion index--a convenient summary measure showing the prevailing direction of change and the magnitude of change for the Lodging Industry. The LEsI is a leading indicator based on opinions of lodging executives looking into the future as well as weighing in on the current situation.

About LodgingForecast.com

LodgingForecast publishes several lodging-related indicators each month. In an agreement with PKF�s Hospitality Research Group and using proprietary forecasting models, LodgingForecast generates the LEsI and 18-month forecasts for occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, as well as construction and employment costs with its Lodging Industry Barometer (LIB). The LIB is a composite, quantitative assessment of the lodging industry�s national business cycle that weighs room rates and occupancy. Monthly forecasts, looking 18 months out, are normally published in Lodging Hospitality Magazine.