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..�Pretty Bad! CANADIAN LODGING OUTLOOK
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By: Salim Gulamani - HVS International - Vancouver
The Alberta Mountain Region market suffered the largest decline in occupancy during the month of September from 92.0% in 2000 to 65.8% in 2001, or by 26 points. The Toronto markets all suffered occupancy declines greater than 20%. Other eastern cities that reported major declines in occupancy were Niagara Falls at 19.4%, Montreal at 17.1%, Ottawa at 16.8%, and Quebec City at 15.0%. In Western Canada, Vancouver and Victoria reported occupancy declines at 15.9% each. Edmonton, Regina/Saskatoon, and Winnipeg had declines between 12.3% and 13.2%, while Calgary declined by 7.2%. Downtown Toronto as well as Vancouver�s average room rates declined by over $14, the highest in the country. Montreal�s average rate remained stable. Edmonton�s average rate increased $5, Regina/Saskatoon�s increased $2, and Ottawa�s went up $3. The Alberta Mountain Region area increased their average rates by over $42 while Quebec City increased their average rate by almost $13. As a result, RevPAR (revenue per available room) in Canada declined by $10, from $81.23 in 2000 to $71.55 in 2001. The downtown Toronto market experienced the greatest decline in RevPAR in the country, by $45. The Alberta Mountain Region had a RevPAR drop of over $38 in September. Vancouver�s RevPAR declined by almost $30. Several other Canadian cities reported RevPAR declines of more than $20 including Victoria, Montreal, and Niagara Falls. The substantial impact on Canadian hotels during the month of September is evident. But how much of this was directly effected by the attacks of September 11th? If we review year-to-date statistics we find that the hotel industry was already going through a downturn before the recent tragic events. This unfortunate incident only accelerated this process. Year-to-date numbers for the end of August showed that occupancy was already down 1.1%. At the end of September, overall occupancy was down by 2.5%. According to general managers across the country, occupancy levels for
the remainder of 2001 will be 3 to 6 points below original projections.
Looking forward, Canadian hoteliers are more optimistic than most of their
U.S. counterparts due to the country�s close proximity to major U.S. feeder
markets, the favorable exchange rate and Canada�s image as a safe destination.
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Kimberley Tyls HVS International 4235 Prospect Road North Vancouver, BC V7N 3L6 (604) 988-9743, ext. 21 [email protected] www.hvsinternational.com |