Global Travel & Tourism Poised for Continued
Growth in 2005
NEW DELHI, INDIA and LONDON, UK � April 8 � The World Travel & Tourism
Council (WTTC) released its 2005 Travel & Tourism forecasts for 174
countries and the world and an assessment of the impact of the Indian Ocean
Tsunami on the industry today at the 5th Global Travel & Tourism Summit
in New Delhi, India.
Releasing forecasts prepared on its behalf by Oxford Economic Forecasting,
which follow the United Nations standard for Tourism Satellite Accounting,
the WTTC reported that the record robust recovery started in 2004 should
continue through 2005 at a healthy rate. WTTC also reported that
the December 2004 tsunami, which struck some tourism destinations around
the Indian Ocean, had a significant, but limited overall impact on the
tourism economies.
Worldwide for 2005, WTTC is forecasting:
-
Demand: Encompassing all components of Travel & Tourism consumption,
investment, government spending and exports is expected to grow 5.4% (real
terms) and total $6.2 trillion in 2005. The ten-year annualized growth
(2006-2015) forecast is 4.6% per annum illustrating the outlook for strong
long-term growth.
-
Visitor Exports: The continued strength of the Pound and Euro against
the US dollar, is expected to push Visitor Exports to nearly $820 billion
in 2005 or real growth of 7.3%.
-
GDP: Travel & Tourism�s contribution to the world economy is
illustrated by the direct industry impact of 3.8% of total GDP and the
combined direct and indirect impact of the Travel & Tourism economy
expected to total 10.6% in 2005.
-
Employment: The global Travel & Tourism industry is expected
to produce 2.1 million new jobs in 2005 over it�s 2004 level to total 74.2
million jobs or 2.8% of total world employment. The broader perspective
of the Travel & Tourism economy (direct and indirect) is expected to
create more than 6.5 million new jobs for the world economy for a total
of 221.6 million jobs dependent on Travel & Tourism or 8.3% of total
employment.
WTTC President, Jean-Claude Baumgarten said, �We turned the corner in 2004
and it�s full steam ahead for Travel & Tourism in many countries and
regions around the world. Much of the pent up demand from three previous
years of terrorism, war and health concerns has been released in a record
level of Travel & Tourism demand. Consumers and business travelers
have voted their confidence in the economy by returning to holidays and
business trips in massive numbers. We�ve haven�t seen such a rebound
in Travel & Tourism growth for quite some time, it�s really quite exciting.
For 2005 we expect the rebound to continue at a sustainable pace.�
Speaking about the impact of the tsunami on the industry, Mr. Baumgarten
continued, �The tsunami was perhaps the most tragic humanitarian crisis
of our lifetime. Fortunately we have seen a massive response from
governments and industry to this tragedy. Although a number of Travel
& Tourism destinations and businesses suffered significant loss, steps
are well underway to restore these destinations and bring back the visitors.
The key is to inform and educate potential visitors about what is open
and available for business. The sooner visitors return to affected
areas, the sooner these economies will recover. Each and everyone
of us can do our part to rebuild and restore these economies by returning
to our regular Travel & Tourism routines.�
At the press event, the WTTC released its 2005 Top Ten List of Travel
& Tourism economies. For the second year in a row Montenegro
has placed first as the fastest growing Travel & Tourism economy in
the world. India and China placed second and third respectively illustrating
the impact of the emerging middle-classes has on Travel & Tourism growth.
Travel & Tourism Demand, 2006-2015
(% Annualized Real Growth)
1 |
Montenegro |
9.9 |
2 |
China |
9.2 |
3 |
India |
8.6 |
4 |
Reunion |
8.3 |
5 |
Croatia |
7.8 |
6 |
Sudan |
7.7 |
7 |
Vietnam |
7.7 |
8 |
Laos |
7.6 |
9 |
Czech Republic |
7.5 |
10 |
Guadeloupe |
7.2 |
WTTC also released its special assessment of the December 2004 Tsunami
on three Indian Ocean economies: Maldives, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
In each case, the analyses showed significant declines in visitor exports,
while increases were reported in government expenditures and capital investment
for marketing, promotion, recovery and rebuilding efforts to assist the
industry.
-
In The Maldives, Visitor Exports are expected to fall 29.9% from pre-Tsunami
growth forecasts for 2005, while Government Expenditures and Capital Investment
are expected to increase 6.6% and 14.6% respectively. The bottom-line
impact for The Maldives is a loss of 30.4% or US$55 million in industry
contribution to 2005 GDP and 10,440 jobs.
-
In Sri Lanka, Visitor Exports are expected to fall 21.4% from pre-Tsunami
growth forecasts for 2005, while Government Expenditures and Capital Investment
are expected to increase 13.1% and 12.8% respectively. The bottom-line
impact for Sri Lanka is a loss of 14.1% or US$201 million in industry contribution
to 2005 GDP and 66,840 jobs.
-
In Thailand, Visitor Exports are expected to fall 22.8% from pre-Tsunami
growth forecasts for 2005, while Government Expenditures and Capital Investment
are expected to increase 5.1% and 4.7% respectively. The bottom-line
impact for Thailand is a loss of 16.7% or US$1.2 billion in industry contribution
to 2005 GDP and 94,780 jobs.
Richard Miller, Executive Vice President of WTTC said, �The total impact
of the Dec tsunami on 2005 Travel & Tourism is expected to approach
US$ 3 billion and cost more than one quarter millions jobs. In most
cases the jobs will be recovered as soon as traffic begins to return to
the affected areas, but in the meantime the economies will continue to
suffer. Although the impact of the tsunami has been significant,
it is generally limited for Travel & Tourism to a short list of specific
destinations.�
The WTTC report shows that the impact of 9/11 in the United States was
37.5 times larger in monetary terms than the tsunami and 2.8 times larger
in terms of impact on employment. The impact of SARS in Hong Kong
equals 40% of the tsunami monetarily and 10% in terms of impact on employment.
The Bali bombing in 2002 equals 20% of the tsunami impact monetarily and
was 1.8 times larger in terms of impact on employment.
About The World Travel & Tourism Council
The WTTC is the forum for business leaders in the Travel & Tourism
industry. With Chief Executives of some one hundred of the world�s
leading Travel & Tourism companies as its members, WTTC has a unique
mandate and overview on all matters related to Travel & Tourism. WTTC
works to raise awareness of Travel & Tourism as one of the world�s
largest industries, employing c. 200 million people and generating over
10% of world GDP. |