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   Lodging Executives Sentiment Current Situation in Steep Decline�
Future Looks More Positive
Durham, N.H., Jun. 30, 2001 � �Things are good. We picked up market share in the 4th Q 2000 and 1stQ 2001. Interest in our brand is at an all time high � we�ve never been busier in branding properties.� The rooms business is bad, but the flag-selling business is robust. 

The composite Lodging Executive�s Sentiment Index (LEsI) calculated for the month of June is 44.6�the lowest reading since its inception 13 months ago down from 53.6 last month. The Current Situation Index recorded its lowest reading ever at 25.0 from 35.7 last month, and the Future Expectations Index recorded a 64.3�down from May�s reading of 71.4. The 64.3 reading continues to mark expansion since a LEsI reading of 50+ marks the lodging industry as generally expanding; and below 50, the industry is generally declining [the distance from 50 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline].

The Rooms Reservations Index calculation for the month of June dipped below flatline into negative growth and reads at 46.4 as compared to 50.0 for May. The Rooms Reservation Index asks executives what they expected for rooms reservations/bookings over the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months. 

In its fourth monthly reporting, the Lodging Employment Index signaled a significant reduction in the total number of non-management employees with an index reading of 42.9 compared to 65.4 for the previous month, May. With the reading below flatline, the Employment Index reading corroborates the general decline in the current situation as well as for the near term by lodging industry executives.
 

June 2001 Lodging Executives Sentiment 
at a Glance
Indicator 
Index 
Direction of Business Activity
Speed of Change in Business Activity
LESI 44.6 Declining  Faster
Present Situation Index 25.0 Declining Faster
Expectations  64.3 Expanding  Slower

About the Index

Created by researchers at LodgingForecast.com, the LEsI tracks on a month-to-month basis a 12-month outlook for the lodging industry. The LEsI is a nationwide poll of lodging industry executives in operations, finance and development, and marketing who represent all segments of the lodging industry. LodgingForecast.com holds its executives� responses in strictest confidence; only the final summary analysis is reported, and the summary analysis encompasses upwards of 1.3 million hotel rooms.

Following the Purchasing Managers Index method of tracking economic indicators, the LEsI satisfies the need for real-time information for executive decision making in the lodging industry. Inaugurated in June 2000, the LEsI is a diffusion index--a convenient summary measure showing the prevailing direction of change and the magnitude of change for the Lodging Industry. The LEsI is a leading indicator based on opinions of lodging executives looking into the future as well as weighing in on the current situation.

LodgingForecast.com is a division of the consulting firm evanjoeray, LLC
that publishes several lodging-related indicators each month. In agreement with PKF�s Hospitality Research Group and using proprietary forecasting models, LodgingForecast.com generates the LEsI and 18-month forecasts for occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, and employment costs.

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Contact:
Raymond J.Goodman, Jr. 
[email protected]
(603) 868-7888 
http://orbit.unh.edu/dhm
http://www.lodgingForecast.com

Also See Lodging Executives Sentiment Continues to Slip and Slide, but the Future Still Registers Positive / May 2001 
Lodging Executives Sentiment Current Situation in Steep Decline�Future Looks More Positive / March 2001
Lodging Executives Sentiment Flying High Above Other Indicators �Do we know something they don�t.� / Feb 2001
Lodging Executives Sentiment slides downward, Mimics the Dow / Dec 2000 
Lodging Executives Sentiment Holds Steady Amid Stock Market Correction and the High Cost of Energy / Oct 2000
Hospitality Industry Boom has Executives Bullish About Present Conditions and Optimistic About the Future; Lodging Executives Sentiment Index / Sept 2000 
The Lodging Executives Sentiment Index (LESI) Rose to 76.4 in July, Up from June�s Reading of 70.3 / Aug 2000 


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