The growing presence of foreign operators on German soil arid the wave of takeovers and mergers internationally have caught the attention of German hoteliers. Germany's own hotel groups continue almost without exception to he national chains, privately held, with little or no presence abroad. A number of recent developments suggest they are beginning to sense danger in remaining strictly domestic. With the takeover game too costly for most strategic alliances are the preferred approach:
 

• The Munich-based Arable group surprised the industry late last year with the announcement of a joint venture with Sheraton. The dozen existing Arabella hotels -including properties in and near Munich, Frankfurt and at Dusseldorf airport - have been renamed "ArabellaSheraton." Of greater long-term interest will be the further development plans of the joint venture which combines the brand equity of Sheraton with the real estate expertise of Arabella's parent company, the Schorghuber group, a well -established German property developer.
• One of Germany's most expansive groups, Dorint Hotels, began the year with the launch of a new marketing alliance with Jolly Hotels of Italy. Several weeks later a joint venture was announced with Austria's Rogner Hotels. In addition to the Austrian base, the Rogner deal gives Dorint a foothold in Eastern Europe with hotels in Prague, Heviz (Hungary) and Tirana and, presumably, access 10 eastward-looking Austrian capital. Like the ArabellaSheraton joint venture, the Rogner alliance brings together a strong operator (Dorint) and an established property developer (Robert Rogner).
• Dorint also has announced a marketing joint venture in Germany with Inter-Continental Hotels and Resorts (now owned by Bass). The deal involves the five Inter-Continental hotels in Germany, eight of Dorint's four-and five-star properties and II additional Dorint properties that are currently in development. The hotels will be rebranded, "Inter-Continental," followed by the name of the city and the label, "Em Dorint Hotel." Under the terms of the agreement, Inter-Continental will provide reservations and sales and marketing services to the Dorint hotels, along with all the associated brand imagery.
• Uwe Klaus, COO of Maritim Hotels, in a rare newspaper interview has announced that the company is actively seeking an "international marketing partner with a similar structure, same quality level and matching synergies." I-low-ever, he ruled out an ArabellaSheraton-style melding of names. With 41 hotels, 39 of them in Germany, Maritim has a strong presence in the domestic market, hut is virtually unknown abroad.

One solution may come from the Global Distribution Service (GDS) operators, which are already feeling that they may lose out to the Internet in the future. The GDS companies are accustomed to moving bookings around from small operators to the largest travel agents on a global basis. They may be able to use their technical and management expertise to take advantage of the lack of development in this area. Two U.K. --based hotel companies have already combined the use of the Internet the GDS.

• Swallow Hotels - The company has recently upgraded its Internet site to enable room availability searches and on-line bookings. The site also has new- links to related Web sites, such as local tourist attractions. The company manages its own information via the Worldspan GDS, in preference to the choice many companies make of outsourcing to a marketing and reservations company. This enables the company to load new information onto the system within one day of receipt from the hotel.
• Thistle Hotels - The chain's 90 properties have now been loaded onto the Utell Hotel Book. The Hotel Book is accessible to the general public, travel agents and the hotels themselves. For the Thistle properties, it is possible to check availability and, once a password has been applied for, book a room. There are more than 6,500 hotels on Utell's Hotel Book, including international hotel chains, such as Sheraton, Sonesta, Golden Tulip, Four Seasons and Scandic and independent hotels. It is not possible, however, to book rooms through the site for all hotels via Utell. For others, availability is given, together with a message to contact either a Utell agent or the hotel directly for reservations. The system also allow-s hoteliers to call up Utell with the latest availability or transfer the information through the hotel's computer terminals, made possible because the Web site and reservation system are run off the same database

The World Tourism Organisation has recently confirmed figures for the most popular tourist destinations in 1997. France was again the most popular destination with about 11.5 percent of the world's total number of international tourists. The United States came second, with an increase of 5.5 percent in 1996. The figures also showed the increase in popularity of such destinations as Greece, Turkey and East European destinations, such as Poland and the Czech Republic. The United States, how-ever, is still in first position in tourism receipts, although China, Indonesia and Australia saw double digit growth during 1997.

How will this picture look in the year 2020? The World Tourism Organisation has predicted the top tourism destinations in the year 2020. China is forecast to become the world's top destination with 137.1 million arrivals, a market share of 8.6 percent. Strong growth is also forecast for Hong Kong, the Russian Federation and the Czech Republic. Germany is predicted to retain its pole position as the largest outbound market with a total of 163.5 million visits, a market share of 10.2 percent.

©Arthur Andersen