Jan. 20, 2005 - The debate about whether convention centers and attached hotels promise to bring in the numbers that consultants say they do took another jolt from San Antonian Heywood Sanders in his recent analysis for the Brookings Institution.

The purpose of his study is to "provide a frank reality check on the overly optimistic forecasts" cities use to justify new public investments in convention facilities.

The report doesn't study San Antonio, but mentions it among other cities that are expanding convention centers and proposing headquarters hotels.

Sanders, a public policy professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, also said a turnaround in the meetings industry is not imminent -- despite what tourism officials say.

Sanders said it was promised that after the expansion of San Antonio's Convention Center attendance would rise from 340,000 to a likely 660,000. He said attendance is now less than 300,000, according to numbers he received from the San Antonio Convention & Visitors Bureau.

"We doubled the size of the Convention Center and nothing happened," Sanders said. "We don't have the resources and visitor draw for meetings that's great enough to offset incentives from other places."

The incentives Sanders refers to include convention centers deeply discounting space or nearly giving it away to lure events.

Although the Convention Center was recently voted by Meetings South magazine as the best convention facility in the South for the second consecutive year, facilities like these are considered loss leaders in most cities.

The center's operating budget is about $18.5 million, and it makes a little more than $8 million. About 27 percent of the events there -- the greatest percentage -- are sponsored by the city.

Michael Sawaya, the city's convention facilities director, said San Antonio is often insulated from downturns in the convention industry because of its culture and the lure of the River Walk.

"(Events) set records with their attendance when they come to San Antonio," Sawaya said. "If you look at 2002, the year immediately following 9-11, we collected more in (hotel occupancy) tax. How does Heywood answer that?"

Steven Hacker, president of the Dallas-based International Association of Exhibition Management, said Sanders has a "well-earned reputation for seeing doom and gloom."

"This report is typical of his tactics," Hacker said. "His theory was right in 2001 and 2002, but time is running out on Dr. No, and people will be hard pressed to believe him."

Hacker said attendance at IAEM's convention in San Antonio last month increased from the 1,600 it originally estimated to 2,100.

Though the event lured about 2,200 in Las Vegas the year before, Miami only attracted about 1,500 in 2002.

Beth Blake of Reed Exhibitions, which operates the National Hardware Show, said that since the show moved from Chicago to Las Vegas, it has increased in space and exhibitors.

She said attendance had declined because of consolidation in the hardware/home improvement industry, the weak economy, and reduction in travel and marketing budgets. But for this year's show in May, her company is estimating a 10 percent increase in attendance from last year's audited figure of 22,691.

Sanders disputed the latest argument from tourism officials -- that more space means cities can host more than one large meeting at a time and that there won't be a downtime for hotels when shows are setting up.

The City Council recently approved the building of a 1,000-room hotel adjacent to the Convention Center. The hotel will also have ample meeting space and will be funded with empowerment zone bonds and capital from developers.

But Sanders adds that other larger destinations such as Las Vegas, Chicago and New Orleans are going after the same meetings as San Antonio is, making the industry more competitive.

Sanders believes the convention industry needs more reliable data to gauge its success, more public involvement is needed when it comes to projects that tap into empowerment zone bonds, and audits should be done on consultant studies.

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