Nov. 5--Hoteliers in Bangkok are being very cautious in projecting room rates for next year, saying volatile global conditions prevent them from making accurate demand and occupancy predictions. 

Industry executives say that rate increases for the first half of next year would be slim, if any, but most are reluctant to give exact figures. 

"I could tell you percentages, but the whole thing may fall in the water," said Frank Clovyn, general manager of the Landmark Bangkok, "Predictions are useless." 

Mr Clovyn is not alone in his prudence. The sentiment among most of Bangkok's luxury hotel operators is wary as they gauge coming business against skittish markets and troubling world events. 

Rate increase figures that were provided fell between 7 percent and 12 percent for the corporate and leisure sectors, but most executives admitted they had to bear occupancy levels in mind when accounting for rates. 

"Like my colleagues in the industry, we are looking at a systematic approach to room rates," said The Regent Bangkok's general manager, Guy Rigby. 

The overall picture described by hotel executives for next year is bleak, the consensus being a lower-than-expected first half with the second half starting to show signs of normality. 

One hotel executive called the current busines climate "unchartered territory". 

Another said: "This is the most difficult year people have had to budget in a long time." 

Fewer corporate and leisure travellers is not the only thing bothering the industry -- the oversupply of rooms is creating growing frustration as well. 

Bangkok has an estimated 75,000 hotel rooms with even more to come online next year. This compares with 50,000 rooms in Hong Kong, where one might expect more. 

"I'd definitely say we're overdosing on rooms here,"Mr Rigby said. 

Richard Chapman, general manager of the Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit, said Bangkok was well known for the extent of overdevelopment, so much so that demand for rooms has yet to catch up with supply. 

"The only times that the supply and demand curve evens out in Bangkok is during November and February, which are traditionally high tourist seasons in Thailand," Mr Chapman said. "However, with the tragic events of Sept 11 these exceptions won't apply." 

The opening of more hotels, most notably the Conrad on Wireless Road at the end of 2002, could present yet another threat to beleaguered industry, Mr Rigby said. 

"Bangkok is saturated with an extraordinary amount of quality luxury hotels. I think anyone saying that the Conrad's opening is not a threat is kidding himself," Mr Rigby said. 

But hoteliers agree Thailand is well placed to gain by marketing itself as a safe destination given tensions in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. 

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(c) 2001, Bangkok Post, Thailand. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.