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Q1 2019 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | April 24, 2019

By Daniel H. Lesser While the longer economic growth endures, intuitively the risk of recession rises. Despite GDP indicative of a slowing economy during Q4 2019, the U.S. economic expansion which commenced in June 2009, is soon approaching the longest post-World War II expansion with uninterrupted growth. Investors frequently ponder where we are in a cycle. Is the current economic climate most like 1995, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2008 or 2016? While history often rhymes, the reality is we are in 2019, which presents its own set of idiosyncratic risks and opportunities. Many economists have opined that expansions do not die of old age, rather t...

Q4 2018 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | January 24, 2019

By Daniel Lesser Economic growth, record low unemployment, relative low inflation, rising government spending, and tax reform have combined to produce one of the longest periods of sustained growth ever in the United States. 2018 was another record-breaking year for the U.S. hotel industry with new all-time high operating metrics including: annual occupancy, average daily rate, revenue per available room, room night demand, and available room nights. Results of the U.S. mid-term election are not likely to produce any immediate government policy changes and the American economy is now more than a decade into a growth cycle which has been...

Q3 2018 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | November 1, 2018

By Daniel Lesser What started as a bursting of the U.S. housing bubble between 2006 and 2007 and mushroomed into a failing subprime mortgage/credit market, ultimately resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Ten years ago, the Great Recession of 2008/2009 was ushered in by a full-blown international banking crisis sparked by the collapse of blue-chip investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Through the end of Q3 2018, Wall Street is enjoying another heyday as profits for commercial banks are at a record high, the stock market is in its longest bull run in history, the U.S. economy is humm...

Q2 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel H. Lesser | August 8, 2018

By Daniel Lesser Barring any black swan event(s), the near-term outlook for lodging remains very positive. Domestic and foreign investment, and institutional capital continue to be deployed into single assets and portfolios of all types and locations of US hotels. The second-longest recovery period in history endures, with a national unemployment rate at an 18-year low and robust consumer confidence across most sectors. As a result, the U.S. economy continues to exhibit very strong growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise as much as 3% this year with relatively mild inflation. Thus far, interest rate increases by the Fed...

Q1 2018 US Lodging Market Update, Strong Fundamentals

May 4, 2018

The US lodging industry continues to enjoy the benefits of strong economic fundamentals as metrics on spending, global trade, and various manufacturing indices signal that America's economy is poised for further growth. The US labor market continues to generate new jobs and further optimism is evident given the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. US demand for leisure and business (transient, group meeting, and convention) travel accommodations has continued to rise with growth in demand outpacing supply through the first quarter of 2018. Demand for transient accommodations in several markets (such as Houston and South Florida) has b...

Analysis Reveals Costly Impact of New York City’s Plan to Curb Hotel Development in M1 Zones

LW Hospitality Advisors | April 25, 2018

NEW YORK, April 25, 2018 -- Leading hotel industry analyst LW Hospitality Advisors has announced the findings of a comprehensive M1 Zoning Hotel Market Analysis completed in advance the City's decision whether to certify the Proposed Action as early as next week. The report identifies the potential unintended economic and social impacts for New York City if the proposed special permit to limit new hotel development in M1 zoning districts is adopted by the New York City Department of City Planning (DCP). As indicated by one of the report's authors, Robert Van Laer of LW Hospitality Advisors, if the special permit is granted, New ...

Q4 2017 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | January 8, 2018

By Daniel Lesser Driven by robust business and leisure travel, the U.S. hotel industry completed another year of record setting metrics including: Occupancy, Average Daily Rate, RevPAR, Available Rooms, Occupied Rooms, and Rooms Revenue. An extremely active and ferocious hurricane season during the summer months provided a boost to the extended-stay hotel segment but disrupted operations at many properties throughout Florida and Texas. While exacerbated in several submarkets, generally, the nation's new hotel supply pipeline is fairly muted with an annual rise of approximately 2 percent, which is similar to the corresponding increases i...

Dear Airbnb…

Daniel Lesser | December 5, 2017

By Daniel H. Lesser Airbnb started as an online marketplace founded by two unemployed entrepreneurs who seized upon an opportunity to earn money by renting three airbeds in their living space. Today, a significant amount of Airbnb's activity in cities such as New York and San Francisco does not originate from the listings of "regular people" who are merely renting out a spare room. Instead, professional landlords are removing multifamily stock from local markets and providing availability exclusively for tourists and business travelers. In some cases, landlords are even evicting residential tenants and jettisoning rent-controlled housin...


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