Jim Butler (Jeffer, Mangels, Butler & Marmaro LLP, Partner & Chairman, Global Hospitality Group): There is a fundamental change underway in consumers. Current studies show that consumers, especially more affluent Americans, are strongly trending to a "I want what I want when I want it" and "When I want it is right now!" attitude. The companies that can gratify these consumers will be the winners. 

Stephen Rushmore (HVS International, President & Founder): Technology will greatly reduce the need for business people to travel. This declining market segment will be offset by enormous growth in tourist / vacation travel from the middle class in developing countries and from senior citizens. 

Randy Smith (Smith Travel Research, Chairman): Over the next 10 to 25 years, the shift in age of the U.S. population as baby boomers begin to approach retirement will have a tremendous
impact on the volume of travelers, their level of spending and their preferences. In addition, demographic trends globally indicate a growing middle class that will affect the hospitality industry worldwide. 

Kapila Anand (KPMG, Partner, National Director - Hospitality Assurance Services): I agree that aging baby boomers will greatly influence consumer trends in where and how they choose to travel for business and leisure and in where they choose to live. But they will also search for new sources of amenity-rich assisted and senior living which could be a competitive advantage for the stronger hospitality brands that are expanding into senior living. 

Peter Yesawich (Yesawich, Pepperdine & Brown, President & CEO): I think two factors are contributing. "Time Poverty"  the perceived decline in leisure time and corresponding decline in average length of stay. But you will also see more family and single-person travel:  for families, because vacations will become a surrogate for family time missed at home, and from single persons, because of their growing demographic significance (25% of all U.S. households and growing). And the second is "Personalization" one size no longer fits all in the industry, and guests will soon expect very personalized accommodations. 

Global Hospitality Advisor: Take those trends and tell me how this translates into business decisions for hotel chains, with regard to branding, pricing, reservations, distribution or guest loyalty. 

Rushmore: The Internet will be the primary form of communication. Only those hotel brands that control the Internet will survive. 

Yesawich: I think we'll see a growing preference for brands which is already now professed by 7 out of 10 leisure travelers and 8 out of 10 business travelers. The ascent of "Techknows"   people who embrace new technology and use it to their advantage both personally and professionally... the implications for distribution are profound. 

Butler: Listening to the consumer and delivering the product and service that the consumer wants will earn a disproportionate share of business and profits. This extends to pricing, service and the very definition of our business. We need to look to senior living, cruise lines, entertainment and all aligned hospitality arenas to select the best of each in order to satisfy our customers. 

Global Hospitality Advisor:Clearly, the Internet and information systems will transform the way hotel companies complete transactions, including collecting and disseminating information. How pervasive will technology be in the industry in the next decade? 

Anand: Although hospitality companies are not currently reporting significant amounts of booked revenue from the Internet,  Internet, E-commerce will have a greater influence on both the marketing and revenue management strategies of hospitality companies. These technology advances will also allow hospitality companies to enhance E-commerce purchasing solutions and to expand their customer database management strategies to cross-sell revenue from related services such as golf courses, timeshares, cruises, casinos, assisted living, etc. 

Yesawich: We're going to see growing use of the Internet in travel planning - 3 out of  10 business travelers used the Internet to plan some aspect of a business trip last year, and the figure for leisure travelers was 1 out of 4. Those percentages will increase. 

Smith: The extent that video could eventually have an impact on business and personal travel  - that's worth keeping an eye on. The ability to conduct meetings and interact without having to endure the stress of travel will impact the industry within the next 20 years. Technology will offer the industry opportunities in information management, marketing and guest tracking. Applications within the guestroom will change the room from merely a place to sleep to an area for work and entertainment utilizing access to the Internet and e-mail. 

Global Hospitality Advisor: We've talked so far about the revenue side of the equation. Let's shift from top line to bottom line. What are your thoughts about the changes in operations or management. 

Rushmore: The industry will find that consolidation has not achieved the anticipated efficiencies. And so the consolidated hotel companies will be broken up. 

Anand:  Skilled labor shortages and turnover rate increases will continue to challenge the industry. Attracting and retaining qualified personnel to ensure the level of service and maintain brand value will impact human resource policies in areas such as recruiting, performance feedback and training. Also, hotel companies will he forced to develop innovative incentive plans or other compensation and/or reward programs to motivate personnel beyond the traditional plans. 

Butler:  Financing will be critical. Availability and cost of hotel financing controls development and affects the hotel market's liquidity, demand and valuations. We learned in the 1989-93 cycle that hotels trade at cap rates well into the teens with little debt financing, and can go into single digits for the tight property with ample financing. When new development is spurred by construction and permanent financing, developers design new hotel rooms, adding to the supply and reducing occupancies, ADRs and ultimately RevPAR. It also affects operations as owners are more willing to spend generously to upgrade, maintain and service their hotels when profits are high, but it is "slash and burn" when the mortgage is about to be foreclosed. Financing also shapes who the players are and what they do
sometimes favoring quieter private capital and joint ventures, other times fueling acquisitions and consolidation, or tapping public markets. Financing will continue to be one of the most important factors shaping our industry. 

Global Hospitality Advisor:What is the "macro-idea" that hotel managers and owners should intently watch in the coming decade? 

Yesawich: The five most significant trends likely to affect the performance of the industry in the years ahead are "Time Poverty," the rapid growth of "Techknows," personalization, demographics and branding. 

Anand: Technology will change the way companies do business; the successful companies will be the ones that realize that effectively managing subsequent organizational changes takes time and resources but also pays a high rate of return. 

Butler: Same as it has always been: Listen to the customer and follow the money. Whether you are looking at finance or guest revenue ... listen to the customer and follow the money.