Oct. 31--The numbers are out, the picture is stark, and the outlook is uncertain. According to Visit Florida, the state's tourist agency, hotel occupancy statewide sank 40 percent during the four weeks ending Oct. 17, and attendance at major attractions is down 20 percent. 

The drop translates into roughly a $364 million loss for the state's lodging industry compared to the same four weeks last year, according to Tom Flanigan, Visit Florida's spokesman. 

The agency made no forecast about what the crucial winter tourist season may hold, but said the immediate future was bleak. 

"The state's lodging industry has remained off and shows no immediate signs of recovery," Visit Florida's vice president of research, Barry Pitegoff, said. 

Randy Smith, CEO of industry trackers Smith Travel Research, said declines in tourist numbers were rooted in post-attack fears and the economic downturn. 

"I think people are not comfortable with flying," he said. "As long as that stays, destination markets like Florida will be very slow in coming back." 

Recovery's timeline, he said, was hard to predict. 

"Right now we're thinking that the industry seems to have stabilized at these very difficult levels," he said. "Realistically, if everything goes well with no further problems, we're looking at next summer. Whether levels will be back to where they were prior to this, I don't know." 

Still, in South Florida, the picture is beginning to brighten. 

Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties were each pleasantly surprised last weekend by better than expected showings at the Auto Show, the International Boat Show and Fantasy Fest, respectively. 

"Obviously we're moving in the right direction," said Bill Talbert, president of the Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau. 

"That's what we're hearing in the marketplace. Things are getting better, albeit slowly." 

Though tourist levels across the county were off by a third last week compared to the same time last year, they were 10 percent ahead of the week before. 

Hotel occupancy in Broward County through September and the first half of October was off 25 percent compared to the same time last year, according to Nicki Grossman, president of the Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention and Visitors Bureau. 

Final numbers are not in, but Grossman estimates for September, Broward County will have culled $210,000 less in bed taxes compared to last year, a 20 percent plunge, and the biggest drop in the county's history. 

Occupancy levels this September hovered at 43 percent, Grossman said, compared to 58 percent last year. For the first half of October, occupancy hit 52 percent, compared to 69 percent last year. 

Broward's visitors' bureau was allocated an additional half-million dollars last month in emergency funding from the county commission, monies that will go toward courting people within driving distance. 

The bureau this week requested an additional $1.2 million from the commission to further ratchet up advertising. 

Miami-Dade pieced together $2.2 million for extra marketing. Contributors included the City of Miami Beach, the Beacon Council, The Miami Herald Publishing Co. and the county government. 

In Monroe County, where nearly 90 percent of tourists arrive by car, September occupancy was off 15 percent compared to last year, according to Peter Illchuk, president of the Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West. For the first half of October, Illchuk estimated numbers were down 15 percent to 20 percent. 

The Keys' innkeepers are on pins and needles, Illchuk said, because to date, winter bookings are thin. 

"Right now we're seeing that advanced reservations going into the first and second quarter of '02 are considerably behind last year," he said. "It's partly because of the terrorist attacks, and largely because of economics." 

Florida stands to lose over $3 billion in tourism spending from mid-September through late December and $183 million in state sales tax revenue because of the drop-off. 

Theme parks are reporting better numbers. Their visitor levels dipped 40 percent right after Sept. 11 but have since regained ground, and now are off by one-fifth. RV parks and campgrounds have been relatively unaffected, Visit Florida reported. 

But in Central Florida, industry trackers said the tourist trough is cause for concern. "People don't want to gather in particular areas," Smith said. "Uncertainty has been injected in people's lives, and that's not a good situation for travel." 

-----To see more of The Miami Herald, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.herald.com 

(c) 2001, The Miami Herald. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.