Promotional rates this past summer at most selected Inter-Continental hotels (those which are the same hotel in main centres) are below those of 10 years earlier, see table.

The blame is not entirely the slowdown caused by the events of 911. Although promotional rates were down in 2000 as well (over 1992), they have fallen more since 2000.

However, the two US cities listed were ahead over the 10-year check, even if they also have fallen since 911.

The decline is greatest in Tokyo, although this is partly an exchange rate factor; in 1992, it cost under 100 yen to buy a US dollar. At this June�s exchange rate, the promotional hotel rate in Tokyo in 1992 would have been US$230, not US$285 as it was at that time.

Summer promotional rates at selected Inter-Continental hotels, US$*
 

Notes: *Quoted in US$ except Tokyo which is converted at exchange rate for June 1992. **Over 1992. Source: advertisements monitored by Travel Business Analyst.

Most reports on hotel results in Seoul and Tokyo during the soccer�s World Cup � held in Korea and Japan in June and July - were positive.

A report from Travel Business Analyst is more negative, and suggests some results may have been talked-up. It bases its findings on what it calls the Big Event Blues*.

Hotel figures show a decline in occupancy in Seoul over the two months, see table, but there was slight growth in Tokyo - but not greatly different from results in the three other regional cities, Bangkok, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

On a YTD basis, results improved in the two soccer cities - better than results in the other three.

For rate, Seoul did very well, growing over 30%, and Tokyo came close to 20%. But then, Bangkok did better than Tokyo and almost as well as Seoul - leading to the inevitable logical conclusion that it is better not to stage a big event...

When compared with YTD, all five cities except Singapore gained in June and July.

(*Big Event Blues began as a semi-serious theory from Travel Business Analyst suggesting that momentous international events (such as the Summer Olympic Games) actually depress visitor arrivals, and do not produce a travel boom. Although these events attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right - not only is movement curtailed, but many prices are higher.)
 

Aussie internet rules

A study of internet bookings by the Bureau of Tourism Research for domestic travel in Australia will have value in other markets because it is comprehensive.

Usage by those guest staying in hotels was over-represented on the internet - 47% booked on the internet, compared with a 32% share of all overnight visitors, see Table 1.

This was the same for those staying in cheaper paid accommodation, such as bed & breakfast. But the measures were the same for camping and caravanning, and (understandably) reversed for those staying with friends or relatives.

BTR has a possible explanation for the fact that spending is higher for internet users, see Table 2. This has been a puzzle - but has led many to assume yields from internet users are higher - partly because other surveys show that usage of lower-cost sites is higher than for others. For instance, more visitors to low-fare Southwest�s site in the USA, than to American�s, 10-times bigger.

BTR believes this may be because travellers knowing that their particular trip spend will be high, are more likely to use the internet to get their travel information.

Nevertheless, its survey showed spend by those using the internet was more than double that of all travellers. For spending on accommodation, the difference was even greater � US$143 against US$57 for all visitors � and also double for spending on meals. 
 
 

Murray Bailey is Editor/Research Director of Travel Business Analyst. He has also been editor of various periodicals and publications, including the Sourcebook on Travel and Tourism, Asia Pacific's only comprehensive annual compendium of regional and local-market travel industry statistics, and the International Hotel Industry, a 600-page report of which Bailey was the author. From his current position, Bailey has conducted research and analysis  for a number of major organisations in the travel industry, including American Express, Cathay Pacific Airways, the Economist Intelligence Unit, the European Travel Commission, the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the Inter-Continental hotel group, and the World Travel & Tourism Council. Bailey divides his time between France and Hong Kong.