hotel forecast
HVS Outlook 2023: Beyond the Recovery
Anne R. Lloyd-Jones | January 23, 2023
By Anne R. Lloyd-Jones, McKenna Luke Despite persistent high inflation, an active Fed, and accelerating recessionary concerns, the lodging industry sustained the strong growth recorded in Q2 and Q3 of 2022 through the balance of the year. Transient demand continued to lead the recovery, surpassing 2019 levels in 19 of the past 21 months. The leisure segment remains a dominant influence, with business demand returning at a slower pace, although increasing levels of “bleisure” demand are blurring the distinction between these two sectors. Group demand rebounded to roughly 80% of 2019 levels; after the initial return of small to medium-si...
Consumer Travel Outlook Better in the Short-Term Amid Increasing Cost Pressures, Declining Travel Disruption and Fewer COVID-19 Concerns
STR | December 5, 2022
Via STR’s Market Recovery Monitory through 12 November 2022, a pandemic-era high 52% of global hotel markets achieved real (inflation-adjusted) revenue per available room (RevPAR) above 2019 levels on a 28-day moving basis. In the U.S., 62% of markets exceeded their pre-pandemic comparable during the period. In the face of mounting economic challenges, the war in Ukraine and soaring inflation in many parts of the world, these encouraging results highlight the continued resilient performance of the global hospitality industry. Building on previous research conducted throughout the pandemic, STR canvassed opinion among consumers in No...
CBRE Hotels Raises Outlook for Second Half of 2022, Expects Continued Growth in 2023
CBRE Group, Inc. | September 7, 2022
Dallas – September 7, 2022 – CBRE is raising its forecast for hotel performance on the heels of industry gains in Q2 2022 and the expectation of slightly positive GDP growth in 2023. CBRE has revised its forecast for the second half of 2022 to a gain in revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent year-over-year. The revision is predicated on a 3.5 percentage point increase in expected average daily rate (ADR) growth compared to the previous forecast issued in May 2022, as well as a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE’s demand forecast. U.S. hotel industry per...
NYU Conference Takeaways: Despite Some Challenges, the Hospitality Sector Is Still Looking Good
Rod Clough | June 15, 2022
By Rod Clough The tale of the looming recession was mixed, with some forecasting a shallow, short-lived recession, and others expecting a more significant impact. The overall sentiment remains a positive one, and that cash flow growth should continue. Despite high inflation, other economic markers, such as consumer goods, mortgage default rates, and low unemployment rates, look positive. ADR will reach new highs in 2022, with further, albeit more muted, growth expected through 2023. With little push-back being seen in the market on higher ADRs, hotel owners are able to tap into this revenue source to combat higher operating costs, infla...
Lodging Market Should Recover Fully by 2023
CBRE Group, Inc. | May 31, 2022
Drive-to and Leisure Hotels Continue to Perform Best Dallas – May 31, 2022 – CBRE is raising its forecasts of hotel performance for 2022 and beyond, based on Q1 2022 strength, continued slowing of construction activity, higher inflation and continued optimism about employment and economic growth. CBRE’s forecasts call for a full recovery in average daily rate (ADR) in 2022 and in demand and revenue per available room (RevPAR) in 2023. Despite headwinds from the Omicron variant, Q1 RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR)and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ...
CBRE Forecasts Continued Hotel Recovery in 2022 Despite Increasing Risks
CBRE Group, Inc. | March 21, 2022
Dallas, TX – March 21, 2022 – CBRE Hotels Research has raised its forecast for 2022 average daily rate (ADR), Occupancy and Revenue per available room (RevPAR) to reflect the stronger-than-expected fundamental performance in the fourth quarter. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. CBRE made the changes despite heightened uncertainty and increasingly limited visibility due to geopolitical risks and inflationary pressure. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR to reach 2019 no...
2021 Hotel Forecast
Robert Rauch | October 1, 2020
By Robert Rauch The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to the hospitality industry, so when it comes to mapping a post-pandemic recovery, it’s clear that we are in uncharted territory. The Lodging Conference hosted Bernard Bauhmohl, Chief Economist of the Economic Outlook Group. His remarks related to vaccines, treatments, lack of stimulus package and election results led us to believe we are in for a longer ride along the trough of this recession. Our assessment is that we are at the midpoint with Q2 and Q3 behind us, two more quarters of recession will put us at one full year, close to the average length of a rece...
Annual Hotel Occupancy Forecast to Decline 29% Over the Next 12 Months With $75 Billion in Projected Revenue Losses
Horwath HTL | August 17, 2020
Magid HTL Forecast Tracker, analyzed in conjunction with Horwath HTL, says COVID-driven declines span both business and leisure travel intentions MINNEAPOLIS, August 17, 2020 – The ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a 29% decline in annual hotel occupancy over the next 12 months, resulting in a projected revenue loss for the industry of about $75 Billion in room revenue alone. The estimate is according to the Magid HTL Forecast Tracker, analyzed in conjunction with Horwath HTL, the world’s oldest, largest, and most experienced hotel, tourism, and leisure-consulting brand. The forecast shows declines being driven...
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