hotel outlook
Economic Headwinds and Geopolitical Tensions Will Likely Impact Hotel Performance Through 2024 According to PwC
Hospitality Directions | November 13, 2023
Leisure demand, while still strong, began to soften in the back half of this year for US hotels, as other parts of the world continued to reopen their vacation destinations and leisure travelers began to once again feel safe traveling abroad. Increases in individual business travel and group business have not yet been able to fully offset this softening. As a result, occupancy levels have declined in each of the past seven months, relative to comparable 2022 levels, and are expected to continue to be down during the remainder of this year and through at least the first quarter of 2024. Room rate growth had played a significant role in the ini...
Converging Factors: Is a Soft Landing Possible?
Aaron Szyf | October 3, 2023
With mixed economic data, economists—for over a year—have been warning of a possible recession sometime in 2023, though they seem to have consistently pushed the can down the road. By Aaron Szyf As we enter the final quarter of the year, is this recession still happening? And what does this mean for travel? Optimism, among some: To the delight of many, in recent weeks, the term “soft landing”—an ideal situation when the Fed can raise interest rates just enough to curb high inflation but without causing a recession—has been gaining traction. In fact, Goldman Sachs has significantly cut their recession odds over the nex...
Q2 Industry Perspectives: Looking Ahead for the Travel Industry
Jamie Mageau | August 18, 2023
By Jamie Mageau Over the last several weeks, many travel businesses released their Q2 earnings and shared their latest expectations. These insights and perspectives help us understand how some of the largest corporate travel players are viewing the state of the economy and its impact on the travel industry as well as opportunities or barriers on the horizon that may impact their continued growth. Here is a deeper dive into their perspectives. Leisure demand normalizing and returning to pre-pandemic trends Hilton CEO, Chris Nassetta: Leisure demand in the U.S. remained strong but grew more modestly year-over-year due to tougher compariso...
Healthy Outlook for Europe Hotels: Corporate Demand Recovering, Leisure Travel Remains Resilient
May 24, 2023
Analysis by: Robin Rossmann, Will Anns Europe hotel performance caused some reason for concern during the first quarter of 2023, but momentum points to healthy performance ahead for gateway cities and secondary markets thanks to recovering corporate demand as well as resilient leisure travel. Solid overall since the last wave of COVID Despite slow Q1 performance, hotels showed better yield percentage change than other forms of commercial real estate in Europe, such as office, retail and industrial space. Additionally, when expanding performance out to a 10-month view, top-line and bottom-line metrics trended well in nominal and real (inf...
CBRE Hotels Again Raises Outlook for 2023, Expects Strong Growth Through Summer
CBRE Group, Inc. | May 24, 2023
Dallas – May 24, 2023 – CBRE is again raising its forecast for hotel performance this year, as stronger-than-expected demand and more modest supply growth drive occupancy gains. CBRE has revised its forecast for 2023 revenue per available room (RevPAR) to $97.89, up 6.0% year-over-year, and an increase of $0.43 from its previous forecast. The positive revision is predicated on a 65-basis-point (bps) increase in expected occupancy compared with the previous forecast issued in February 2023. Average daily rate (ADR) is now expected to increase by 3.7% in 2023, down from the previous forecast of 4.2%, owing to slightly lower inflation exp...
Hotel Industry Update – Latest Presentations Now Available at HotelLawyer.com
Jim Butler | May 8, 2023
By Jim Butler The 30th edition of Meet the Money® 2023 national hotel finance and investment conference was held May 1 – 3, 2023 at the Hyatt Regency LAX. Some very insightful and informative presentations were made at the conference about the national economy, the national and California hotel markets, the latest version of the ISHC’s CapEx study, the Lodging Industry Investment Council’s Top 10, and three different views of the lodging industry’s performance and prospects. To download these free presentations, please go to www.hotellawyer.com, click on the RESOURCE tab of the website, and then scroll down and select “Hotel Ind...
An Updated 2020 Hotel Outlook | CBRE U.S. ViewPoint
March 27, 2020
Economic conditions are deteriorating quickly with the Covid-19 outbreak causing a sharp drop in economic activity. Key Findings: CBRE expects GDP growth will slow to 0.4% in 2020. U.S. RevPAR will decline by 37% in 2020, with a contraction of more than 60% in Q2. Demand will decline by 28% in 2020; ADRs are expected to decline 11% in 2020. The most complex constraint impairing travel comes from social distancing efforts and travel or group gathering restrictions on global populations. Properties that primarily cater to discretionary travel will be affected most, i.e. luxury, upper upscale, urban, airport, and resort pro...
Fitch Revises North American CMBS Hotel Outlook to Negative; Coronavirus Adds to Expected Decline
Fitch Ratings | March 13, 2020
Fitch Ratings has revised its North American CMBS hotel asset performance outlook to negative from stable/negative. The negative outlook revision for the sector is due to several factors including new supply and weakening economic conditions. Fitch expects RevPAR growth to flatten out in 2020 and then decrease by a low single digit percent in 2021. The impact from the coronavirus will exacerbate hotel cash flow declines and rising expenses from wages and real estate taxes may exceed revenue growth. Hotels will be the first property type to be affected by the coronavirus due to reduced tourism and travel, and a slowdown in economic activ...
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