| After more than 2 months crisis, the major conclusions are as follows:
4* hotels, main loser of the conflict
In the European Union area, European 4* hotels publish a drop of 11.9
points of the occupancy rate in September and 12.1 points in October. The
occupancy rate of this category reaches �only� 68% in October against over
80% in October 2000. This major drop in demand may, of course, be accounted
for by the defection of American, but also Japanese, clientele. In France,
the occupancy rate, in October, loses 19.8 points in the 4* hotels (63.6%
in average, the usual performance during low months like January or February).
In Germany, the 4* occupancy rate loses 7.8 points in October to 64.7%
whereas the 4* hotels in Great Britain lose 15 points of occupancy. Main
European countries, which have the major part of the 4* hotels, have been
manhandled during those two months.
The most affected countries are Germany, Austria and Great Britain,
while the Southern countries resist.
The clientele shortage is principally experienced in Germany, Austria
and Great Britain. In Germany, after the panic of September (-9.5 points
of occupancy rate), the occupancy rate publishes a negative balance of
5.4 points only in October. In Austria, in September and in October, the
drop goes over 10 points. In that context, except in Italy in October,
the Southern countries are more or less in a good situation. In Spain,
the drop is limited, in Portugal the activity improves significantly.
Capital cities are the most affected.
Beyond the North/South segmentation, capital cities have been the most
affected. The most important drops have been reached in London, Paris or
Berlin. In Paris, in October, the average occupancy rate loses 18.7 points
(26.5 points in 4*). Those capital cities concentrate the major part of
the 4* hotels, but they also suffered from �a wind of panic�, which has
touched the biggest agglomerations. In customer�s spirit, those could make
up mains targets for new attacks.
Economy and budget categories and the provinces, globally not
hit by the crisis.
In the total European Union zone, we notice some small drops in terms
of occupancy rate in the 1* and 2* hotels. These drops are rather due to
the strong development of the supply than to the decrease of demand. For
example, near Paris, in �La Défense� zone, lots of new openings
occurred during the last few months: Ibis La Défense Courbevoie,
Etap Hotel Courbevoie La Défense and the complex of 295 rooms of
Première Classe � Campanile hotels Pont de Suresnes. More stable
and less subject to the variations, the economy and budget class resists
better because, on one hand the clientele mix is more widely composed with
a national clientele, and on the other hand because small lowering of budgets
incite companies to decide for less expensive, and finally because the
reinforcement of the national tourism improves those segments. Thus, in
provinces, in France, the drop of the average occupancy rate reaches 1.2
points only, to 70.5%.
Good resistance of the average daily rate.
In that context of high doubt and decrease of occupancy rates, average
daily rates remain more or less stable. Two groups of countries can be
distinguished: those which maintained their average daily rate or show
slight decreases, and those where drops are more pronounced. In Germany,
in Austria or in Great Britain, average daily rates tend to fall down significantly
(especially in September, in Germany). In the rest of Europe, average daily
rates seem to be stable like in Benelux, in Spain and in France (except
in the 4* hotels). One more time, average daily rates have dropped significantly
in capital cities, in Paris and above all in London.
European hoteliers react immediately.
Professionals seem, for the moment, to be quite and don�t panic. Instead
of dropping average daily rates, most of them applied advertising campaigns,
direct marketing or actions to develop customer loyalty. Thus, hospitality
incomes decrease during September and October (months which normally generate
the best benefits during the year) but globally, losses are lower than
in other parts of the world (of course in Arabic countries but also in
Asia). In Europe, hotel groups are very important, well-known all over
the world and they have very good ways of commercialisation and promotion.
Thus, the drop of the RevPAR goes over 10% only in Germany, Austria and
Great Britain in September, and in Austria, France, Italy and Great Britain
in October.
2001, saved because of a good first semester
Although the end of the year will probably be difficult for the European
hospitality industry, this year should be close to the results of 2000
in Europe. It will be difficult to equal or surpass the performance of
November 2000. Total incomes per available room are stable for the last
12 rolling months (-0.1%). November and December shouldn�t notice an increase.
Nevertheless, it is sure that hoteliers won�t fail better times, because
important efforts have been done during this period of crisis. |
