by Clive B. Jones, Senior Vice President
| Introduction
Think back to a world without automatic teller machines, laser printers,
or cellular phones. That was 1980. In 1980, the number of televisions with
remote control devices was statistically insignificant. There were no compact
discs, almost no videocassette recorders, and no video rental stores. Only
restaurants had microwave ovens and McDonalds was a domestic US Company.
No one had a facsimile machine or a personal computer. AIDS was unknown.
Communism was strong and capitalism was on the defensive. Information flow
could be more or less controlled at national boundaries. Like I said, that
was 1980. The question today, however, is what is going to happen next
and what am I going to do about it. |
|
In any presentation on technology, there are generally two camps in the
audience-the technophiles and the technophobes. The technophiles want to
believe that new technologies will solve all their problems. They are the
legitimate targets of the con men from cyberspace. In the software industry
it is common to speak of software, hardware, and “vaporware.” The latter
referring to the frequent delays and overpromissing of technology providers.
The technophobe on the other hand tries to pretend that because he doesn’t
understand technology
he does not need to cope with it or apply it to his business. He tries
to “hide in the shadows” between oncoming and receding technologies. The
balanced professional is somewhere in between. The technophobe must realize
that when new technologies are developed, they will be applied—and he must
deal with them. The technophile must realize that technology is no substitute
for good business and moral judgment.
Today we are passing through a technological, political, and social
discontinuity of epic proportions. The old paradigm of mass production
and mass marketing is being replaced by a totally new paradigm, a one-to-one
economic and marketing system ruled by individual choice and individual
priorities. This new system is made possible by the new technologies that
have been developed over the past decade.
The New Tourism
and Leisure Environment
The tourism and recreation industry is increasingly recognized as an
important economic, environmental and social force which can bring both
benefit and adversity. The business community and governments also know
that the industry has had spectacular successes and colossal failures.
A key element of a successful tourism industry is the ability to recognize
and deal with change across a wide range of behavioral and technological
factors and the way they interact. For the 21st Century, the tourism industry
will see major shifts in the leisure and tourism environment reflecting
changing consumer values, political forces, and the explosive growth of
information and other technologies. No aspect of the industry will remain
untouched.
These shifts will fall
in ten principal areas.
The New Tourism and Leisure
Environment:
| Means Turning Away From: |
=======> |
And Turning Towards: |
| Old Travel Patterns |
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|
New Travel Patterns |
| Established Destinations |
=======>
|
Emerging Destinations |
| Old Products |
=======>
|
New Products |
| Fragmented Tourism Industry |
=======>
|
Economic Development Tool |
| Developer Control |
=======>
|
Community Control |
| Financial Illusion |
=======>
|
Financial Reality |
| Passive Customers |
=======>
|
Involved Participants |
| Observing Technology |
=======>
|
Orchestrating Technology |
| Mass Markets |
=======>
|
Specialty markets |
| Mass Marketing |
=======>
|
Direct Customer Communication |
These changing realities make up the strategic context within which long
term tourism industry commitments and investments should be made. They
should guide the industry’s decision processes and resource allocation.
Only by understanding and acting upon reliable forecasts will the tourism
industry be able to avoid the most common cause of bad decisions: incorrect
assumptions about the external demographic, economic, political, and technology
environment.
Orchestrating Technology:
The New Tourism and Leisure
Environment Means...
| Turning Away From: |
|
And Turning Towards: |
| Observing Technologies |
=======> |
Orchestrating Technologies |
Print Media
|
=======>
|
Interactive Television & Videophone |
| Reality |
=======>
|
Virtual Reality & Simulation |
| Necessary Travel |
=======>
|
Discretionary Travel |
| Language Barriers |
=======>
|
Simultaneous Voice - Activated Transalation |
| Maps |
=======>
|
GIS & GPS |
New technology has driven many of the tourism and resort developments we
see today. It is appropriate to look at probable future technologies and
how they will affect tourism - and how they can be incorporated into the
planning for new tourism products and marketing.
Science and technology are often the wild cards in tourism and resort
planning—they seem to appear unexpectedly, creating entirely new markets
or products, or causing segmentation of existing ones. A typical example
could include:
| Bill Gates of Microsoft has formed a new company to digitize fine art
for computer reproductions and manipulation. This technology will have
applications at least for interior design, destination marketing via CD-ROM,
interactive television, and large scale simulated environments/attractions.
Other video/image technology applications will include image libraries,
simulators, recreation and sports training, and fantasy environments. Arthur
C. Clarke talks about hotel rooms that change according to customer moods.
To quote Clarke: “I’m not a predictor. I’m an extrapolater. Sometimes I
hear of a scientific discovery or invention and then I say, “What if? What
would it imply’”. Clark also said that within thirty years, “All travel
will be discretionary.” If this is only half true, it portends a fundamental
shift away from business travel and toward leisure travel. Underlying the
important relationship of technology to the leisure industry, Paul McCracken,
Chairman of Silicon Graphics states in Business Week that “The entertainment
industry is now the driving force for new technology, as defense used to
be.” |
This reminds me of a visit I had some time ago from representatives
of the Loral Company. I had never heard of them, but the turn out to be
a $5 billion US defense contractor that builds information, virtual reality,
and simulation systems for the US Defense Department. This is not small
stuff. Their Desert Storm simulation, for example, consists of a 100x150
mile realistic simulation of the desert terrain, an intelligent enemy,
and up to 10,000 battle stations interacting real time in a virtual reality
environment. They have done this type of simulation for seven potential
trouble spots around the world. The R&D costs were several billion
dollars, and they came to my company to discuss how to apply this awesome
technology to recreation and entertainment attractions.
This story is somewhat representative of the trickle down theory of
new technology:
-
First it goes to the military
-
Then to medicine
-
Then to business
-
Then to toys and, maybe to education
The status quo has been shattered by technological change. For the industry
to ignore this reality would be equivalent to having shrugged off the invention
of the jet engine.
Tourism leaders must be able to imagine, perceive, and gauge the effects
of oncoming Science and Technology upon demand, supply, and distribution.
The most pervasive technological changes that will be applied to the tourism
and recreation industry are both predictable and manageable. They will
include advances in: communication and information technology, transportation,
medicine, recreation equipment, the natural sciences, built environments
and automation. Following are just some of the changes that will affect
your business.
Communication
and Information Technology (IT)
Breakthroughs in IT and video technology will have countervailing effects
on tourism demand and the need to supply natural environments for tourism
activities. Advances that will allow individuals to enjoy simulated environments
in or near their own homes may also stimulate a stronger desire to visit
the actual environments. However, the direction of change is not
clear. Videophones, teleconferencing and virtual reality will reduce the
need for routine business travel. Interactive television/PC’s, Internet,
and a variety of on-line services will support a paradigm shift toward
direct consumer marketing. Voice activated language translators will enhance
communication and visitor experiences, particularly in Asia.
Image Libraries
That can call up travel information, scenes, and adventures from a
variety of electronic media. Advances in Flat Screen technology will allow
images to be portrayed on nearly any surface |
Realistic Simulation
of high risk recreational experiences such as sky diving, river rafting,
etc. |
Virtual Reality
for entertainment, virtual reality provides interactive fantasy trips,
experiences and competitive games in 3-D life size images and sensory response |
Simultaneous Voice-Activated Language Translation
for ease of visitor communication and employee training |
Unlimited Worldwide Database Access
for travel information, reservations and confirmed booking |
| Miniature, multipurpose communication devices accessible worldwide |
Smart Cards
to speed up the processing of travelers as well as monitor activity
and spending habits |
Interactive Learning Devices and Distance Learning
to expand education and training programs for employees and managers |
Fiber Optics/ISDN
to enable these advances to reach individual homes and businesses |
Individually programmed experiences/Virtual sex
a world in which your lawyers and lovers are both computer simulations
and morality systems are in turmoil |
Large-Scale Holography
to create realistic walk through images and environments |
Elimination of Long-Distance Phone Charges
to encourage relocation of business activities to resort environments
(The Internet already provides this for document and image transmission,
and low cost voice transmission programs are now being released) |
Practical Videophones
for individual use and high quality teleconferencing. Time, not money
will be the currency of the 21st Century. Businesses and individuals will
have to learn how to make time with technology. Desktop video communications
will be a key tool in this new environment—and it will have a major impact
on routine forms of business travel |
Virtual Communities
where relationships exist solely through electronic communication and
physical transportation is discretionary. The Internet chat rooms are but
the first stage in this evolution. |
Transportation
Future tourism transportation for the most part will be faster, easier,
and more comfortable. Video mapping and location sensors for automobiles
will become standard equipment in rental cars and an important distribution
channel for tourism industry marketing. However, local transportation infrastructure
will be under increasing strain. The rapid rise in the number of personal
automobiles in developing countries will have a major impact on society
and particularly the logistics of tourism. As airline and airspace capacity
become increasingly limited, high speed, high capacity passenger vessels
will play an increasingly important role in tourist travel.
Video Mapping and Location Sensors for Automobiles
no more getting lost. Geographic Positioning Systems (GPS) combined
with digital maps are already providing this service in Japan and a few
locations in the US. They will become standard equipment in rental cars
and an important point-of-sale distribution channel for tourism industry
marketing |
Advanced air traffic control (FANS)
to increase airspace capacity |
Rise in Number of Personal Automobiles in Developing Countries
a major impact on society, the environment, and the logistics of tourism |
Large-Capacity Air Transport
up to 1,000 passengers capacity. These limits to aircraft size are
caused partly by engineering issues but mainly by infrastructure limits
at existing airports (runway layout, taxiways, gate spacing, etc.) It reminds
me of the time when ships were built not to exceed the size of the Panama
Canal. These Panamax vessels were the effective limit to ship size for
over thirty years—until the quantum leap to the giant supertankers and
bulk vessels that we see today. We can expect a similar pattern for passenger
travel—but it will be a shift from air travel, and back to the sea. |
High-Speed/Large-Capacity water transport systems
VFB’s (Very Fast Boats) transport 5,000 people at a time on wave skimmers
capable of speeds of 200 mph. (Yokohama to Sydney in two days). Japan is
already building prototypes of these “bulletboats” to move cargo between
large coastal cities |
High speed trains
as an alternative for short haul air transport |
Supersonic air transport
faster and faster still |
Transportation transformers (land/air/sea)
for flexibility of access and routing/ decentralization of coastal
populations |
Hypersonic air travel/space plane
anywhere to anywhere in under two hours |
Medicine
Major medical advances will enable people to live longer, healthier
lives as science discovers new treatments and pushes back the frontier
of aging. The tourism industry will need to serve not only a more demanding
and knowledgeable consumer, but also one that is more able and adventurous.
Fantasy drugs
tourism has to compete with imagination and induced trips |
Memory and learning enhancers
create a more demanding and knowledgeable consumer |
The jet lag pill/sleep manipulation
eliminates traveler fatigue |
Greatly extended lifespan
probably the greatest demographic change in history, leads to more
mature, physically active, healthier individuals with more leisure time.
In the retirement community business, retirees are humorously categorized
as “go-go” if they are between 65 and 75, “slow-go” between 75 and 85,
and “no-go” after 85.
We will see these categories change dramatically and the “go-go” retirees
are the wave of the future |
Strength, reaction and performance enhancers
create a more able and adventurous consumer |
Regeneration of Nerve Tissue/hence limbs
creates new opportunities for the handicapped |
Cure for immune deficiency diseases
one of many visitor health issues to affect tourism |
Mainstream holistic health
creates an overwhelming demand for clean healthy environments and natural
food products. Successful resorts will have gardens where guests pick their
own fruits and vegetables |
Genetic Manipulation
creates new life forms and environments (Jurassic Park) |
Recreation
Equipment
As with information technology, advances in recreational equipment will
cause both increases and decreases in tourism demand and supply. However,
the net effect will be that more people spend more time, day and night,
in natural environments.
Geographic positioning systems (GPS)
so you know where you are (for navigation, wilderness adventures, travel
and photo diaries, and golf club selection) |
All-weather lightweight clothing
for travel flexibility |
Personal submarines
for unrestricted underwater observation |
Self-correcting sports equipment to guarantee success
the “non-slicing” golf ball allows tourism industry golf tournaments
to be completed in less than eight hours |
Night vision glasses and other electronic sense enhancers
for nocturnal eco-experiences and extended use of daytime facilities |
Simulation trainers
create a better prepared and more fit recreationist |
Ability to breathe underwater
man returns to the sea |
Natural Sciences
Discoveries in the natural sciences will have the effect of both increasing
the demand and supply for tourism. Emerging technology can help protect
the quality of natural environments and open new areas for development.
Self weeding, low maintenance grasses
keep golf course superintendents and landscape architects happy and
reduce resort operating costs |
Genetic manipulation
can enhance, create, and control natural environments |
Elimination of Water pollution
goes along with improved visitor sanitation |
Accurate long range weather forecasts
let tourists and operators anticipate weather effects |
Practical desalinization of water
opens new areas for tourism development |
Cold fusion/ unlimited clean energy
eliminates brownouts |
Interspecies communication
allows us to talk with the dolphins. It may not, however, bridge the
gap between the Kiwis and Aussies |
Built Environments
Science and technology improvements in Built Environments will increase
the demand for recreation and leisure, but not necessarily tourism. Artificial
environment resorts and theme parks will enable developers to bring resorts
to within two hours of the resident market rather than depend on uncertain
far distant markets. In-home leisure lifestyle centers will encourage electronic
tourism and recreation.
Artificial environment resorts and theme parks
create warm weather attractions in cold climates |
Simulated experiences
will provide realistic competition to natural attractions |
Telework Centers
new communications technologies will enable more and more people to
live and work anywhere they choose. This will be both a boon and a threat
to resorts and sensitive natural environments. |
Underwater habitats
create new tourism experiences |
Earth shelters and underground habitats
protect natural views in resort areas |
In home leisure lifestyle centers
will encourage electronic tourism and recreation |
Space tourism
is on the drawing boards with plans to have a space hotel by 2025 |
Automation
The revolution in robotics will be somewhat longer term in the field
of tourism than in other industries.
Free Ranging On Grid (FROG) driverless vehicles
automatically move goods, clean up, and maintain amusement parks and
golf courses |
| Routine hotel and attraction maintenance provided by robots |
Artificial intelligence systems
manage fragile environments |
Individual “personal assistants”
reside in your computer and know your special preferences. They make
routine travel arrangements (on voice command) and scan the Internet for
travel and recreation opportunities that meet your individual preferences.
This assistant is searching out products that tourism providers have on
offer. |
Audioanimatronic pets and “wild” animals
perhaps the greatest benefit to the travel industry. When you leave
the house to go on a trip, you don’t need a pet sitter, just turn off the
dog. |
| Universal Cashless Transactions |
Personal security and privacy protection devices
battle against the invasion of smart cards and databases |
These bullet points have only given a broad outline of some of the technologies
that will affect your business and personal lives. I would also like to
talk about a specific project that ERA is involved with—Leisureplan International.
This project is particularly interesting because of the partnerships that
have developed through.
The Leisureplan system was developed in South Africa by the Rembrandt
Group, which controls such brand names as Dunhill, Rothmans, Cartier, Piaget
and other high value brand names. They also sponsor Ernie Els on the PGA
Tour. The other partners include Thomas Cook, one of the world’s largest
travel and financial service agencies, and Philips Media, the inventor
of the CD ROM and a leader in all forms of electronic media. It is a partnership
with combined expertise in branding, distribution, and technology with
the aim of achieving market dominance in the electronic distribution of
travel and tourism information.
The Leisureplan product is a travel decision support system that was
designed around extensive research on how travelers make decisions. This
is in contrast to most electronic travel distribution systems whose main
focus is how can I sell my product better. This is not a subtle distinction,
but a basic shift from a product to customer orientation. Leisureplan uses
CD ROM and Internet technology to distribute visual travel information.
Products in the Leisureplan database are presented according to a travelers
individual preferences. Once a selection is made, the transaction can be
confirmed either by fax modem or seamlessly through a CRS. Hard copy of
the selected hotels, attractions, and tours can be printed, in color, to
give the customer an absolutely personalized brochure and itinerary.
ERA, along with the American Automobile Association (AAA) is developing
the North American database for the Leisureplan system. PATA assisted Leisureplan
in developing a database for “Gateway Cities in Asia”. This should be published
in CD ROM.
Summary
The tourism industry needs to use technology to improve productivity
in reaching a broad and diverse customer base. To do this, it must be flexible
and responsive to rapid change as well as be stable and responsible to
its existing customer base and suppliers. As John Young, CEO of Hewlett
Packard, says: “Doing it fast forces you to do it right the first time”.
The tourism industry needs to incorporate new technologies, decentralize
decision making, and incorporate new and more youthful ideas. In the future,
it will be imperative to have strong relationships with customers and to
use technology for frequent, interactive communication and targeted benefits.
Possible
Responses from the Tourism Industry
-
Identify changes in technology that will affect the growth, quality, and
marketing of tourism
-
Examine the extent to which new telework and video communication technologies
could affect routine forms of business and personal travel
-
Provide quality and timely information that encourages the successful deployment
and application of new technology throughout the industry. Work to increase
the productivity and competitive advantage that will accrue to those in
the industry that use new information technology to improve their plans,
decisions, and processes
-
Maintain a technology clearing house that keeps members posted on the latest
developments
-
Consider areas where the tourism industry can be proactive and orchestrate
technology to its benefit rather than adapt to technology that has been
placed upon it.
-
Cooperate in developing and managing a branded electronic information system
through established networks such as the Internet
-
Develop education programs, seminars, and conferences that address tourism
and technology issues
-
Develop a working relationship with key technology providers and developers
so they become knowledgeable about the needs and opportunities within the
tourism industry.
To sum up, in words attributed to former New York Yankees manager Casey
Stengel, “The future ain’t what it used to be”
© 1998 Economics Research Associates - All rights reserved |
