Hotel Online  Special Report

Reporting In at Six Months....

CANADIAN LODGING OUTLOOK
June 2002 Year to date


The Canadian Lodging Outlook is a joint monthly publication 
of Smith Travel Research and HVS International, 
Vancouver and Toronto, Canada

 
By: Elizabeth D. MacDonald, MAI, AACI - HVS International - Canada

Well, here we are June 2002, where does the time go? For the first six months of 2002, Canadian hotel occupancy is down by two occupancy points, from 58.6% to 56.6%. The average room rate is up slightly, from $100.94 for the first six months of 2001, to $101.82 for the first six months of 2002. Overall, RevPAR is down by 2.5%, $57.63 in the first half of 2002.

For the first six months of 2002 in the United States, occupancy was 59.5%, down 3.6%. The average room rate was $84.28, down by 4.0%. RevPAR was $50.15, down by 7.4%.

So how are we going to end the year? If we assume that occupancy continues to be two points off each month, with the exception of September and October, where we assume two points off from the 2000 monthly numbers; and we assume we can maintain 2000 monthly occupancy numbers for November and December, then year-end occupancy should be just about even with year-end 2001.

Alternately, if we assume that the second half of 2002 will be better, than occupancy will be up. The following table presents both scenarios.

It is our opinion, year-end 2002 market occupancy should be at least equal to 2001.



Canadian Lodging Outlook
HVS International - Canada
June 2002 Year-to-Date
June 2002 
Year to Date
Number of Rooms Occupancy Rate %
2002
Occupancy Rate % 
2001
Average Room Rate $ 2002 Average Room Rate $ 2001 RevPAR $ 2002 RevPAR $ 2001 Room Supply % Change
 
Room Demand % Change
Nova Scotia Area 1,343 54.6% 56.1% $74.89 $75.42 $40.89 $42.31 0.3% -2.3%
Halifax, NS 2,214 66.0% 69.3% $110.20 $112.92 $72.73 $78.25 5.7% 0.7%
Montreal, QC 15,447 63.0% 64.5% $138.36 $132.53 $87.17 $85.48 2.2% -0.1%
QuebecCity, QC 3,805 61.2% 63.2% $121.49 $119.03 $74.35 $75.23 2.6% -0.5%
Quebec Area 3,440 52.5% 52.1% $84.92 $81.01 $44.58 $42.21 0.7% 1.4%
Toronto Downtown 12,001 63.9% 68.3% $159.45 $163.59 $101.89 $111.73 0.1% -6.5%
Toronto North/East 5,856 58.7% 62.9% $106.21 $108.61 $62.35 $68.32 -0.8% -7.3%
Toronto Airport/West 9,545 64.2% 71.1% $116.06 $116.99 $74.51 $83.18 3.6% -6.4%
Ottawa, ON 7,902 63.0% 68.4% $126.32 $128.12 $79.58 $87.63 2.3% -5.8%
Ontario East 5,528 53.3% 55.6% $93.57 $92.01 $49.87 $51.16 0.3% -3.8%
Niagara Falls, ON 6,247 50.2% 49.4% $106.08 $104.70 $53.25 $51.72 1.0% 2.6%
Ontario Southwest 6,780 58.2% 58.9% $97.38 $97.02 $56.68 $57.14 0.5% -0.8%
Ontario North 4,482 54.3% 56.0% $87.10 $86.14 $47.30 $48.24 0.1% -2.8%
Ontario Central 6,093 55.4% 57.4% $93.45 $90.60 $51.77 $52.00 1.6% -2.0%
Winnipeg, MB 3,718 61.3% 61.9% $91.11 $91.67 $55.85 $56.74 3.6% 2.7%
Regina / Saskatoon, SK 3,780 59.7% 63.6% $84.06 $81.22 $50.18 $51.66 1.6% -4.6%
Calgary, AB 7,218 64.0% 63.8% $113.76 $111.53 $72.81 $71.16 0.9% 1.1%
Edmonton, AB 5,263 75.7% 65.0% $89.09 $90.75 $67.44 $58.99 0.0% 16.5%
Alberta Area 6,723 56.5% 62.0% $86.94 $81.13 $49.12 $50.30 0.3% -8.6%
Mountain Regions, AB 2,371 63.2% 64.8% $187.13 $178.71 $118.27 $115.80 -5.9% -8.2%
Vancouver, BC 12,314 60.3% 63.5% $127.82 $127.83 $77.08 $81.17 2.5% -2.7%
British Columbia Area 5,481 48.8% 48.8% $76.53 $76.42 $37.35 $37.29 0.7% 0.9%
Victoria, BC 3,023 58.7% 58.4% $109.78 $103.62 $64.44 $60.51 1.0% 1.6%
Provinces
. . . . . . . . .
Alberta 21,544 64.7% 63.8% $106.87 $106.60 $69.14 $68.01 -0.6% 0.8%
British Columbia 23,863 57.7% 59.5% $129.02 $128.05 $74.44 $76.19 1.3% -1.8%
Manitoba 4,043 61.0% 61.5% $90.19 $90.51 $55.02 $55.66 2.8% 1.9%
New Brunswick 3,091 57.4% 58.7% $89.25 $86.35 $51.23 $50.69 0.1% -2.2%
Newfoundland 1,526 62.0% 64.9% $103.95 $98.29 $64.45 $63.79 0.0% -4.4%
Nova Scotia 3,557 61.9% 64.6% $98.96 $101.48 $61.26 $65.56 1.9% -2.5%
Northwest Territories INS INS INS INS INS INS INS INS INS
Ontario 63,995 59.2% 62.6% $117.11 $118.61 $69.33 $74.25 1.0% -4.5%
Prince Edward Island 834 42.3% 44.2% $80.58 $77.52 $34.09 $34.26 0.0% -4.4%
Quebec 23,162 60.9% 62.1% $128.05 $123.09 $77.98 $76.44 1.6% -0.4%
Saskatchewan 5,274 55.0% 58.1% $78.94 $76.55 $43.42 $44.48 1.0% -4.4%
Yukon Territory 638 39.7% 46.7% $77.52 $82.36 $30.78 $38.46 0.0% -15.1%
Canada
151,527 56.6% 58.6% $101.82 $100.94 $57.63 $59.15 1.0% -2.4%
© Smith Travel Research, 2002. Reproduction or quotation in whole or in part without permission is forbidden. *INS - Insufficient Data


###

Contact:
Kimberley Tyls
HVS International 
4235 Prospect Road
North Vancouver, BC V7N 3L6
(604) 988-9743, ext. 21
[email protected]
www.hvsinternational.com

Also See The Global Approach To Hotel Valuations / Canadian Lodging Outlook / June 2002
Hotel Insurance Premiums on the Rise? / Canadian Lodging Outlook / May 2002 
Hotel Development Cost Can Determine Feasibility / Canadian Lodging Outlook / May 2002 
Hotel Internet Distribution Channels / January 2002 Month-to-Date Results / Canadian Lodging Outlook / April 2002 
2001 Was a Great Year If You Were in Edmonton! / December 2001 Year-to-Date Results / Canadian Lodging Outlook / Feb 2002 
2001 Canadian Hotel Sales / Canadian Lodging Outlook / Jan 2002 
The Effect on Capitalization Rates and Discount Factors After September 11 / Canadian Lodging Outlook / Dec 2001 
So How Bad Was September for Canadian Hotels.. Pretty Bad! / Nov 2001
So How Bad Was September for Canadian Hotels.. Pretty Bad! / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / September 2001 
Have Hotel Values in Canada Declined Since September 11th? You Bet They Have / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / August 2001 
The Popularity of Boutique Hotels / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / July 2001 
Rising Energy Costs Cause Concern in the Lodging Industry / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / June 2001 
Niagara Falls: With Supply Comes Demand / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / May 2001 
Does Supply Generate Demand? / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / May 2001 
Optimism With a Hint of Caution, As Analysts Predict a Softer Year for the Canadian Hotel Industry / Mar 2001 
Limited-Service Growth in Canada - Where�s it Going? / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / January 2001 
HVS Canada in Review - Year End 2000 / The Canadian Lodging Outlook / March 2001 
Canadian Lodging Outlook / May 2000 Year to Date Statistics / HVS International - Canada / July 2000 
The Rule of Thumb Method...Does It Still Hold Weight? / Elaine Sahlins - HVS / Oct 2000
What�s Hot and What�s Not in Western Canadian Hotel Markets / Mar 2000


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