�We interpret the results of the study to mean that Sydney is expected to slip over the crest quickly and position itself for future growth,� said Mr Ken Smith, Executive Vice President, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels.  �We expect that growth to be long and sustained, all things being equal�.

The study found that on the supply side, all host cities recorded considerable increases in supply in the two years leading up to the Olympics.  Los Angeles registered 8% growth, Seoul 64%, Barcelona 34% and Atlanta recorded a 14% increase.  Sydney is not looking too bad, recording a 20% increase to supply.

It was also found that LA and Seoul showed a contraction in supply the year after the Olympics.  Sydney will do likewise with the planned extraction of rooms around the Kings Cross area.  Unlike all four previous host cities, Sydney will not experience an increase in supply two years after the games as there is nothing under construction to outweigh the above declines.

�It is generally expected that Sydney will experience a decline in room nights demanded during 2001 compared to this year, even though the Tourism Forecasting Council (TFC) forecasts don�t bear that out,� continued Mr Smith.  �The expectation follows the trend experienced by the host cities studied, all of which recorded a decline in room nights demanded (RND) in the year following the Olympics, with the exception of Atlanta.  In line with past trends Sydney can expect an increase in RND the second year after the games�.

A comparison of demand volume two years after the Olympics versus demand levels two years prior to the event showed the following results: LA recorded increased demand of 8%, Seoul recorded a massive growth of 91%, whilst Barcelona and Atlanta registered a moderate increase of 4% and 5% respectively.  

An interpretation of the TFC forecasts by Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels suggests Sydney�s demand may end up 27% higher than the 1998 level.  But Sydney will need this volume to maintain a healthy market.  

An analysis of revenue per available room, a suedo indicator of value, showed varied outcomes across the four host cities: LA and Atlanta showed increases of 15% and 5% respectively.  Seoul experienced a massive 39% gorwth due to the build up of the games as the catalyst for the birth of the tourist market.  On the other hand, Barcelona was a disastrous 57% down due to continued construction creating an oversupply of rooms.  Room supply in that city recorded a 33% increase after the games and room rates could not cope.

�In Sydney we expect room rates to fall back to where they were in 1997 before they resume growth at a margin above inflation.  We expect the RevPAR result two years hence to possibly be 8% to 9% over that two years ago,� stated Mr Smith.