Aug. 9--TAMPA, Fla.--Developers could reveal plans for at least three Tampa hotels in the next 18 months, with Westin, Renaissance, Hilton and Omni the likely brands, a national hotel consultant predicts. 

The Plasencia Group, based in Tampa, sees a promising future in its back yard despite an industry slump the nation's economy has created. 

International Plaza will get a hotel of a Westin or Renaissance caliber, said Lou Plasencia, the company's chief executive. A Hilton or a Westin could be built downtown, he said. 

And an independent boutique hotel is a likely prospect for Ybor City, he added. 

"Traditionally, one out of 10 projects rumored to be announced come to fruition," Plasencia said. "In our opinion, the greatest likelihood to occur in the next 18 months will be these larger hotels." 

Two hotels are nearing completion in Tampa. 

This fall, a Residence Inn is scheduled to open near International Plaza. 

A SpringHill Suites by Marriott is under construction at West Shore Boulevard and Cypress Street. 

Plus, a local developer said he will break ground for a 152- room Matrix eSuites near International Plaza within two weeks. 

And in December, the Bromley group announced plans for a 300-room Westin hotel at Interstate 275 and Dale Mabry Highway. 

Tampa's hotel prospects are fueled both by solid visitor levels and slower growth in the supply of new rooms in recent years, data from Smith Travel Research, a Tennessee visitors industry consultant, showed. 

Plasencia points to Tampa faring better than most major markets in revenue per available room, a significant indicator for the hotel industry. 

He expects revenue per available room among upscale Tampa Bay hotels to grow 5 percent in 2001, to $85.69, and 3 percent in 2002, to $88.26. 

Tampa's hotels will go through some difficult times in the next six to nine months, he said. 

But the message Plasencia tells local hoteliers these days: "Don't lower rates." If they do, it will be very difficult to get back to current levels quickly. 

A Gainesville, Ga., hotel company that operates six of its 32 Southeastern U.S. hotels in Tampa agrees the local market is holding its own. 

McKibbon Hotel Management Inc. expects to open a 160-suite Residence Inn by mid-November along Lois Avenue in the shadow of International Plaza. 

"Tampa is looking good," McKibbon spokeswoman Yvonne Bean said. "We haven't had a falloff in room nights." 

Clearwater developer Gerald Ellenburg said last week his privately held company would be ready to break ground within days on his first Matrix eSuites hotel. 

Ellenburg said he obtained financing from the MKD group in New York and wants to take advantage of opportunities from the waning economy. 

"Interest rates are down, labor is available, and labor costs are down," said Ellenburg, who plans to break ground on hotels in Jacksonville, Phoenix, Albuquerque, N.M., and the San Francisco area. 

Hotel developers discuss more than 20 potential sites in Tampa -- including the three Plasencia regards as the most likely -- although many are unlikely to materialize. 

Busch Gardens dropped plans for a hotel at the theme park, Plasencia Vice President Dan Peek said, and plans for a hotel in west Ybor City fell through recently. 

But Tampa urban planner and real estate consultant Mike English said Menna Development & Management, which planned to build a hotel on the southeast corner of Seventh Avenue and 13th Street, is looking elsewhere in Ybor City. 

Another hotel developer is evaluating the Seventh Avenue site, English said. 

The area near International Plaza likely will attract a hotel near the new Residence Inn under construction on Lois, Peek said. 

And downtown Tampa remains a key prospective location for another hotel serving the Convention Center and Channelside area. 

International Plaza will announce its plans for a hotel later this year, General Manager Aj Jemison said. 

She won't say who the operator will be, but local hoteliers say Renaissance is a more likely prospect than Westin, since Bromley announced a Westin would be built at nearby Tampa Bay 1. 

The Renaissance Vinoy Resort is downtown St. Petersburg's marquee hotel. 

Tampa is unlikely to attract "upper upscale" brands such as the Ritz Carlton and Four Seasons any time soon, Peek said. 

"I think that market has reached its cyclical end in Florida," he said. 

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