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   Lodging Executives Current Sentiment -- BAD, 
But the Future is Looking Very Positive
Durham, N.H., Aug 31, 2001 �. The composite Lodging Executive�s Sentiment Index (LEsI) calculated at 45.8 for the month of August continued to slide downward from July [29.4], but a bit higher than its all time low recorded in the month of June at 44.6. This month�s index is based solely on future expectations with a reading of 91.7 since current expectations are at 0.00�not one executive responding indicated anything other than business was BAD. �While the first half has presented us with challenges, we believe certain indications point to a strengthening in the last part of �01 and good RevPAR gains in �02,� advised one key industry executive. A LEsI reading of 50+ marks the lodging industry as generally expanding; and below 50, the industry is generally declining while the distance from 50 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. Subscribers will enjoy a full report of the survey results.

The future is looking very positive � 83% of the executives indicated their expectations for lodging business conditions were going to be better 12 months from now, with only 17% of the respondents indicating good conditions, and none think that conditions will be worse. The LEsI, a nationwide poll of lodging industry executives in operations, finance and development, human resources, and marketing who represent all segments of the lodging industry, tracks on a month-to-month basis a 12-month outlook for the lodging industry. LodgingForecast.com holds its executives� responses in strictest confidence, and only the final summary analysis is reported.

The Rooms Reservations Index jumped upward to 66.7 versus last month�s dismally negative growth reading of 35.3. The Rooms Reservation Index asks executives what they expect for rooms reservations/bookings over the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months. 

In its seventh monthly reporting, the August Lodging Employment Index flatlined at 50.0, climbed slightly more positive with the total index reading of non-management employees of compared to 44.1 for the previous month, July.  Lodging industry executives are asked whether, over the next 12 months, do they expect to: 1) add non-management employees, 2) keep the number about the same, or 3) reduce the total number of non-management employees. While the Lodging Employment Index reading is flatline, the cautious trending upward of the need to add to the labor supply supports the robust sentiment for the future expectations business conditions index � but with an eye out for productivity and profitability.
 
 

August 2001 Lodging Executives Sentiment 
at a Glance
Indicator 
Index 
Direction of Business Activity
Speed of Change in Business Activity
LESI 45.8 Declining  Slightly Faster
Present Situation Index 0.00 Declining Very Fast
Future Expectations Index  91.7 Expanding  Very Fast
Reservations Expectations Index 66.7 Expanding Much Faster
Employment Expectations Index 50.0 Flatlined Slightly Faster

About the Index

Following the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAMP) Index method of tracking economic indicators, the LEsI is a diffusion index--a convenient summary measure showing the prevailing direction of change and the magnitude of change for the Lodging Industry. The LEsI is a leading indicator based on opinions of lodging executives looking into the future as well as weighing in on the current situation.

About LodgingForecast.com

LodgingForecast.com publishes several lodging-related indicators each month. In an agreement with PKF�s Hospitality Research Group and using proprietary forecasting models, LodgingForecast.com generates the LEsI and 18-month forecasts for occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, as well as construction and employment costs with its Lodging Industry Barometer (LIB). The LIB is a composite, quantitative assessment of the lodging industry�s national business cycle that weighs room rates and occupancy.

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Contact:
Raymond J.Goodman, Jr. 
[email protected]
(603) 868-7888 
http://orbit.unh.edu/dhm
http://www.lodgingForecast.com

Also See Lodging Executives Continues to be --BAD, but a Little Move to the Plus Side / Aug 2001
Lodging Executives Sentiment Current Situation in Steep Decline; Future Looks More Positive / July 2001 
Lodging Executives Sentiment Continues to Slip and Slide, but the Future Still Registers Positive / May 2001 
Lodging Executives Sentiment Current Situation in Steep Decline�Future Looks More Positive / March 2001
Lodging Executives Sentiment Flying High Above Other Indicators �Do we know something they don�t.� / Feb 2001
Lodging Executives Sentiment slides downward, Mimics the Dow / Dec 2000 
Lodging Executives Sentiment Holds Steady Amid Stock Market Correction and the High Cost of Energy / Oct 2000
Hospitality Industry Boom has Executives Bullish About Present Conditions and Optimistic About the Future; Lodging Executives Sentiment Index / Sept 2000 
The Lodging Executives Sentiment Index (LESI) Rose to 76.4 in July, Up from June�s Reading of 70.3 / Aug 2000 


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