Oct. 7--For months, South Florida business leaders have been thanking their lucky stars for Europe.

The weak dollar has made our region attractive to Europeans. A Miami vacation, a Fort Lauderdale Beach condominium, a boat made in West Palm Beach -- all seemed cheap when you were paying in euros.

And the steady flow of German, English, French, Spanish and Portuguese visitors -- and their money -- helped insulate South Florida from the national economic downturn.

Now, it seems, it may be time to pay the piper.

"Here in South Florida we have prided ourselves on the notion we are relatively immune from these kinds of activities, because we have sun, we have tourism, we have a port for exports, and Latin American markets are doing very well . . .," said Florida International University business professor Jerry Haar. "That was true until recently."

European and other foreign stock markets imploded on Monday, and the euro continued a recent tumble, following news of bank woes on their side of the Atlantic. Many European banks bought the same American mortgage-backed securities and other dubious investments that have plagued the U.S. economy.

A LOT AT STAKE

It's too early to know how long the turmoil abroad will continue. But of this much we can be sure: South Florida has a lot at stake.

Nowhere are the stakes higher than in the region's tourism industry.

Without Europeans spending discounted dollar bills, the industry would have suffered a weaker 2008.

At the Harbor Beach Marriott, one of Fort Lauderdale's most expensive hotels, the United Kingdom market flattened about a month ago amid the bursting of a housing bubble there, sales director Jay Marsella said. Bookings from Germany and other countries continue to grow, but Marsella said Monday's financial development rattled his outlook.

"We just saw some news on Russia. Their [stock] market is dropping like crazy," he said, noting Russia has been a growing source of guests. "Obviously, there are concerns overseas."

'PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL'

In Miami-Dade, where about half the tourists come from other countries, hotel taxes grew 8 percent in August. But in Broward, where only 20 percent of tourists are foreign, hotel taxes dropped 7 percent. The trend played out throughout the year, too, with revenue per room down 2 percent in Broward but up 3 percent in Miami-Dade.

"Not a lot of people in this country are going to be traveling," said Raul Leal, president of Tecton Hospitality, which manages five Miami Beach hotels. "In this current economy, it would be a pretty substantial situation if the European market declined."

Summer magnifies the European effect, since it's a popular time for Florida vacations while Americans prefer to visit in the winter. Despite economic worries and a weaker euro, travel executives said Europeans continue booking South Florida trips at a brisk pace.

"We continue having high occupancies. We are pretty much booked all the way through February," said Manuel Donoso, director of sales for the Riu hotel in Miami Beach, one of the most popular spots for European vacationers. "We haven't seen a change."

'A GOOD BARGAIN'

A big test will come this winter, when Europeans traditionally make most of their travel plans for the summer. Vacation wholesalers will set those prices next month, and the current exchange rate would mean a 10 or 20 percent hike in prices from summer 2008, said Peter van Berkel, president of Travalco, a wholesaler in North Miami.

Still, the euro is up 7 percent from where it was two years ago against the dollar.

"It's still going to be a good bargain to come to the United States," van Berkel said.

Tourism isn't the only local industry interested in what happens in Europe.

As the dollar soars against a host of currencies -- including the euro and the British pound, South Florida could become less attractive for foreigners who were considering buying real estate in the area.

'LITTLE EXPECTATION'

Craig Studnicky, president of International Sales Group, an Aventura-based firm that specializes in marketing condominiums, said: "We have very little expectation of sales coming from Europe. A lot of Europeans in the first half of '08 had great buying power, but waited for the real-estate prices to hit bottom. I don't know that they've hit bottom, but in that period of time, they've lost their buying leverage."

He said the firm is redirecting its focus to Latin America and the U.S., particularly the northeast.

Studnicky said demand remains among Venezuelans, seeking a safe haven from leftist president Hugo Chavez, and Mexicans, concerned about violence related to drug trafficking. Still, some brokers said the strengthening of the dollar won't be a big deterrent to foreigners interested in Florida real estate.

"Most people are more motivated by the values they are finding than the exchange rate," said Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger Wooten Maxwell in Coral Gables. "The reasons people always purchased here are still here: People always bought here because of the stability of the U.S. government."

EXPORTS

South Florida exports, which have been helped by the weak dollar, could slow as the dollar strengthens.

The Monaco Yacht Show seemed to go well for U.S. sellers last month, even though securing a boat loan has gotten harder. That's good news, because Florida boat-makers have been depending more and more on European buyers.

But on the Monday after the show, the House of Representatives voted against a bailout of the financial industry. Marine-industry consultant Jim Bronstien heard an interesting story.

"There were a number of offers for very large yachts, and the offers were rescinded after the market fell 700 points," said Bronstien, of Marine Business Advisors in Palm Beach County.

He said the industry has a lot tied to Europe's fortunes.

"I think anybody who isn't a little bit concerned would be ill-advised," Bronstien said. "The world is changing pretty rapidly."

CREDIT LINES

Gilbert Lee Sandler, a Miami-based international trade lawyer, said that because most purchases and production are governed by longer term contracts, trade numbers will not reflect the slowdown for a while. But he said companies in international business could struggle to obtain working capital to meet payroll operations overseas and here if they face difficulties in tapping into their existing credit lines or new ones.

"There are a lot of businesses that have credit lines for a rainy day," Sandler said. "Those credit lines may not be tappable in the current climate."

Haar, the FIU business professor, explained international interdependence this way: "If you have 12 prisoners shackled by the leg, and they're trying to escape, they have to move in tandem. If one falls, the others fall."

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