April 29, 2013--With just four weeks left before Memorial Day, and six months after superstorm Sandy devastated the state, travelers, oceanfront business owners and politicians who are relying on tourism dollars to balance their budgets want to know the same thing: Will the Jersey Shore be ready?

Governor Christie is confident, and so are the beachfront towns and businesses that are scrambling to complete repairs in time.

But the reality is that the record-setting $19 billion the Shore generated in tourism revenue last year will likely not be matched this year. From rentals to restaurants, boardwalks to beaches, some of the Shore remains in disrepair. An estimated 365,000 homes were severely damaged in the storm and 189,500 businesses were affected, including 19,000 small businesses with $250,000 or more in damage.

In all, New Jersey suffered an estimated $29.4 billion in damage from Sandy. And fixing what's broke will be a long, arduous process.

Still, a successful summer could boost the state's confidence and its economy, as New Jersey works to move past Sandy's devastation.

For sure, Christie needs a successful summer to give an economic jolt to his proposed $32.9 billion budget. He also needs the rebuilding effort to generate jobs -- a thorny subject as the state continues to have one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.

"This is simply the biggest priority that we have and the one that will define success or failure for our state and for this administration as we move forward," Christie has said.

And although Christie has a high approval rating, his push to open the Shore on time also serves a political purpose: bolstering his image even further as he seeks voter approval in November for a second term.

"The expectation that this recovery needs to go positively is important," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Poll. "However, it would take probably an abject failure of any recovery at all for it to hurt the governor significantly because people want to go down the shore, they want to do their part for the state and they're not expecting that it's going to be 100 percent."

Related: Click here for more of the Record's coverage of the Sandy rebuilding effort

Overall state tourism dollars -- which reached nearly $40 billion last year -- boost the economy through sales, hotel, casino and income taxes. But if the motels, ice cream parlors and sausage and pepper stands along the Shore remain shuttered or no one knows they've reopened, there's no reason for people to visit.

"While we can't predict what will happen this summer, the tourism industry is getting the word out that many attractions, restaurants and venues are open and welcoming visitors," said Jennifer Stringfellow, a public information assistant in the state Division of Travel and Tourism.

Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, which analyzed Sandy's financial impact in a January report, estimated a $950 million tourism industry loss for the third quarter (July through September) of this year.

Joseph J. Seneca, an economist at the Bloustein school, said it can be attributed to a predicted decline in visitors to the hard-hit communities in Monmouth and Ocean counties. But he said that decline could be offset by tourists who decide to visit less-damaged areas, such as those farther south on the shoreline.

He said the rebuilding effort would also stimulate the economy.

Seneca called the tourism industry "a huge economic engine for the state" and said towns that rely on those dollars and property tax revenue to support their budgets will be affected, especially in Monmouth and Ocean.

But Christie and local officials say progress is being made. During a recent event in Stone Harbor, the governor said almost all of the damaged boardwalk will be rebuilt by Memorial Day. He said the amusements in Seaside would take longer, but he expects The Casino Pier to be open by July 4. Casino Pier has hired a marine salvage company to remove the Jet Star roller coaster, which had become a symbol of the devastation, from the ocean by Memorial Day, spokeswoman Toby Wolf said.

Seaside Heights Mayor William Akers said 55 percent of his municipal budget is based on tourism dollars while 35 percent relies on property taxes. The borough is seeking a FEMA loan and Akers said they'd have to budget realistically when it comes to predicting their revenue.

"If we have the essentials in place and even if we're at 80 to 85 percent, people will respond to it," he said. "If we get nice weather, I firmly believe we'll have a good tourist season."

Evidence of Christie's push can also be found in the $25 million advertising campaign the state hopes to launch in May and June to promote tourism.

Shore area chambers of commerce, still combating images of devastation that are splashed across television screens, also have initiated campaigns to bring home the recovery message.

Wildwood, North Wildwood and Wildwood Crest in Cape May County have more than 11,000 rentals, for example. The boardwalks were not damaged and businesses are already open, said Ben Rose, director of marketing and public relations for the Greater Wildwoods Tourism Improvement and Development Authority.

"Don't go to Myrtle Beach, don't go to Virginia Beach, don't go to Ocean City, Md., because the rest of the coastline is open," he said. "Stay in New Jersey and help New Jersey."

The authority posted pictures on Facebook to show the lack of damage after the storm and has launched a public relations campaign using billboards, television, radio, and online and print advertisements in the New York metro area to dispel concerns the area isn't ready for summer.

"The most important message that we're trying to get out is for people to vacation in New Jersey, not to go out of state, because if you go out of state you're not helping the recovery effort," Rose said. "If your favorite vacation destination was damaged, this summer we can accommodate you."

Further north on Long Beach Island, officials are doing their best to show that damage along the 18-mile barrier island was not as bad as some may have believed.

"The problem at LBI is that nobody knows we're open," said Long Beach Township Mayor Joseph Mancini, adding that 98 percent of island businesses will be ready by Memorial Day.

The only area of the township still considered a work in progress is the Holgate section, but despite serious damage from Sandy Mancini said 80 percent is "up and running."

There are also an abundance of available rental properties, he said.

"The ones that were damaged are being replaced by ones being fixed up by people who didn't get full payments from insurance who have to rent to make up the difference," he said.

The township's 54 guarded beaches will be manned this season, he said. And there is little concern about swimmers coming across debris in the water since much of it has already washed ashore and the ocean was cleared of debris by cleanups in January or February, Mancini said.

The state Department of Environmental Protection hired three companies to remove everything from houses and cars in Barnegat Bay to smaller storm-related debris in the ocean, streams, rivers and tributaries across the state. The companies must remove 75 percent of the debris by June 1, DEP spokesman Larry Ragonese said.

Large amounts of debris that aren't retrieved by the summer boating season will be marked, but boaters will have to be more alert and observant, he said.

Towns may also have to step up beach-cleaning efforts for debris "that will be rearing its head periodically during the summer," Ragonese said.

Even hard-hit areas are pushing to welcome tourists. Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long said temporary bathroom facilities will be installed and every beach club, and most restaurants, will be open by Memorial Day. But half of the 1,400 residents remain displaced, unable to return because of delayed or unexpectedly low flood insurance settlement payments, she said.

Balancing the local budget will be challenging because Sea Bright's property tax base is off by 20 percent, she said.

"We're not a big tourism driver; however, our businesses depend on the summer season," Long said. "We've been trying to help them and have a huge push to get the town cleaned up so it looks nice when the summer people come."

She said she's trusting in the goodwill of New Jerseyans who want to help the Shore recover.

Some towns however, are nowhere near being ready for the upcoming tourist season and will likely take years to come back.

The Ortley Beach section of Toms River is close to awarding a contract to remove homes that crashed into neighboring properties and toppled as storm surges overtook the small community. The goal is for the most severely damaged homes to be demolished by Memorial Day, Mayor Thomas Kelaher said.

"We want to get people coming to the beach in the summer," he said. "We can't have all these tipped over houses. Someone's going to get hurt."

Email: [email protected] or [email protected]

___

(c)2013 The Record (Hackensack, N.J.)

Visit The Record (Hackensack, N.J.) at www.NorthJersey.com

Distributed by MCT Information Services