11 December 2002 - In early November, hosts Deloitte & Touche and Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, invited almost 300 senior executives to a one day conference in London addressing the issues of the European hotel investment industry. Taylor Nelson Sofres supported the hosts and invitees by conducting a opinion survey amongst the attendees. About 35 percent of the interviewees were hotel operators, some 18 percent were investors, a further 17 percent were lawyers, accountants and other financial advisors, whilst 16 percent were from the real estate and surveying industries. About 10 percent of the interviewees were bankers and other lenders.

Testing the mood of the audience before the conference, the survey showed that the invitees were evenly divided as to whether Eurozone growth in 2003 would be faster than that achieved in 2002. After listening to the presentations and discussions, including a powerful contribution from Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, the audience were a good deal more pessimistic. 45 percent of delegates left believing that Eurozone growth would not be faster than 2002, whilst the number either strongly agreeing or agreeing before the conference fell considerably as a result of the conference elements. 

Asked prior to the conference whether occupancy levels in German hotels will fall below 60 percent in 2003, more than 52 percent of invitees either agreed with this statement or strongly agreed with this statement. After hearing Roger Bootle's assessment of general economic trends, and Nick van Marken's views as partner in charge of hospitality consulting at Deloitte & Touche, the audience became yet more convinced that German occupancies will continue their downward trend for some time to come. Only 27 percent of the audience left the conference confident that German occupancies will not crash below 60 percent in 2003.

Turning their attention to the UK, the audience was asked to comment on UK revPAR trends for 2003 - would UK hotel performance decline bringing UK revPARs nearer to German revPARs. Prior to the conference, the largest segment (41 percent) agreed with this prediction, although there was a significant minority (17 percent) who strongly disagreed with the assessment. The conference presentations, and perhaps the networking with colleagues at breaks, moved the invitees to a more optimistic view on UK outcomes for 2003 by the end of the conference. Almost 70 percent left the conference believing that in 2003 UK revPARs will not decline.

Arriving at the conference, invitees were evenly divided as to whether London occupancies are set to fall below 70 percent in 2003 whilst UK Regional occupancies are set to trade above 70 percent. Was it the sight of guests in the lobby, restaurants and bars of the sponsoring hotels (Royal Lancaster, Dorchester, Four Seasons Canary Wharf and Hilton Paddington), or was it Nick van Marken's analysis, that caused 63 percent invitees to leave the conference believing that London occupancies will not fall below 70 percent in 2003?

An innovation at this year�s conference - the 14th time this annual event has been hosted - was a panel session linking the issues facing the European airline industry with the European hotel industry. Arriving at the conference, almost 60 percent of delegates either agreed or strongly agreed that when airlines suffer a decline in revenue, the hotel industry is hit with a similar decline. After listening to contributions from Chris Tarry of Commerzbank and Sinead Finn from Ryanair, the invitees had significantly hardened their views; no less than 66 percent believed that the hotel industry is inextricably linked to the airline industry for its fortunes.

Nick Marsh led the invitees into an exploration of the mood of investors. Arriving at the conference, more than 75 percent of delegates either agreed or strongly agreed, that although in 2003 hotel businesses are more likely to use private equity houses for funding, there will be few transactions until banks and bond investors become less cautious. Having listened to Nick, the delegates left less sure that it will be the caution of the banks that prevents transactions in 2003. 32 percent of the delegates strongly disagreed with the hypothesis.

Commenting on the survey results, Managing Director of Taylor Nelson Sofres and Leisure Division Clive Nicolaou commented, "Using our technology, and responding to our on-site researchers, delegates clearly showed that they had taken on board the content of the presentations at this year's conference. In our position as leading researchers for the industry, we see how both guests and hotel industry executives change their opinions as new and changing information comes to hand. It is reassuring to witness that hotel investment executives are flexible in their thinking, as this is likely to mean that the industry responds better and quicker to changing customer and investor demands" 

Marvin Rust, Hotel Industry leader in the Travel, Tourism and Leisure Practice at Deloitte & Touche added that, "The survey was an innovation at this year's conference which is open only to invitees. The fact that the invitees clearly were motivated by the elements of the conference demonstrates the quality of our panel of presenters. The expertise available to invitees, whether from Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, Deloitte & Touche or other sources, is a fundamental reason why this has been the premier hotel investment conference in London year after year for the last 14 years.�

Deloitte & Touche a UK professional services firm in 23 locations, with over 10,000 staff nationwide..  It is the UK practice of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, a global leader in professional services with over 100,000 people in 140 countries
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Authorised by the Financial Services Authority in respect of regulated activities.  The information contained in this article is correct at the time of going to press.