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PKF Hospitality Research Issues Preliminary U.S. Lodging Forecast

Demand Growth and ADR Have Exceeded Expectations, Moody's Outlook for
Nations's Economy in Second Half of 2011 is Further Deterioration

Atlanta, GA - August 18, 2011 - PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) Hotel Horizons® forecasts are based on historical lodging data from Smith Travel Research (STR) and economic forecasts from Moody’s Analytics (Moody’s). Each quarter, as we receive new data from STR and Moody’s, we update our lodging forecasts. We recently received Moody’s July economic forecast, as well as year-to-date hotel performance data from STR for the first half of 2011.

After reviewing the new data from STR and Moody’s, we have made the following observations:
  • Lodging demand continues to grow at a greater pace than expected given the sluggish economy
  • Average daily room rates increased greater than our forecast during the first half of 2011, but are only growing slightly above inflation
  • Moody’s outlook for the nation’s economy during the second half of 2011 continues to deteriorate
Based on this new data, PKF-HR has developed a preliminary updated forecast for the U.S. lodging industry. The following table summarizes our preliminary September 2011 forecast.


The September 2011 Hotel Horizons® forecasts for the six national chain-scales, six property location types, and 50 major cities are scheduled to be published shortly. Please check the PKF-HR webstore at www.pkfc.com/store for the availability of our updated forecast reports.

About PKF CONSULTING USA
Headquartered in San Francisco, PKF Consulting USA (www.pkfc.com) is an advisory and real estate firm specializing in the hospitality industry.  PKF Consulting USA is owned by FirstService Corporation and is a subsidiary of Colliers International.  The firm operates two companies: PKF Consulting USA and PKF Hospitality Research.  The firm has offices in New York, Boston, Portland, Indianapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Atlanta, Asheville, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Bozeman, and San Francisco.
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Contact: 

Robert Mandelbaum
Director of Research Information Services
Colliers PKF Hospitality Research
3475 Lenox Road
Suite 720
Atlanta, GA 30326
404-842-1150, ext 223 (Direct)
404-842-1165 (Fax)
robert.mandelbaum@pkfc.com
www.pkfc.com

 

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Also See: U.S. Hotel Demand Powers Ahead with Forecasted Increase of 4.9%; Room Rates Continue To Lag / July 2011

Oil Prices and Lodging Risk: When Will Oil Prices Impact The Lodging Industry? / June 2011

PKF Reports U.S. Hotel Profits Grew 9.8 Percent in 2010; Profit Growth Rate Varies by Hotel Segment / May 2011

PKF Hospitality Research Amends U.S. Hotel RevPAR Recovery Upward to 7.1% compared to Previous 5.6% Forecast / March 2011

PKF-Hospitality Research's December Hotel Horizons® Shows U.S. Lodging Demand Growth at 7.8% for 2010, Combined with Rise in Occupancy Rates, RevPAR Gain Forecasted at 5.6% Increase for Year / December 2010

PKF-Hospitality Research Releases Hotel Horizons® Forecast Accuracy Assessment; Lessons Can Be Applied To 2011 Budgeting Process / June 2010

PKF Hospitality Research Updates Forecast to Show U.S. RevPAR Growth of 1.7% in 2010 While Profits Will Contract 1.4% / May 2010

Bottoms Down: New PKF Hospitality Research Survey Results Show Hotel Profits Declined a Record 35.4 Percent in 2009; Greatest Annual Decline Since Tracking Began in the 1930's / May 2010

U.S. Hotels Should Enjoy Double-digit Revenue Growth by 2012 According to PKF Hospitality Research / March 2010

2010 Will Continue to be a Tough Year for U.S. Hotel Owners and Operators; 2010 U.S Lodging ADR Now Forecasted by PKF at Minus 1.5% from 2009 ADR / December 2009
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