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By Dr. Ronald A. Nykiel, CHA, CHE
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, World Institute Associates
Conrad N. Hilton Distinguished Chair, University of Houston, Houston, TX
1997

The 21st century will welcome a world undergoing an extraordinary transformation. The trends leading us into the millennium have profound implications for all sectors of society.  The corporate, governmental and educational sectors must address and respond to these macro trends. For, no matter what our individual interests, these factors will influence human behavior with a broad brush.  Successful entities will examine each trend and develop plans of action to change their modus operandi to the new demands, thought processes and needs of a new global marketplace.

The pace of change itself will require an ongoing assessment to remain in tune with the ever changing marketplace. Our political, educational and business communities will be challenged to think differently and respond tactically or face a populace and/or market moving at a rate of change which will leave them behind. These challenges will be greatest in the service sector where "change" will be a constant.

We foresee ten macro trends having substantial impact on the consumer as we approach the millennium and perhaps beyond. Each trend requires careful assessment with respect to the impact and selection of related responses. These trends are:

Globalization
The world is meshing at an accelerating pace on all fronts. Multinational . positioning and adaptation to cultural diversity is now essential to achieve market share and meet customer needs. The implications extend to finding, attracting and retaining a diverse workforce.  It will be essential to implement motivational and reward systems including management development programs that bring a rapid inclusion of diversity into the thought/decision process. Service offerings must have universal appeal and product development must stress adaptability to succeed in a global marketplace.  From a consumer perspective, boundaries and territories are becoming obsolete, replaced by the universal appeal for the latest, newest and best value in both products and services. Winners will recognize globalization as the macro force for success. Losers will be those who do not understand it or do not change and adapt.

Technological Acceleration
-is driven by both technology itself and the markets insatiable desire for "new everything." Consumers will flock to those who deliver new conveniences, time savers and stress reducers. Businesses will divide into two categories over the next 48 months, "survivors" and "victims." Survivors will be those who adapt, move with, and invest in new technologies. Victims will suffer technological annihilation from more responsive and advanced competition, especially in the delivery of services. Likewise, individuals will need to invest in keeping themselves competitive and up-to-date or risk being re-engineered into obsolescence.

Peacetime War
Crime and terrorism are leading the list of that which ignores borders. The world and the communities in which we reside are undergoing an explosion of stress related to security. We are in a period where polarization of our society is rapidly taking place, with the law abiders and enforcers on one end of the spectrum and the law breakers and detractors of enforcement on the other. The implications include substantial investment being required to make the workplace, shopping place and home safe. Those in the service sector who understand the power of this macro trend and address it directly will win customer loyalty. Offering a safer service experience, be it travel related or in the work environment will help attract and retain customers.

Debt Wreck
Even without another round of higher interest rates, debt is spiraling out of control at both the governmental and individual level.  The reengineering of middle and upper management continues to shrink incomes while reducing tax revenues from this group. The lower and lower middle income or "flattened" work force whose emergent purchasing power slowly moved the economy, are just about out of "credit" and more importantly the ability to pay it all back. Those first few credit cards, car payments and adjustable rate mortgages (somewhat fueled by the easy consumer lender syndrome of financial institutions) are all adding up to trouble. Given a slight spark of inflation and/or higher interest rates, we are likely to see a no growth recessionary scenario. Simply stated, it is time to retain your best customers and take market share from your competitors. Protect your base at home and think globally to attract new markets.

Re-engineered Behavior
The early 1990's brought recession and a more cautious consumer. The insecurity caused by job eliminations remains ingrained and is being reinforced daily by media headlines. Everyone is more cautious in their spending, including corporations, individuals and even government.  Economic uncertainty and work environment insecurity are now part of the daily thought process preceding purchase decisions. To propel sales it will be necessary to overcome these stressful thoughts through creative marketing, promotions and financing techniques.  Make it possible for consumers to say "It's O.K." to themselves, and you may still achieve sales success.

Schizophrenic Growths
This past year witnessed a record number of major acquisitions and mergers, as well as "break-ups" of corporations. At the same time the entrepreneurial sprit was alive and well with new business starts outpacing previous years. The next few years to the millennium promise a brief period of digestion (likely this year and next) followed by an even bigger appetite. Look for more agreements, coalitions, networks, joint ventures, strategic market acquisitions and "contracting out" to fuel growth. Many such affiliations and activities will be driven by the desire to strengthen global reach, build brand(s)/company competitiveness, find new distribution channels and, frankly, to show growth. The winners will pursue these strategies not only for reasons related to economics of winners will pursue these strategies not only for reasons related to economics of size, but more importantly to provide consumer convenience and a value related marketing advantage.

Centurism and Expectation
The last few years of most centuries have been periods marked by the desire to hold on to the past followed by an insatiable desire to jump on board with the new. This latter behavioral pattern is usually fueled by a period or series of globally important events that cause a psychology of great expectation, such as discoveries, cures or innovations.  The pendulum swings rapidly-first to the tradition of the past and then to the "newness" of the future. Successful enterprises will not only ride the momentum both ways, but know when to time the directional change.

Near to Home Syndrome
Currently we are experiencing a strong desire and necessity to remain relatively close to home and work. Both job insecurity and two breadwinner households are supporting this trend and are likely to do so in the future. Near-to-home syndrome keeps many from long-distance (time) travel. The focus becomes extended weekends when both breadwinners can achieve a mutual day(s) off. The desire to escape remains, both for couples as well as single workers. Helping fulfill this desire with products or services convenient to purchase, consume or experience will result in market success.

Personal / Self Focus
Man typically is retrospective at the end ot each year, decade and especially century. This inwardfocus is now manifesting itself as a  response to stress. Some will seek to relieve their plight through relaxation, others through refreshing their psyche. Implications point to an increased desire for the "personal" which translates into taking care of oneself.   Likely behavioral manifestations include a renewed desire to purchase personal items such as clothes, meals out and other self-satisfiers. Also, expect a strong push on that which refreshes including travel, personal physical care (exercise) and other new interests. Much of this self focus will come from the under 50 year old segment, seeking more from life than the stress of work environs.

Exploration
For many over 50 years of age (now over 50% of the population) the approaching millennium brings a loud wake-up call that shouts:  "This is your last chance to see and do." Look for this large segment of the population to increase exploring the globe by seeking new destinations, to undertake new leisure pursuits and to want to experience "newness" in general.  The counterbalance to this overwhelming desire will be a real concern for long term health costs and taking care of remianing parental responsibilities (care of children and parents).

There are other trends which will likely influence our world in the months approaching the millennium and some are alarming, such as "institutional distrust" and "anything-goes cultism." More are truly exciting, such as "a renewal of man's desire to help others less fortunate" and an "acceleration of the scientific process" leading to cures for many of today's major diseases. The next few years to the millennium may turn out to be even more memorable than the event itself.