Although Germans' total annual trip volume has declined over the last couple of years, the market is still considered to hold huge growth potential for the future, and particularly for the Pacific Asia region. This is one of the main conclusions of a survey recently commissioned by PATA from Travel & Tourism Futures, Germany 

The report, which was just presented to PATA's Asia Business Forum in Kathmandu, Nepal, shows that despite the country's present economic difficulties, coupled with high unemployment and a relatively low Deutschmark, close to 41 million foreign holidays are expected to be taken by Germans in t998. 

Moreover, forecasts from TUI, Germany's leading tour operator, point to a 10 percent increase in travel to the PATA region this year, with similar growth rates predicted for 1999 and 2000. Forecasts from other major German tour operators are equally, or almost as bullish 

The report identifies and profiles two types of German consumers with the greatest potential for travel to the PATA region. These are the "health-conscious" and the "dynamic and egocentric." These two groups not only have the highest travel intensities, but they are most willing to travel outside Europe. They also tend to be younger and of higher income and education levels. 

Sun, sea and relaxation have been, and will continue to be, the major incentives for Germans travelling abroad on holiday. However, a number of special-interest markets are identified and analysed in the report, including surfing, sailing, diving, golf, health and fitness, canoeing, cruises, fishing and hiking. There is also a growing interest in and concern for the environment, the report says. 
 
 

The Pacific Asia region, which attracts some 25 percent of all long-haul German trips, is extremely competitive, the report says. Hotel rates and airline seats have been tumbling daily in response to exchange rate fluctuations in these markets. Yet, while the extremely favourable exchange rates are a definite plus, the region cannot afford to compete on price alone. 

'PATA destinations must seek to be more innovative," the report says, "and bring new services and products to the market." One area, for example, where the Caribbean has been very innovative is in all-inclusive resorts. Some resorts in the Caribbean already include clothes, tips, government taxes, all meals and drinks, sports equipment and instruction within the price of a room! 

In order to stay ahead of the game, the report warns, the Pacific Asia region will need to develop its own similarly attractive packages. 

The complete report is available to PATA members for US$175 and to non-PATA members for US$500. For further information about the report, contact the PATA Strategic Information Centre in Singapore. Tel: (65) 223-7854. Fax: (65) 225-6842. Email: [email protected] 

Markets 

Good news for VFR traffic into the region (people visiting friends and family). There are close to 400,000 U.S. passport holders living in Pacific Asia and about 3.3 million around the world. The regional totals hold some surprises. While the Philippines, as might he expected, heads the list in number of American residents, there are only 10,000 in China, although Americans are probably the largest single foreign community in the country 

The results of an American Express Travel survey suggest that Australia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore all feature among the U.K. market's favourite long-haul destinations - ranking, in order of popularity, from fifth to ninth places. The main competition comes from California, Florida, Barbados and New York (in first to fourth positions), according to the survey Tourists looking for an alternative to Asia are increasingly being attracted by Australia and the South Pacific. 

A number of key destinations in the region registered strong double-digit growth in arrivals from South Africa in 1997. They were up 19.1 percent to Australia, for example, 13.4 percent to Chinese Taipei, 13.0 percent to Hong Kong and 24.7 percent to Japan. However, prospects for 1998 are much less bullish since the South African rand has fallen 35 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past 12 months. So this is one market which will not find Asia less expen-sive this year 
 

Destinations 

Tourist arrivals in Thailand increased by 3.2 percent in the first four months of 1998. Although the level of growth was down on the 5.4 percent target set by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), there were some very positive trends. Arrivals from Hong Kong rose by 40.1 percent, and Singapore and Chinese Taipei increased by 37.7 percent and 17.0 percent respectively, according to the TAT figures. Arrivals from Europe were up 15.2 percent, with Russia and eastern Europe showing the strongest individual growth. 

Despite its increased focus on Europe and the U.S., the Australian Tourist Commission (ATC) is still committed to Asia. But it is shifting its integrated brand marketing to try to attract market sectors less affected by the financial crisis. As an example, its promotions are moving away from the younger Japanese traveler- and notably the female office workers - to the more mature, 45-plus age group. The ATC is also looking to develop emerging markets such as India and China. Australia was granted approved destina-tion status by the Chinese government in late 1998. 

During the past three years, Sri Lanka's tourism industry has attracted US$85 million in investments, including US$30 million in foreign direct investment for both large- and small-scale projects. These were mainly hotels, holiday resorts, guesthouses and recreational and other projects aimed at attracting foreign and local tourists. Several new hotel projects are planned in addition to the expansion of existing hotels. Hotel capacity is targeted to increase to 23,000 rooms by 2004 from the current 12,000. 

For once, Asia's financial crisis is not the only culprit blamed for the Pacific Asia destination's down-turn in arrivals. A 10 percent decline in foreign arrivals in Vietnam during the first half of 1998 is attributed partly to the World Cup soccer tournament in France! Admittedly, France is one of Vietnam's leading markets, but this would seem to be a bit steep. 
 

Aviation 

Remember all the talk three years ago about Hong Kong's airport departure tax being possibly the highest in the region, or even the world? It was then HK$150, or US$20, and there were plans to increase it to HK$200. But many other airports in the region quickly bumped up their own taxes, so if Hong Kong's ever was the highest, it was soon overtaken. And will those airports follow Hong Kong this time? First it cut the rate to HK$100, and with the opening of its new airport in early July, it cut the tax again, by half, to HK$50 (US$6.40). 

Cash-strapped Asian countries could take a close look at airport sales in Australia which have been a major source of revenue for the national government-some US$2.5 billion since the privatisation process began two years ago. The government also says that airport privatisation has not only been a financial success. It has also ensured that Australia has an efficient aviation system. Sydney's Kingsford-Smith airport is likely to be auctioned off after the Olympics in 2000. 
 

Hotels & Resorts 

The findings of a region-wide survey by Horwath Asia Pacific-carried out among hotel investors, lenders and hotel management companies-suggest that depreciated local currencies and profits now leave little possibility of servicing the U.S. dollar debt associated with many of the more recent hotel developments. This, in turn, is expected to reverse the direction of equity capital flows-from Asia to other regions, back into Asia. More Asian-owned hotel assets in Europe, Australia and North America will be liquidated and non-Asian investment in the Asian hotel sector will increase. 

A survey by the hotel Novotel in New York suggests that when travelling, men and women behave differently: 

The royal touch? Hotel owners come in all shapes and sizes. But coming too late to be able to use names like Prince, Princess, Royal, and Regal, are two of the royal owners of hotels. Will they bring a different style to hotel operations? The two, both of whom plan new developments in Asia, are the Sultan of Brunei, and Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, a nephew of the king of Saudi Arabia. 

The London-based Audley group is owned by the Sultan of Brunei (through the Brunei Investment Agency) and this year it has begun to promote its name as a group. It owns the Dorchester in London, the Meurice in Paris, Beverly Hills in Los Angeles, Nusa Dua Beach in Bali, and two hotels in Singapore-the Crowne Plaza and Grand Hyatt. Audley is looking to expand by one hotel a year over the next five years. 

Prince Alwaleed (through his Kingdom Holding) has equity in three hotel groups-U.S.-based Fairmont (50 percent), Canada-based Four Seasons (23 percent) and (not yet finalised) Switzerland-based Movenpick (30 percent). Kingdom also has a three percent share in Singapore's HPL, which has investment interests in Hard Rock Hotels. 

Despite new facilities and attractions, there has been a drop in visitation at Japan's leading theme parks. Reports indicate a four percent attendance drop at Tokyo Disneyland to 17 million in the year through March 1998-although Disney itself has not revealed details. Other estimates indicate a five percent drop at the country's second largest attraction, Sea Paradise, to seven million, a three percent drop at Huis Ten Bosch to four million, no change at Spa Land's four million, a 26 percent drop at Suzuka Circuit to three million, a 16 percent drop at Toshimaen Park to three million, and a 23 percent drop at Expoland in Osaka to two million. Nonetheless, more parks are on the way 

Is this Asia's answer to Disney's Animal Kingdom-a park based on Japan's favourite animal, the motor vehicle? Toyota plans to open a US$362 million, 73,000-square-metre, car theme park in Tokyo in 1999. The park will comprise three pavilions and two driving courses. 

The pavilions will display the past, present and future of automobiles-including a salesman's dream line-up of 100 current Toyota models - as well as a virtual-reality section and museums. The driving courses will allow visitors to take test runs in cars, including futuristic electric vehicles. The project will also have a shopping mall and a general entertainment centre including a 44 - lane bowling alley and Ferris wheel.