Sep. 18--The hotel and convention business may be in for a bumpy ride during the next few months. 

Executives can expect tough times as airlines cut schedules by 20 percent in the wake of last week's terrorist attacks. 

"I don't believe anyone in this room can deny that things have changed," said Gov. Roy Barnes, who spoke at a seminar on the outlook for Atlanta's hotel industry. 

"Is it serious? Yes," he said. "Is it cause for panic and alarm? No." 

The travel industry can expect some disruptions, particularly as airlines and hotels grapple with safety issues, which are likely to be costly. 

Georgia stands to benefit from leisure travelers who decide to drive to destinations closer to home. Last year, tourism pumped $16 billion into the state's economy. 

But the uncertainty will affect the city's lucrative convention business. 

So far, bookings for 2002 are slightly behind this year's. In 2002, the city will have 58 conventions. This year there were 61. 

The Decor Expo convention, scheduled to start Friday at the Georgia World Congress Center, has been canceled. The gathering for the retail picture framing industry was expected to draw about 14,000. 

Organizers canceled the event "out of respect for those who died in the tragic events ... and in appreciation for everyone's feelings of safety." 

Even if conventions stay on schedule, there are no guarantees that as many conventioneers will attend. 

"It's going to be very difficult," said Carey Rountree, executive vice president of the Atlanta Convention and Visitors Bureau. "We just have to wait and see what happens." 

Before the attack, PKF Consulting predicted a slump in the hotel industry. Then, occupancy at metro hotels was expected to drop 1.8 percent this year to 64 percent, the lowest rate since 1997. 

The average daily room rate was projected to rise 2.4 percent to $81.95. 

In 2002, occupancy was expected to increase 2.6 percent, with the average daily rate rising 2.4 percent. 

But those numbers aren't likely to hold, said Mark Woodworth, executive managing director at PKF Consulting's Hospitality Research Group. 

In 2002, the increase in occupancy is expected to be lower. 

"With all the airlines virtually cutting capacity by about 20 percent, it's going to be difficult and more inconvenient for people to travel," he said. "That's clearly a negative." 

That feeling was evident on Wall Street as well. 

Shares of hotel companies posted double-digit percentage losses as investors bet on a dramatic slowdown in the travel industry. 

Marriott International closed at $32.25, down $8.60. Four Seasons Hotels closed at $36.25, down $10.67. 

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(c) 2001, The Atlanta Journal and Constitution. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News. MAR,