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Detroit and Anaheim Lead US Top 25 Markets in 
Occupancy % Growth for First 9 Months of 1999 /  
Smith Travel Research 
Lodging Outlook Survey for September 1999
October 29, 1999.. Hendersonville, TN - Industry occupancy for the month of September declined 0.5 percent from September 1998 to 65.9 percent. Average daily rate (ADR) grew 4.6% to $81.49, and room revenue per available room (RevPAR) - the combination of Occupancy and average daily rate and the key productivity measure -gained 4.1 percent to $53.70. 

Demand growth for the month was 3.7 percent, an increase of 0.7 percent from August. Supply growth followed the trend of previous months remaining slightly above 4.0 percent Supply growth exceeding demand growth has yielded declining occupancies for five out of the six previous months with only the month of July posting an occupancy increase over the same period last year. 

Third quarter 1999 industry occupancy was 69.7 percent a decline of 0.3 percent versus third quarter 1998. Average daily rate gained 4.1 percent to $80.43 in the quarter while RevPAR increased almost 4.0 percent to $56.29. 

On a more positive note, industry room supply (roomnights available) increased 4.1 percent in the quarter, down slightly from 4.2 percent in the third quarter 1998. Demand growth (roomnights sold) increased 3.7 percent up from the third quarter 1998 demand growth of 2.7 percent. Room revenue in the third quarter grew at its highest level since third quarter 1996, posting a growth rate of 8.0 percent. 

Occupancy for September year-to-date 1999, was 65.2 percent, down from 65.7 percent in the nine months ending September 1998. Average daily rate was $8I.06, up 3.8 percent from $78.06 in 1998, while RevPAR increased 3.1 percent decreasing from 3.4 percent for the nine-month year - to - date period ending September 1998. 

Room demand remained strong for the first nine months of the year, posting a robust growth rate of 3.5 percent versus the 3.1 percent for September year-to-date 1998. Supply growth for year-to-date September 1999 matched the 1998 level of growth of 4.2 percent. 

Within the top 25 largest markets (see table), only eight markets experienced positive occupancy growth for the nine months ending September 1999. Philadelphia led all markets with demand growth of almost 9.5 percent for the year-to date period ending September 1999, while Dallas recorded the highest supply growth of 13.8 percent. 

�Supply growth continues to outpace the healthy increases in demand throughout the industry�, said Randy Smith, CEO of Smith Travel Research. "Interestingly, The high-end segments (upper upscale chains and luxury priced properties) are not immune to the increases in supply that the rest of the industry has been experiencing for the past couple of years. These increases are keeping supply growth at levels higher that we originally anticipated.� 

Smith Travel Research --- the leader in lodging industry tracking and analysis --- provides regular industry reporting to all major U.S. chains, many Independent hotels, and a variety of management companies and hotel owners. The company also tracks lodging industry 
performance in Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and has just launched a worldwide program to collect hotel performance data on a global basis with its alliance partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers.

 
Lodging Outlook Survey for September 1999 Compared with September 1998 
Ranked by Year to Date Occupancy % Growth
  Operating Performance -  
September
  Operating Performance -  
September - Year to Date
  Occupancy Percent Average Room Rate Room  Rooms Rooms   Occupancy Percent Average Room Rate Room  Rooms Rooms
Top 25 Markets 1999 1998 % Chg 1999 1998 % Chg Rev Avail Sold   1999 1998 % Chg 1999 1998 % Chg Rev Avail Sold
              % Chg % Chg % Chg               % Chg % Chg % Chg
                                       
Detroit, MI 70.7  67.5  4.7% 78.37  74.33  5.4% 14.5  3.7  8.6    69.7  68.0  2.5% 77.07  72.72  6.0% 14.0  5.0  7.6 
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 64.1  60.3  6.3% 83.01  80.51  3.1% 11.1  1.4  7.8    67.8  66.5  2.0% 81.75  80.16  2.0% 5.6  1.6  3.6 
Washington, DC-MD-VA 75.1  72.6  3.4% 119.12  109.30  9.0% 16.7  3.6  7.1    72.9  71.8  1.5% 108.90  103.99  4.7% 10.6  4.0  5.6 
Los Angeles - Long Beach, CA 68.9  71.4  -3.5% 88.46  88.11  0.4% (2.0) 1.2  (2.4)   70.5  69.6  1.3% 91.81  88.50  3.7% 6.2  1.1  2.4 
St Louis, MO-IL 68.7  67.2  2.2% 71.76  71.68  0.1% 6.9  4.5  6.7    64.5  63.8  1.1% 70.14  69.92  0.3% 6.5  5.1  6.2 
Tampa - St Petersburg, FL 57.4  52.1  10.2% 75.59  70.32  7.5% 22.6  3.6  14.0    67.0  66.3  1.1% 82.82  79.01  4.8% 10.2  4.0  5.2 
San Diego, CA 71.1  73.8  -3.7% 102.82  96.83  6.2% 4.4  2.0  (1.7)   76.2  75.8  0.5% 103.23  97.00  6.4% 8.5  1.4  2.0 
Atlanta, GA 65.9  65.1  1.2% 81.14  77.08  5.3% 12.6  5.6  7.0    67.0  66.7  0.4% 79.94  78.25  2.2% 8.4  5.6  6.1 
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 72.5  70.6  2.7% 101.05  97.07  4.1% 17.8  10.2  13.2    69.1  69.2  -0.1% 96.90  95.34  1.6% 11.2  9.6  9.4 
San Francisco / San Mateo, CA 84.5  86.6  -2.4% 138.92  133.15  4.3% 6.6  4.7  2.1    79.3  79.6  -0.4% 135.01  127.14  6.2% 8.5  2.6  2.1 
New Orleans, LA 62.9  65.3  -3.7% 112.35  105.33  6.7% 5.5  2.6  (1.1)   70.3  70.6  -0.4% 113.94  107.83  5.7% 8.4  3.1  2.6 
New York, NY 88.7  86.5  2.5% 203.68  190.39  7.0% 12.4  2.4  5.1    80.7  81.2  -0.6% 178.60  172.09  3.8% 6.9  3.7  3.0 
Nashville, TN 62.7  63.6  -1.4% 76.60  74.85  2.3% 5.9  5.1  3.6    62.2  62.7  -0.8% 74.05  74.14  -0.1% 3.7  4.7  3.9 
Miami - Hialeah, FL 58.7  60.4  -2.8% 88.73  86.02  3.2% 5.7  5.4  2.5    69.6  70.2  -0.9% 107.40  100.29  7.1% 11.7  5.2  4.3 
Boston, MA 82.4  82.4  0.0% 153.94  135.62  13.5% 21.5  7.0  7.0    72.8  73.5  -1.0% 131.36  124.35  5.6% 12.2  7.3  6.2 
Chicago, IL 72.7  75.7  -4.0% 115.68  114.07  1.4% 2.3  5.1  0.9    70.3  71.0  -1.0% 109.51  105.39  3.9% 7.0  4.0  3.0 
Oahu Island 74.6  72.0  3.6% 105.62  105.63  0.0% 3.5  (0.1) 3.5    72.4  73.6  -1.6% 107.54  112.09  -4.1% (5.7) (0.1) (1.7)
Minenapolis - St Paul, MN 74.3  71.8  3.5% 82.07  81.00  1.3% 7.2  2.2  5.8    69.7  70.9  -1.7% 80.80  79.99  1.0% 4.6  5.3  3.6 
Norfolk - Virginia Beach, VA 60.0  65.1  -7.8% 69.82  69.56  0.4% (5.6) 2.1  (5.9)   60.6  62.0  -2.3% 72.53  69.52  4.3% 4.1  2.2  (0.2)
Orlando, FL 60.1  65.7  -8.5% 74.59  74.17  0.6% (1.4) 7.1  (1.9)   74.0  76.6  -3.4% 84.07  82.36  2.1% 4.6  6.0  2.4 
Denver, CO 72.5  74.7  -2.9% 80.82  79.66  1.5% 9.1  10.9  7.5    69.0  71.7  -3.8% 78.68  78.80  -0.2% 8.0  12.5  8.2 
Phoenix, AZ 56.2  56.7  -0.9% 81.41  82.24  -1.0% 7.3  9.4  8.4    62.9  65.6  -4.1% 98.35  99.95  -1.6% 4.0  10.3  5.7 
Dallas, TX 64.0  66.1  -3.2% 80.68  82.66  -2.4% 4.9  10.9  7.4    64.4  68.0  -5.3% 82.40  81.28  1.4% 9.1  13.8  7.6 
Seattle, WA 75.5  80.1  -5.7% 98.45  96.06  2.5% 6.1  9.8  3.5    71.1  75.1  -5.3% 96.85  93.77  3.3% 5.5  7.8  2.2 
Houston, TX 59.1  64.9  -8.9% 74.35  75.79  -1.9% (5.6) 5.7  (3.7)   61.2  64.7  -5.4% 74.17  73.86  0.4% 2.7  8.1  2.
Source: "Lodging Outlook" Copyright 1999 Smith Travel Research 
 
Contact:
Brad Garner
Smith Travel Research 
105 Music Village Blvd.
Hendersonville, TN 37075
615-824-8664
615-824-3848 (fax)

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