News for the Hospitality Executive
Prices and Lodging Risk:
June 7, 2011, Atlanta, GA – Based on a recent analysis conducted by PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR), the U.S. lodging industry will see minimal disruption if oil prices reach $125 per barrel price in 2011. However, if prices surge to $150 a barrel, the recovery that U.S. hotels are currently enjoying could be severely curtailed.
The results of the analysis have been published in a special report entitled Oil Prices and Lodging Risk. John B. (Jack) Corgel, the Robert C. Baker Professor of Real Estate at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration and senior advisor to PKF-HR, and Jamie Lane, Research Associate, are the authors of the report.
“As the price of oil has shot up, and then down, over the past few months, many U.S. hoteliers have worried about the impact that oil prices could have on their business,” said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR. ”Our analysis found that when oil prices increase beyond normal levels, individual consumer and business spending power is reduced, which in turn has a negative multiplier effect throughout the economy in general and the lodging industry specifically. Based on our study, oil prices above $125 a barrel exceed ‘normal’ levels and would have an increasingly negative effect on hotel operating performance.”
The PKF-HR Hotel Horizons® econometric forecasting model relies on economic data from Moody’s Analytics (Moody’s) to project future hotel demand levels. In April of 2011 Moody’s Analytics created two “oil spike” economic forecasts around a hypothetical future where prices increase to either a high of $125 or $150 a barrel by the fourth quarter 2011. PKF-HR used these hypothetical economic scenarios to forecast RevPAR for the U.S. lodging industry through 2013.
For comparison purposes, the March 2011 Hotel Horizons® forecast served as the baseline lodging forecast for the analysis. This baseline forecast reflects Moody’s modeled fundamental price of oil ($93.53) coupled with a premium of around $5.00 to account for the supply uncertainty created by ongoing unrest in the Middle East.
“The U.S. economy is highly dependent on a steady supply of affordable oil, and in turn, so is the lodging industry,” said Corgel. “Therefore, it is vital to understand the impact of high oil prices on the overall economy.” According to Moody Analytics, the U.S. economy could weather a rise in oil prices to $125 per barrel, but a surge to $150 would trigger a mild recession. In the $150 per barrel scenario, Moody’s forecast of real GDP growth falls by a maximum of 2.6 percentage points to an annualized low of 1.5 percent in 2012.
When applying the two alternative economic forecast scenarios to the Hotel Horizons® forecasting model we see oil’s dampening effect on RevPAR growth. The RevPAR gains observed in the beginning of 2011 will not continue if oil prices move as scripted in both Moody’s oil spike scenarios.
In the March 2011 Hotel Horizons® baseline forecast, U.S. hotel RevPAR is projected to increase a combined 16.3 percent over the course of 2011 and 2012. “When we applied the economics of the two alternative economic scenarios to our forecast model we saw modest changes in RevPAR growth in 2011, but fairly significant differences in 2012,” said Lane. “Over the two year period (2011 and 2012), RevPAR would increase just 10.1 percent if oil prices reach the $125. However, if oil prices were to surge to $150 a barrel, RevPAR growth would be limited to a very modest 6.9 percent.”
Looking specifically at location segments, PKF-HR then tested which ones are more susceptible to an increase in oil prices. “Since many hotels are travel destinations, one logically can assume that increases in the price of getting to the destination may decrease the demand,” noted Corgel.
“Not surprisingly we anticipate that hotels with ‘drive-to’ business will see the first impacts of increased oil prices; this includes interstate, suburban hotels, and resort locations near major metropolitan areas. We then expect declines to migrate to ‘fly-to’ resort locations once other hedging strategies, i.e. taking the train, reducing other vacation expenditures, etc. are exhausted,” Lane said.
“Moody’s highlights the low probability of these oil spike scenarios. We believe that oil prices could have a profound impact on future revenue should those prices either get ahead of the economy from speculation or if political unrest accelerates. For these reasons, the price of oil should be on everyone’s radar when planning for the future,” concluded Corgel.
To download a complimentary copy of the Oil Prices and Lodging Risk report, please visit www.pkfc.com/oilpricesandlodgingrisk.
About PKF CONSULTING USA
Headquartered in San Francisco, PKF Consulting USA (www.pkfc.com) is an advisory and real estate firm specializing in the hospitality industry. PKF Consulting USA is owned by FirstService Corporation and is a subsidiary of Colliers International. The firm operates two companies: PKF Consulting USA and PKF Hospitality Research. The firm has offices in New York, Boston, Portland, Indianapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Atlanta, Asheville, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Bozeman, and San Francisco.
PKF Consulting USA offers hotel appraisal and hotel valuation services, hotel market studies, hospitality litigation support, and hotel advisory services. PKF Hospitality Research produces Hotel Horizons®, an econometrically based hotel forecast, BenchmarkerSM, a customized comparative hotel benchmark report, and Annual Trends® in the Hotel Industry, a historical hotel financial publication featuring rich hotel statistics, as well as hotel research services.
PKF Hospitality Research
3475 Lenox Road, Suite 720
Atlanta, GA 30326 20170
(404) 842-1150, ext 222
Chris Daly or Jerry Daly (media)
Daly Gray Public Relations
620 Herndon Parkway
Herndon, VA 20170
Reports U.S. Hotel Profits Grew 9.8 Percent in 2010; Profit Growth Rate
Varies by Hotel Segment / May 2011
Hospitality Research Amends U.S. Hotel RevPAR Recovery Upward to 7.1%
compared to Previous 5.6% Forecast / March 2011
Research's December Hotel Horizons® Shows U.S. Lodging Demand
Growth at 7.8% for 2010, Combined with Rise in Occupancy Rates, RevPAR
Gain Forecasted at 5.6% Increase for Year / December 2010
Research Releases Hotel Horizons® Forecast Accuracy Assessment;
Lessons Can Be Applied To 2011 Budgeting Process / June 2010
Hospitality Research Updates Forecast to Show U.S. RevPAR Growth of
1.7% in 2010 While Profits Will Contract 1.4% / May 2010
Down: New PKF Hospitality Research Survey Results Show Hotel Profits
Declined a Record 35.4 Percent in 2009; Greatest Annual Decline Since
Tracking Began in the 1930's / May 2010
Hotels Should Enjoy Double-digit Revenue Growth by 2012 According to
PKF Hospitality Research / March 2010
|2010 Will Continue to be a Tough Year for U.S. Hotel Owners and Operators; 2010 U.S Lodging ADR Now Forecasted by PKF at Minus 1.5% from 2009 ADR / December 2009|