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You Were in Edmonton! CANADIAN LODGING OUTLOOK
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| By: Elizabeth D. MacDonald, MAI, AACI - HVS International - Canada
Canada�s year end occupancy was 60.3%, down from 62.3% in 2000. Hotel room night demand was down 3.2%; however, the average room rate was up by exactly 3.2%, from $99.67 in 2000 to $102.84 in 2001. Prior to September 11th, the Canadian hotel market was already experiencing a slow down in occupancy, average room rate, and RevPAR. With the continued slowing of the economy during 2001, and the September 11th terrorist attacks, the hospitality industry was faced with a high number of cancellations and consumers unwilling to travel. With that being said, RevPAR for 2001 is sitting at $62.01 just about equal to $62.09 in 2000. Although occupancy declined, the average room rate has continued to climb. Occupancy in the United States was 60.2% in 2001, down from 63.7% in 2000. RevPAR was down 7.0%. The largest RevPAR declines were reported by luxury/upscale hotels at 20.0% to 22.0%. The smallest declines were by midscale hotels with out food and beverage, which reported RevPAR drops in the 3.0% to 5.0% range. All provinces except Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, reported declines in occupancy ranging from 1.2% to 6.1%. All provinces except Prince Edward Island and Alberta, reported an increase in average room rate of 1.2% to 4.3%. Of our major cities, Toronto led the market in terms of RevPAR decline, down 3.4% from $116.02 in 2000 to $110.86. Montreal followed with a 1.0% RevPAR decline from $87.63 in 2001 to $88.71. Vancouver reported $85.48 RevPAR in 2001, down 1.0% from $88.02 in 2000. Ottawa stayed even in 2001 with a RevPAR of $85.76 compared to $85.77 in 2000. Calgary�s 2001 RevPAR was $71.66, down 0.9% from $75.57 in 2000. With the boom in the oil and gas industry, Edmonton reported a significant increase in RevPAR at $59.06 in 2001 compared to $52.78 in 2000, a 12.8% increase. For 2002, some experts are predicting a further decline in occupancy to below 60.0%, while others are projecting that occupancy will stabilize and supply will increase very slowly. HVS International-Canada is projecting no growth in demand the first and second quarters of 2002, and limited growth in demand the third and fourth quarters in the major urban areas, with the exception of Edmonton. Edmonton is projected to be one of the fastest growing cities in the country next year. Also, some small rural areas are experiencing growth, especially in the Alberta. Overall, it is a market by market judgement call. A five-year analysis of major Canadian cities RevPAR growth reflects
higher than inflationary increases for Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, and Edmonton.
Calgary hotels reported slight growth, and RevPAR for Vancouver hotels
declined.
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of Rooms |
2001 |
2000 |
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Change |
| Nova Scotia Area | 1,231 | 61.9% | 64.3% | $79.74 | $79.74 | $49.36 | $50.89 | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| Halifax, NS | 2,599 | 71.8% | 72.1% | $117.47 | $116.18 | $84.34 | $83.77 | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Montreal, QC | 14,995 | 65.8% | 69.2% | $133.18 | $128.19 | $87.63 | $88.71 | 1.1% | -3.8% |
| Quebec City, QC | 3,623 | 66.3% | 69.0% | $130.97 | $122.99 | $86.83 | $84.86 | 1.4% | -2.7% |
| Quebec Area | 3,568 | 57.1% | 55.5% | $85.41 | $81.30 | $48.77 | $45.12 | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| Toronto Downtown | 12,271 | 68.1% | 71.3% | $162.79 | $162.72 | $110.86 | $116.02 | 1.1% | -3.5% |
| Toronto North/East | 6,079 | 63.6% | 68.3% | $108.76 | $108.17 | $69.17 | $73.88 | 0.0% | -6.9% |
| Toronto Airport/West | 9,589 | 68.2% | 74.5% | $116.06 | $113.55 | $79.15 | $84.59 | 4.0% | -4.8% |
| Ottawa, ON | 7,346 | 67.6% | 72.0% | $126.87 | $119.12 | $85.76 | $85.77 | -0.6% | -6.7% |
| Ontario East | 4,891 | 58.7% | 61.8% | $95.83 | $90.06 | $56.25 | $55.66 | 0.7% | -4.4% |
| Niagara Falls, ON | 5,275 | 56.3% | 59.4% | $125.61 | $118.02 | $70.72 | $70.10 | 4.4% | -0.9% |
| Ontario Southwest | 5,594 | 57.3% | 60.2% | $97.15 | $93.54 | $55.67 | $56.31 | 0.6% | -4.2% |
| Ontario North | 4,262 | 59.7% | 61.0% | $91.06 | $88.65 | $54.36 | $54.08 | 0.3% | -1.8% |
| Ontario Central | 6,635 | 61.3% | 61.5% | $92.67 | $88.17 | $56.81 | $54.22 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Winnipeg, MB | 3,289 | 62.4% | 66.1% | $91.62 | $88.88 | $57.17 | $58.75 | 2.2% | -3.6% |
| Regina / Saskatoon, SK | 3,686 | 62.0% | 65.9% | $81.32 | $78.73 | $50.42 | $51.88 | 3.0% | -3.1% |
| Calgary, AB | 7,387 | 64.7% | 65.7% | $110.76 | $115.02 | $71.66 | $75.57 | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Edmonton, AB | 4,556 | 64.6% | 62.2% | $91.42 | $84.85 | $59.06 | $52.78 | 0.8% | 4.6% |
| Alberta Area | 5,698 | 62.0% | 62.5% | $85.00 | $82.03 | $52.70 | $51.27 | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Mountain Regions, AB | 2,016 | 66.0% | 72.7% | $211.06 | $196.81 | $139.30 | $143.08 | -3.9% | -12.7% |
| Vancouver, BC | 11,571 | 63.4% | 64.1% | $134.82 | $137.32 | $85.48 | $88.02 | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| British Columbia Area | 4,927 | 52.2% | 52.7% | $81.75 | $78.89 | $42.67 | $41.58 | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Victoria, BC | 3,326 | 59.0% | 61.2% | $117.79 | $116.45 | $69.50 | $71.27 | 1.1% | -2.5% |
| Provinces | |||||||||
| Alberta | 19,657 | 64.1% | 65.1% | $112.71 | $113.31 | $72.25 | $73.76 | 0.8% | -0.6% |
| British Columbia | 23,113 | 59.6% | 60.8% | $129.88 | $128.28 | $77.41 | $77.99 | 1.5% | -0.5% |
| Manitoba | 3,611 | 62.0% | 65.9% | $90.35 | $87.95 | $56.02 | $57.96 | 2.0% | -4.0% |
| New Brunswick | 2,926 | 62.8% | 66.9% | $89.86 | $86.60 | $56.43 | $57.94 | 0.8% | -5.4% |
| Newfoundland | 1,521 | 67.0% | 66.5% | $98.12 | $95.00 | $65.74 | $63.18 | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| NovaScotia | 3,830 | 68.4% | 69.2% | $105.61 | $103.35 | $72.24 | $71.52 | 0.5% | -0.7% |
| Northwest Territories | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS | INS |
| Ontario | 61,503 | 63.6% | 67.1% | $120.37 | $117.44 | $76.56 | $78.80 | 1.2% | -4.1% |
| Prince Edward Island | 784 | 52.2% | 52.0% | $92.53 | $93.84 | $48.30 | $48.80 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Quebec | 22,625 | 64.3% | 66.8% | $125.53 | $120.33 | $80.72 | $80.38 | 0.7% | -3.1% |
| Saskatchewan | 5,180 | 58.2% | 61.6% | $76.26 | $74.19 | $44.38 | $45.70 | 1.9% | -3.8% |
| Yukon Territory | 274 | 48.6% | 49.2% | $84.32 | $82.81 | $40.98 | $40.74 | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| Canada | 145,024 | 60.3% | 62.3% | $102.84 | $99.67 | $62.01 | $62.09 | 1.1% | -2.2% |
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Kimberley Tyls HVS International 4235 Prospect Road North Vancouver, BC V7N 3L6 (604) 988-9743, ext. 21 [email protected] www.hvsinternational.com |