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CANADIAN LODGING OUTLOOK
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By: Elizabeth D. MacDonald, MAI, AACI - HVS International - Canada
Well, here we are June 2002, where does the time go? For the first six months of 2002, Canadian hotel occupancy is down by two occupancy points, from 58.6% to 56.6%. The average room rate is up slightly, from $100.94 for the first six months of 2001, to $101.82 for the first six months of 2002. Overall, RevPAR is down by 2.5%, $57.63 in the first half of 2002. For the first six months of 2002 in the United States, occupancy was 59.5%, down 3.6%. The average room rate was $84.28, down by 4.0%. RevPAR was $50.15, down by 7.4%. So how are we going to end the year? If we assume that occupancy continues to be two points off each month, with the exception of September and October, where we assume two points off from the 2000 monthly numbers; and we assume we can maintain 2000 monthly occupancy numbers for November and December, then year-end occupancy should be just about even with year-end 2001. Alternately, if we assume that the second half of 2002 will be better, than occupancy will be up. The following table presents both scenarios. It is our opinion, year-end 2002 market occupancy should be at least equal to 2001. |
June 2002
Year to Date |
Number of Rooms | Occupancy Rate %
2002 |
Occupancy Rate %
2001 |
Average Room Rate $ 2002 | Average Room Rate $ 2001 | RevPAR $ 2002 | RevPAR $ 2001 | Room Supply % Change
|
Room Demand % Change |
Nova Scotia Area | 1,343 | 54.6% | 56.1% | $74.89 | $75.42 | $40.89 | $42.31 | 0.3% | -2.3% |
Halifax, NS | 2,214 | 66.0% | 69.3% | $110.20 | $112.92 | $72.73 | $78.25 | 5.7% | 0.7% |
Montreal, QC | 15,447 | 63.0% | 64.5% | $138.36 | $132.53 | $87.17 | $85.48 | 2.2% | -0.1% |
QuebecCity, QC | 3,805 | 61.2% | 63.2% | $121.49 | $119.03 | $74.35 | $75.23 | 2.6% | -0.5% |
Quebec Area | 3,440 | 52.5% | 52.1% | $84.92 | $81.01 | $44.58 | $42.21 | 0.7% | 1.4% |
Toronto Downtown | 12,001 | 63.9% | 68.3% | $159.45 | $163.59 | $101.89 | $111.73 | 0.1% | -6.5% |
Toronto North/East | 5,856 | 58.7% | 62.9% | $106.21 | $108.61 | $62.35 | $68.32 | -0.8% | -7.3% |
Toronto Airport/West | 9,545 | 64.2% | 71.1% | $116.06 | $116.99 | $74.51 | $83.18 | 3.6% | -6.4% |
Ottawa, ON | 7,902 | 63.0% | 68.4% | $126.32 | $128.12 | $79.58 | $87.63 | 2.3% | -5.8% |
Ontario East | 5,528 | 53.3% | 55.6% | $93.57 | $92.01 | $49.87 | $51.16 | 0.3% | -3.8% |
Niagara Falls, ON | 6,247 | 50.2% | 49.4% | $106.08 | $104.70 | $53.25 | $51.72 | 1.0% | 2.6% |
Ontario Southwest | 6,780 | 58.2% | 58.9% | $97.38 | $97.02 | $56.68 | $57.14 | 0.5% | -0.8% |
Ontario North | 4,482 | 54.3% | 56.0% | $87.10 | $86.14 | $47.30 | $48.24 | 0.1% | -2.8% |
Ontario Central | 6,093 | 55.4% | 57.4% | $93.45 | $90.60 | $51.77 | $52.00 | 1.6% | -2.0% |
Winnipeg, MB | 3,718 | 61.3% | 61.9% | $91.11 | $91.67 | $55.85 | $56.74 | 3.6% | 2.7% |
Regina / Saskatoon, SK | 3,780 | 59.7% | 63.6% | $84.06 | $81.22 | $50.18 | $51.66 | 1.6% | -4.6% |
Calgary, AB | 7,218 | 64.0% | 63.8% | $113.76 | $111.53 | $72.81 | $71.16 | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Edmonton, AB | 5,263 | 75.7% | 65.0% | $89.09 | $90.75 | $67.44 | $58.99 | 0.0% | 16.5% |
Alberta Area | 6,723 | 56.5% | 62.0% | $86.94 | $81.13 | $49.12 | $50.30 | 0.3% | -8.6% |
Mountain Regions, AB | 2,371 | 63.2% | 64.8% | $187.13 | $178.71 | $118.27 | $115.80 | -5.9% | -8.2% |
Vancouver, BC | 12,314 | 60.3% | 63.5% | $127.82 | $127.83 | $77.08 | $81.17 | 2.5% | -2.7% |
British Columbia Area | 5,481 | 48.8% | 48.8% | $76.53 | $76.42 | $37.35 | $37.29 | 0.7% | 0.9% |
Victoria, BC | 3,023 | 58.7% | 58.4% | $109.78 | $103.62 | $64.44 | $60.51 | 1.0% | 1.6% |
Provinces
|
. | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Alberta | 21,544 | 64.7% | 63.8% | $106.87 | $106.60 | $69.14 | $68.01 | -0.6% | 0.8% |
British Columbia | 23,863 | 57.7% | 59.5% | $129.02 | $128.05 | $74.44 | $76.19 | 1.3% | -1.8% |
Manitoba | 4,043 | 61.0% | 61.5% | $90.19 | $90.51 | $55.02 | $55.66 | 2.8% | 1.9% |
New Brunswick | 3,091 | 57.4% | 58.7% | $89.25 | $86.35 | $51.23 | $50.69 | 0.1% | -2.2% |
Newfoundland | 1,526 | 62.0% | 64.9% | $103.95 | $98.29 | $64.45 | $63.79 | 0.0% | -4.4% |
Nova Scotia | 3,557 | 61.9% | 64.6% | $98.96 | $101.48 | $61.26 | $65.56 | 1.9% | -2.5% |
Northwest Territories | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS |
Ontario | 63,995 | 59.2% | 62.6% | $117.11 | $118.61 | $69.33 | $74.25 | 1.0% | -4.5% |
Prince Edward Island | 834 | 42.3% | 44.2% | $80.58 | $77.52 | $34.09 | $34.26 | 0.0% | -4.4% |
Quebec | 23,162 | 60.9% | 62.1% | $128.05 | $123.09 | $77.98 | $76.44 | 1.6% | -0.4% |
Saskatchewan | 5,274 | 55.0% | 58.1% | $78.94 | $76.55 | $43.42 | $44.48 | 1.0% | -4.4% |
Yukon Territory | 638 | 39.7% | 46.7% | $77.52 | $82.36 | $30.78 | $38.46 | 0.0% | -15.1% |
Canada
|
151,527 | 56.6% | 58.6% | $101.82 | $100.94 | $57.63 | $59.15 | 1.0% | -2.4% |
###
Kimberley Tyls HVS International 4235 Prospect Road North Vancouver, BC V7N 3L6 (604) 988-9743, ext. 21 [email protected] www.hvsinternational.com |