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But the Future is Looking Very Positive |
Durham, N.H., Aug 31, 2001 �. The composite Lodging Executive�s Sentiment
Index (LEsI) calculated at 45.8 for the month of August continued to slide
downward from July [29.4], but a bit higher than its all time low recorded
in the month of June at 44.6. This month�s index is based solely on future
expectations with a reading of 91.7 since current expectations are at 0.00�not
one executive responding indicated anything other than business was BAD.
�While the first half has presented us with challenges, we believe certain
indications point to a strengthening in the last part of �01 and good RevPAR
gains in �02,� advised one key industry executive. A LEsI reading of 50+
marks the lodging industry as generally expanding; and below 50, the industry
is generally declining while the distance from 50 is indicative of the
strength of the expansion or decline. Subscribers will enjoy a full report
of the survey results.
The future is looking very positive � 83% of the executives indicated their expectations for lodging business conditions were going to be better 12 months from now, with only 17% of the respondents indicating good conditions, and none think that conditions will be worse. The LEsI, a nationwide poll of lodging industry executives in operations, finance and development, human resources, and marketing who represent all segments of the lodging industry, tracks on a month-to-month basis a 12-month outlook for the lodging industry. LodgingForecast.com holds its executives� responses in strictest confidence, and only the final summary analysis is reported. The Rooms Reservations Index jumped upward to 66.7 versus last month�s dismally negative growth reading of 35.3. The Rooms Reservation Index asks executives what they expect for rooms reservations/bookings over the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months. In its seventh monthly reporting, the August Lodging Employment Index
flatlined at 50.0, climbed slightly more positive with the total index
reading of non-management employees of compared to 44.1 for the previous
month, July. Lodging industry executives are asked whether, over
the next 12 months, do they expect to: 1) add non-management employees,
2) keep the number about the same, or 3) reduce the total number of non-management
employees. While the Lodging Employment Index reading is flatline, the
cautious trending upward of the need to add to the labor supply supports
the robust sentiment for the future expectations business conditions index
� but with an eye out for productivity and profitability.
About the Index Following the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAMP) Index method of tracking economic indicators, the LEsI is a diffusion index--a convenient summary measure showing the prevailing direction of change and the magnitude of change for the Lodging Industry. The LEsI is a leading indicator based on opinions of lodging executives looking into the future as well as weighing in on the current situation. About LodgingForecast.com LodgingForecast.com publishes several lodging-related indicators each month. In an agreement with PKF�s Hospitality Research Group and using proprietary forecasting models, LodgingForecast.com generates the LEsI and 18-month forecasts for occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, as well as construction and employment costs with its Lodging Industry Barometer (LIB). The LIB is a composite, quantitative assessment of the lodging industry�s national business cycle that weighs room rates and occupancy. |
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Raymond J.Goodman, Jr. [email protected] (603) 868-7888 http://orbit.unh.edu/dhm http://www.lodgingForecast.com |