Apr. 1--The world's largest travel trade show, the ITB Berlin, last month joined the growing number of industry events to be hit by a declining attendance, but it was also punctuated by a desire to change the mood and get business moving again. 

A closing report issued by Messe Berlin, the organiser of the event held from March 16- 20, said that 9,875 exhibitors participated, down from 10,136 in 2001. Overall attendance was 121,300, down from 123,400 in 2001. 

Mainly because of the cost and the general decline in tourism worldwide, eight countries pulled out, including Bangladesh, nearly all the South Pacific island nations and a number of African countries. 

Many country stands were affected by a drop in attendance by individual companies. However, the decline was offset partly by new entrants Laos and Azerbaijan, both making a comeback after no-shows in 2000 and 2001, and an inaugural presence by Bosnia-Herzegovina. 

Trade visitors rose from 57,000 in 2001 to 65,000 this year, the report said, reflecting buyers search for new destinations and deals that invariably crop up when crisis strikes. The number of media representatives was up slightly from 6,500 in 2001 to 6,749 journalists. However, both these latter figures could be slightly off the mark; it was noticed that representatives of many seller firms which did not have a formal presence nevertheless turned up wearing trade-visitor or media badges. 

The travel technology section was especially badly affected, due to costs, a lack of interest and competition from CeBIT, the world's largest technology show, which was being held in Hannover at the same time as ITB. 

Although the show had made a bad start with the cancellations of long-term participants like Lufthansa, Thomas Cook and a number of other major German tour operators, Messe Berlin had wanted to position it as an indicator of industry revival. 

According to Erich Kaub, president, National Association of the German Tourism Industry, bookings have picked up again, and all the surveys and forecasts indicate that business will return to normal over the medium term, provided that the world situation remains stable. 

Klaus Laepple, president, German Association of Travel Agencies, added a similar caveat: "Now, it is time to bring about a change of mood. With a return to stability in the international political situation so travel behaviour will return to normal too." 

One research paper presented at the show said: "Current travel and booking trends suggest there will be a resumption of previous growth patterns by the second half of 2002." 

Paris-based industry analyst Nancy Cockerell noted that in the last four months of 2001, the United States market to Europe fell by 30-50 percent on average, according to the European Travel Commission. The decline from Japan was 25-30 percent. 

While 2002 would undoubtedly see a revival in arrivals growth to Europe from both markets, the return to previous record levels would not occur until 2003, she said. 

Among the European travel trends expected to continue this year, identified by IPK International, the ETC and the World Tourism Organisation, the most important are: Increased concern over safety and security; a shift to domestic travel; a shift to tried and tested foreign destinations closer to home; a shift from air to ground transport; a greater interest in VFR travel (visits to friends and/or relatives); increased short/city breaks, but not to major destinations; less interest in "fun and adventure" holidays; and an increased demand for authentic experiences. 

Ms Cockerell said: "While the economic slowdown -- and recession in some countries -- may exacerbate current trends, the medium-to-long-term outlook is extremely bullish. Demand for leisure travel [in Europe] is a long way from saturation. Even in markets in which there is already a high propensity to travel abroad, total demand for foreign travel will continue to grow." 

This was because people were travelling more frequently, opting for several shorter trips a year to complement their main annual holidays, she said. Demand for leisure travel and tourism was being affected by socio-demographic shifts. 

These include an increase in female travellers with more influence on decision-making, an increase in double-income households, rising education levels, and growth in the number and share of older travellers with greater disposable leisure time. 

Growing use of the Internet is also boosting demand, and other technological advances are reducing distribution costs for suppliers. 

E-commerce is helping customers tailor their own holidays. All this augured well for the industry's future, she said. 

For better or for worse, the erratic global political situation has put Messe Berlin in a quandary about its pricing policy for 2003. 

A company spokesman said it was likely the group would hold prices for exhibition space next year but start charging for its Virtual Market-Place, the online trade show that was inaugurated in 2001 with an offer for a one-year free listing. The site claims a listing of about 3,000 exhibitors. 

-- Imtiaz Muqbil is executive editor of Travel Impact Newswire, an e-mail-delivered feature and analysis service focusing on the Asia-Pacific travel industry. E-mail: [email protected]. 

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(c) 2002, Bangkok Post, Thailand. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News. DLAGY,