August 1999 - Strong signs are emerging from various sectors
that the Asian economic crisis has turned the corner, and that better days
lie ahead. That is always good news for the travel and tourism industry
which, as the next story in this month's issue reports, is also recovering.
Here are 10 recent developments that point to a regional economic turnaround:
A Reuters survey of 130 economists
across Asia has found "mighty hikes" in the outlooks for Korea (ROK) and
Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia, suggesting
that the regional slowdown is finishing sooner rather than later. Korea
(ROK) is seen as the star. The Thai economy too, is expected to rise all
through this year. |
Japan's Gross Domestic Product
surged 7.9 per-cent in January-March 1999, up 1.9 percent over the previous
quarter. Officials have said there is clearly light at the end of the tunnel
and the situation will get better as die government's economy-stimulating
budget takes hold to encourage corporate restructuring and cushion the
loss of jobs. Tokyo shares soared 3 percent when the news was announced. |
The Indian stock market has had
a bull-run that began in late April and turned into a rampage early in
the second half of this year Fund managers and analysts quoted by the Asian
Wall Street Journal say the run-up will be sustained thanks to signs of
an economic revival, evidence that corporate India is restructuring, the
establishment of electronic trading, an increasingly transparent settlement
system and a belief that a strong government could emerge from the September
1999 elections. |
Chinese Taipei reported that industrial production
grew 10 percent in June 1999, its fourth consec-utive month
of growth, while export orders rose 3.8 percent to US$10.5 billion. The
Ministry of Economic Affairs is expecting to raise its economic growth
forecast for 1999 from the current 5.07 percent to 5.5 percent. Domestic
consumption is also reported to be picking up. However, the ongoing political
tensions with China (PRC) are being watched with some concern. |
The Indonesian election will change
the political landscape of Southeast Asia's most populous and ethnically
diverse country Despite some uncertainty, there is much relief that the
elections went off relatively peacefully The International Monetary Fund-supported
reform programme is expected to go ahead even though the hardest part -
the restructuring and recapitalisation of the Indonesian banks -still lies
ahead. |
Singapore authorities have unveiled plans
to open its legal-services business to more competition in a
bid to attract international law firms with financial and capital markets
expertise and boost the island state's position as a regional financial
centre. A government committee studying the issue has recom-mended that
foreign and Singapore law firms be allowed to form joint ventures and alliances.
Legislative changes are under way. |
The Group of Seven industrialised
countries (G7) have agreed on a plan to provide debt relief for 36 poor
countries. Not all of the debt is expected to be written-off, however.
To qualify for the programme, those countries will have to carry out at
least six years of arduous economic reforms. |
The Bank for International Settlements
reported that global financial markets regained a measure of confidence
in the first quarter of 1999 with some emerging economies staging a capital
markets come-back. The most "striking" sign of improvement was the record
issuance of US$415 billion of long-term international debt in the period. |
Vietnam and the U.S. have announced
a landmark trade agreement that is expected to normalise com-mercial relations
between the two war-time adver-saries and help Vietnam's bid to join the
World Trade Organization. It will also help put Vietnam on the map for
American business. The two countries normalised diplomatic ties in 1995
and have since been working on doing the same for trade relations. |
The year-long debate over the appointment
of a new director-general for the World Trade Organization is over.
Former New Zealand Prime Minister the Right Honourable Mike Moore, is to
take the seat for the first three years followed for the next three years
by Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Supachai Panitchpak who will be
the first representative of a developing country to hold the top job. The
two men now have to prepare the agenda for an upcoming round of global
trade-liber-alisation talks due to open in Seattle in December
1999. |
And So Does Travel and Tourism
For a variety of reasons, travellers are on the move again. Though it
is still a long way from the pre-1997 levels, the Pacific Asia travel and
tourism industry can look forward to a much better year in 1999. The upcoming
new millennium should still be cause for bloom rather than gloom. Some
recent developments:
Month-on-month, total visitor arrivals have risen steadily in the first
three to four months of this year for Australia; Chinese Taipei; China
(PRC); Hong Kong, China; Korea (ROK); the Maldives; Sri Lanka; Macau; the
Philippines; Singapore; New Zealand and Thailand. This growth is over the
same periods of 1998 but still not yet back to the 1996 levels.
Outbound travel from Korea (ROK), Thailand and Japan is rising again,
as the following chart indicates.
Outbound Travel
|
Period
|
Number
|
Growth %
|
Korea (ROK) |
Jan-May '99 |
1,596,044 |
45.3% |
Thailand |
Jan-May '99 |
358,252 |
15.1% |
Japan |
Jan-May '99 |
3,975,405 |
3.9% |
Source: KNTO, TAT, JNTO |
Australia, which has maintained a strong tactical marketing presence in
the Southeast and Northeast Asian countries all through the crisis, is
reporting resumed growth from Indonesia, Korea (ROK) and Thailand. Japan
remains a difficulty, mainly due to the cutback of 25 percent of airline
capacity to Australia by the various airlines serving the two countries.
Korea (ROK), which has been encouraging inbound tourism as a result
of the devaluation of the Won, has reported strong growth in visitor arrivals
from Indonesia, Japan and Thailand in January-May 1999 over the same period
of 1998.
Thailand, another of the crisis-hit countries, has reported a 241 percent
increase in arrivals from Korea (ROK) in January-March 1999 over the same
period of 1998, 13 percent increase from Japan, and 114 percent from Indonesia.
Into Singapore, too, visitor arrivals in January-April 1999 over the
same period of 1998 rose 25.3 percent from Thailand, 34.2 percent from
Indonesia and 196 percent from Korea (ROK).
There are some subtle changes in travel patterns. Visitors are spending
less and staying less. But it is clear that travel is well and truly fixed
as a priority item on which to dispense discretionary income, and that
markets will respond to special deals for specific periods of time in specific
countries in specific times of the year.
Counter Trends - Re-thinking Globalisation
Travel and tourism has long been considered one of the vanguards of
globalisation. While its benefits are well known, little is known about
its negative influences.
This year's Human Development Report, commissioned by the United Nations
Development Programme, focuses for the first time on globalisation, It
says that while those who have been able to take advantage of the increasing
flow of goods and services across national boundaries have earned unprecedented
wealth, globalisation, as it has been allowed to proceed so far, has also
been driving a deeper wedge between richer and poor countries, and among
people within countries. People in some countries are in fact worse off
in many respects than they were a decade ago.
The challenge, says the report, is to ensure that the benefits of globalisation
are shared equitably "We have to make it work for people as well as for
profits."
This Counter-Trends section reproduces just a few of the findings and
conclusions of the UN Human Development Report. If even a few of its forecasts
about the socio-economic impact of globalisation come true, it could have
a major impact on the travel and tourism industry
The Facts of Global Life
-
The fifth of the world's people living in the highest income countries
has 86 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), 82 percent of world
export markets, 68 percent of foreign direct investments and 74 percent
of world telephone lines: the bottom fifth, in the poorest countries, has
about 1 percent in each sector
-
More than US$1.5 trillion a day is exchanged in the world's currency markets.
-
English is used in almost 80 percent of Web sites although fewer than one
in 10 people world-wide speaks the language.
-
The percentage share of the market by the top 10 corporations in each sector
in 1998 was: telecommunications, 86 percent; pesticides, 85 percent; computers,
almost 70 percent; veterinary medicine, 60 percent; pharmaceuticals, 35
percent; commercial seed, 32 percent.
-
The income gap between the richest fifth of the world's people and the
poorest fifth, measured by average national income per head, increased
from 30 to one in 1960 to 74 to one in 1997.
-
Tanzania's debt service payments are nine times what it spends on primary
health care and four times what it spends on public education.
-
Organised crime syndicates are estimated to gross US$1.5 trillion a year.
-
Industrialised countries hold 97 percent of all patents world-wide.
-
Production losses from the East Asian crisis and its global repercussions
are estimated at nearly US$2 trillion over the three years from 1998 to
2000.
-
The 200 richest people in the world more than doubled their net worth in
the four years to 1998, to US$1 trillion.
-
The value of the illegal drug trade was estimated at US$400 billion in
1995, about 8 percent of world trade, more than the shares of iron and
steel or of motor vehicles, and roughly the same as textiles and gas and
oil.
Quotes From the Report
-
The market alone will make global - citizens of those who can afford it.
-
When the profit motives of market players get out of hand, they challenge
peoples' ethics - and sacrifice respect for justice and human rights.
-
Families, nations and corporations have been free riding on caring labour
provided mostly by women, unpaid or underpaid.
-
Writing computer programmes and revealing genetic codes have replaced the
search for gold, the conquest of land and the command of machinery as the
path to economic power
-
Without strong governance, the dangers of global conflicts could be a reality
of the 21st century - trade wars promoting national and corporate interests,
uncontrolled financial volatility setting off civil conflicts, untamed
global crime infecting safe neighbourhoods and criminalising politics,
business, and the police.
-
In defining research agendas, money talks louder than need - cosmetic drugs
and slow-ripening tomatoes come higher on the list than a vaccine against
malaria or drought-resistant crops for marginal lands.
-
The collapse of space, time and borders may be creating a global village,
but not everyone can be a citizen. The global, professional elite now faces
low borders, but billions of others find borders as high as ever.
-
In the globalising world of shrinking time, shrinking space and disappearing
borders, people are confronting new threats to human security -sudden and
hurtful disruptions in the pattern of daily life.
-
The Internet is an easy vehicle for trafficking in drugs, arms and women,
through nearly untraceable networks.
-
The positive effects of social support and social relationships on life
expectancy are at least as significant as the negative effects of cigarette
smoking, hypertension and lack of physical exercise.
-
Competitive markets may be the best guarantee for efficiency but not necessarily
of equity And markets are neither the first word nor the last in human
development.
-
More progress has been made in norms, standards, policies and institutions
for open global markets than for people and their rights.
-
Reinventing global governance is not an option - it is an imperative for
the 21st century.
-
Global inequalities in income and living standards have reached grotesque
proportions.
-
The new rules of globalisation - and the players writing them - focus on
integrating global mar-kets, neglecting the needs of people that markets
cannot meet. The process is concentrating power and marginalising the poor;
both countries and people.
-
In the post-cold war world, local culture has often replaced ideology in
politics, as the rise of fundamentalist movements reflects.
-
Rejecting the tight control over software given by copyright, a reverse
movement has been launched - "copyleft" - turning standard practice on
its head.
-
Ultimately, people and nations will reject global integration and global
interdependence if they do not gain from it and if it increases their vulnerability.
Pressures will mount to retreat to isolationism in economic policy culture
and in political priorities.
-
Globalisation opens many opportunities for crime, and crime is rapidly
becoming global, out-pacing international cooperation to fight it.
-
A country can speed the growth of GDP by encouraging a shift in production
from unpaid services such as care to market commodities.... But a deficit
of care services not only destroys human development - it also undermines
economic growth.
-
Policies to foster more caring labour appear unproductive or costly only
to those who define them as narrowly contributing to GDP or short-term
profit. The erosion of family and community solidarity imposes enormous
costs reflected in inefficient and unsuccessful education efforts, high
crime rates and a social atmosphere of anxiety and resentment.
-
For the United States, the largest single export industry is not aircraft,
computers or automobiles - it is entertainment, in films and television
programmes.
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