daniel lesser

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daniel lesser

Q1 2019 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | April 24, 2019

By Daniel H. Lesser While the longer economic growth endures, intuitively the risk of recession rises. Despite GDP indicative of a slowing economy during Q4 2019, the U.S. economic expansion which commenced in June 2009, is soon approaching the longest post-World War II expansion with uninterrupted growth. Investors frequently ponder where we are in a cycle. Is the current economic climate most like 1995, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2008 or 2016? While history often rhymes, the reality is we are in 2019, which presents its own set of idiosyncratic risks and opportunities. Many economists have opined that expansions do not die of old age, rather t...

Q4 2018 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | January 24, 2019

By Daniel Lesser Economic growth, record low unemployment, relative low inflation, rising government spending, and tax reform have combined to produce one of the longest periods of sustained growth ever in the United States. 2018 was another record-breaking year for the U.S. hotel industry with new all-time high operating metrics including: annual occupancy, average daily rate, revenue per available room, room night demand, and available room nights. Results of the U.S. mid-term election are not likely to produce any immediate government policy changes and the American economy is now more than a decade into a growth cycle which has been...

Q3 2018 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | November 1, 2018

By Daniel Lesser What started as a bursting of the U.S. housing bubble between 2006 and 2007 and mushroomed into a failing subprime mortgage/credit market, ultimately resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Ten years ago, the Great Recession of 2008/2009 was ushered in by a full-blown international banking crisis sparked by the collapse of blue-chip investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Through the end of Q3 2018, Wall Street is enjoying another heyday as profits for commercial banks are at a record high, the stock market is in its longest bull run in history, the U.S. economy is humm...

Q2 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel H. Lesser | August 8, 2018

By Daniel Lesser Barring any black swan event(s), the near-term outlook for lodging remains very positive. Domestic and foreign investment, and institutional capital continue to be deployed into single assets and portfolios of all types and locations of US hotels. The second-longest recovery period in history endures, with a national unemployment rate at an 18-year low and robust consumer confidence across most sectors. As a result, the U.S. economy continues to exhibit very strong growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise as much as 3% this year with relatively mild inflation. Thus far, interest rate increases by the Fed...

Q4 2017 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | January 8, 2018

By Daniel Lesser Driven by robust business and leisure travel, the U.S. hotel industry completed another year of record setting metrics including: Occupancy, Average Daily Rate, RevPAR, Available Rooms, Occupied Rooms, and Rooms Revenue. An extremely active and ferocious hurricane season during the summer months provided a boost to the extended-stay hotel segment but disrupted operations at many properties throughout Florida and Texas. While exacerbated in several submarkets, generally, the nation's new hotel supply pipeline is fairly muted with an annual rise of approximately 2 percent, which is similar to the corresponding increases i...

Dear Airbnb…

Daniel Lesser | December 5, 2017

By Daniel H. Lesser Airbnb started as an online marketplace founded by two unemployed entrepreneurs who seized upon an opportunity to earn money by renting three airbeds in their living space. Today, a significant amount of Airbnb's activity in cities such as New York and San Francisco does not originate from the listings of "regular people" who are merely renting out a spare room. Instead, professional landlords are removing multifamily stock from local markets and providing availability exclusively for tourists and business travelers. In some cases, landlords are even evicting residential tenants and jettisoning rent-controlled housin...

Q3 2017 U.S. Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser | October 19, 2017

By Daniel Lesser As the world's economy strengthens, the outlook for America is bright, evidenced by heightened business and consumer confidence. Today, the U.S. is a goldilocks economy with GDP growth anticipated to remain between 2 and 3 percent, unemployment forecast to remain stable, and little evidence of inflation or deflation. While the Federal Open Market Committee has held the federal funds rate flat, experts expect several small increases through 2019. Some prognosticators perceive current record setting U.S. stock market indices may indicate exuberance, and a signal of a peak in the business cycle with potential for economic ...

Hotels See Enthusiasm Amid Headwinds in Q2

Daniel Lesser | July 18, 2017

By Daniel Lesser NEW YORK CITY—Although the eight-year bull market in the US lodging industry is showing signs of deceleration, the sector posted record performance metrics on a national level during 2016 including: 65.5 percent occupancy, $124 average daily rate, $81 revenue per available room, 1.8 billion available room nights, 1.2 billion occupied room nights, and $149 billion in rooms revenue. Q1 2017 compared with Q1 2016 indicates a continued increase in every major category of measurement. Although US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains muted, anticipated legislation relating to tax reform and infrastructure spendin...


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