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Following a Strong Year in 2000, Rapid Supply Growth 
In U.S. Lodging Industry Will Place Pressure On 
Key Lodging Markets in 2001 and 2002
NEW YORK, Jul 17, 2000 -  In a study performed last week by PricewaterhouseCoopers on 20 of the country�s largest lodging markets, PricewaterhouseCoopers further examined the impact that supply growth will have on the industry in coming years.

PricewaterhouseCoopers categorized the markets by RevPAR and supply growth as follows:
 

�Favorable� markets are those where RevPAR growth exceeded U.S. RevPAR growth in the past two years, and where cumulative supply growth between March 2000 and December 2002 is expected to fall below the U.S. cumulative supply of 10 percent. These markets include:  
  • Los Angeles, 
  • Miami, 
  • New York, 
  • San Diego, and 
  • San Francisco.
Markets that have experienced strong, recent RevPAR growth, but where supply growth between 2000 and 2002 is above the U.S. supply growth are markets to �watch.� These markets include: 
  • Atlanta, 
  • Boston, 
  • Chicago, 
  • New Orleans, and 
  • Washington, D.C.
�Fragile� markets are those where RevPAR growth was less than the U.S. RevPAR growth in the past two years, yet where supply growth between 2000 and 2002 will be below the U.S. supply growth. These markets include: 
  • Denver, 
  • Hawaii, 
  • Minneapolis-St. Paul, 
  • Norfolk-Virginia Beach, and 
  • Phoenix.
Markets in �decline� are defined by RevPAR growth that was less than U.S. RevPAR growth in the past two years and where supply growth between 2000 and 2002 is expected to be above the U.S. supply growth. These markets may face supply pressures and continued weak RevPAR growth trends. These markets include: 
  • Dallas, 
  • Houston, 
  • Orlando, 
  • Philadelphia, and 
  • Seattle.

The PricewaterhouseCoopers� study is an aggregate across all price segments. Individual properties may outperform the market in many of these cities.

�As PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasted, RevPAR trends will be stronger in 2000 but will slow somewhat in 2001. Rapid supply growth has dampened both occupancy gains and room rate increases throughout the country and will continue to do so as the supply increases are absorbed in many key markets,� said Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., global industry partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers Hospitality & Leisure Practice.  �This has been a time of unprecedented supply growth, where new construction starts reached a record high in 1998 of 161,900 rooms.�

PricewaterhouseCoopers is the leader in econometric modelling and providing reliable U.S. lodging industry forecasts. The group predicted every industry turning point in the last ten years, usually two years in advance of each market move.

Recently, PricewaterhouseCoopers applied the same econometric modelling to the local level and can now offer forward-looking Market Outlooks. These local forecasts rely on extensive lodging data collection, empirical studies and solid econometric models to support all positions and conclusions. The Market Outlooks are patterned after the structure of the U.S. industry econometric model.

PricewaterhouseCoopers Hospitality and Leisure Group provides services including management, technology, human resources and financial consulting in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The group recently formed a partnership with Smith Travel Research.

###
Contact:
PricewaterhouseCoopers, New York
Wendy Determan, 212/596-5079
[email protected]
www.pwcglobal.com

Also See Diminished RevPAR Growth Forecasted by PricewaterhouseCoopers / May 2000 
Smith Travel Research's Chuck Ross Joins PricewaterhouseCoopers Hospitality Leisure Practice / Feb 2000


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