| By Neville Pike and Charles Barlow - Summer 1998
The European Monetary Union's (EMU's) launch of its single currency
just months from now starts the countdown for businesses throughout Europe.
The euro becomes a currency in its own right at the beginning of 1999.
The advent of a single currency and monetary policy among participating
nations will bring complex change, as these economies become transparent
for the first time in an enhanced single market. This bodes well for hotel
owners and investors. Euro is expected to promote economic growth, and
stability in inflation and interest rates. It will encourage investor and
consumer confidence in economic cycles, which are expected to flatten in
the single market following introduction of the new currency. In addition,
increased foreign investment in euro countries and immediate savings from
eliminating foreign exchange risk will provide compelling benefits for
hospitality companies. Euro companies doing business in euro countries
will no longer need to include a margin in their price to hedge against
adverse movements in exchange rates. This will place competitors in non-euro
countries at a disadvantage.
The shift to the euro currency, however, also poses significant challenges
for the hospitality industry. The conversion is much more than a technological
problem involved with converting financial accounts to a new currency;
euro will transform the way business is done throughout Europe. Companies
must plan for difficult structural changes in operations. Conversion to
euro also potentially sets the stage for new strategic opportunities and
improved competitive position for many companies in the global hospitality
industry.
Timetable for an Historic Change
The EMU and its introduction of a common currency begin on January 1,
1999. On that date the currency exchange rates of participating nations
are irrevocably converted to the euro, in the process creating the single
currency. National currencies will remain in circulation as denominations
of the euro until euro banknotes and coins are introduced. Hotel guests
and other consumers in participating countries, for example, will continue
to use national currency notes and coins during a three-year changeover
period as sub-denominations of euro (e.g., a FRF 100 note will equal approximately
EUR 15.17). The conversion process will be completed by January I, 2002.
Six months later, national currencies will be withdrawn from circulation.
Countries Converting to Euro
The introduction of the EMU common currency has taken place amidst considerable
uncertainty and debate. The EMU's Council of Finance Ministers developed
convergence criteria for participating nations, including economic standards,
for those countries seeking to convert to euro. The Council has monitored
performance of each of the member states against the convergence criteria
since last year. The European commission on March 26,1998 formally recommended
that 11 European countries should adopt a single currency from 1999.
The first wave of countries includes Germany, France, Belgium, The Netherlands,
Luxembourg, Austria, Ireland, Finland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The United
Kingdom is not scheduled to participate in the first wave of EMU, hut the
new government recognizes that Britain cannot remain indefinitely outside
a successful single currency. Whether or not the United Kingdom participates,
however, U.K. companies will be significantly affected by the introduction
of the single currency. The same holds true for companies in other non-participating
European nations -Denmark, Sweden, Greece, Norway and Switzerland - as
well as international hotel chains based in the United States and elsewhere
in the world.
A Complex Changeover
During the changeover period beginning in 1999, there will be no requirement
to use the euro. National banknotes and coins remain legal tender as uneven
denominations of euro. Companies in euro countries will trade with each
other, raise debt and pay employees in euro, even though no euro banknotes
or coins will exist. The banks will convert national currencies into euro
(and vice versa) at the fixed conversion rates to facilitate transactions
in cash and to accommodate customers without euro accounts. Companies in
non--euro countries will transact in euro just as they do in Deutschemarks
or U.S. dollars today.
Developing
an EMU Strategy
Many companies are seeking clear guidance and direction on the
complex issues involved in the change to the euro currency. Arthur Andersen
has developed a three - phase model to help companies understand the impact
of euro on their business.
|
Phase 1
Strategic Assessment
|
Phase II
Detailed Design
|
Phase III
Implementation
|
| Project mobilisation and planning |
Develop detailed design |
Agree on implementation plan |
| Data collection and analysis |
Refine business case |
Retrain and implement |
| Impact and opportunity analysis |
Test and evaluate |
Evaluate and modify |
| Business case development |
|
|
Phase I
Strategic Assessment
| Project mobilisation and planning |
Data collection and analysis |
Impact and opportunity analysis |
Business case development |
| Major Activities |
|
|
|
| Define project scope |
Develop questionnaires |
Conduct strategic and functional workshops |
Develop cost benefit analysis |
| Develop work plan |
Summarise responses |
Identify must and could do's |
Prioritise must and could do's |
| Determine project team |
Interview key personnel |
|
Review barriers and enablers |
| Key Outputs |
|
|
|
| Agreed scope and objectives |
Identified key issues |
Functional must do's |
Strategic response to EMU |
| Phase I work plan |
|
Strategic could do's |
Prioritised actions |
| Oriented project team |
|
|
Outline plan for Phase II |
Hospitality - The
Strategic Challenge and Opportunity
The implications for the hospitality industry worldwide are significant.
For individual organizations, including the international chains, knowing
where to begin is a major task in itself. Conversion to euro will affect
virtually every aspect of hotel operations - from the front office to the
marketing programs targeting business and leisure travelers. Investigating
the impact of the euro on each company requires a multifunctional pan -European
team. Both technical problems and strategic opportunities need to be identified
in key areas for the hospitality company and individual hotel properties
across Europe:
Finance and Accounting
For multinationals operating in euro countries, the single currency
provides the opportunity to budget, forecast, report and account in the
same unit of currency, settle all intercompany transactions in euro and
instantly compare the performance of business units across national boundaries.
These advantages will be significantly diminished if European business
units in non-euro countries continue to operate in national currencies
Therefore, it is likely that multinational hold companies will require
all their properties to convert to euro, and establish the euro as the
functional currency for management- and possibly statutory - reporting.
A major challenge will he converting financial systems to the euro.
All current and historical data will have to be translated into the new
currency, including both hack and front office hotel operations. For example,
yield management systems, which rely on historical rate and occupancy data,
will have to he translated to the new currency. Dual pricing and invoicing
also present a special challenge with key implications for systems, customer
service, rounding and display of prices, long-term price agreements and
commercial documentation.
Strategic opportunities include more meaningful controlling and reporting
with easier identification of inefficiencies, and reduced finance costs.
It will be much easier, for example, to compare a hotel's performance in
Madrid against one in Paris.
Under a single currency, exchange rates will not cloud benchmarking
properties against each other. In addition, there will also be greatly
enhanced opportunities to create shared service centers, which process
financial and other types of information from multiple hotel properties
in a central facility. Under a single currency, many hotel chains can now
consider these centers as viable ways to reduce costs and improve operational
efficiencies.
Treasury Management
Adoption of the euro as a common currency will make many current hedging
arrangements in hotel acquisition and development obsolete. At the same
time, the euro will eliminate foreign exchange risk from some investment
appraisal decisions of euro-based corporates. It also has significant strategic
implications and benefits in sales and marketing. A corporate customer
booking a major conference a year in advance, for example, will not be
forced to deal with potential changes in the currency exchange rate between
the booking and conference dates. As a result, properties in euro countries
will have a competitive advantage when it comes to attracting many large
corporate customers in the conference business.
However, non-euro countries that previously invoiced customers in local
currencies may now be required by their corporate customers to invoice
in euro. This will lead to foreign exchange exposure previously not experienced
and may result in the need to hedge operations.
Legal and Tax
Introduction of euro will not change any tax, legislative or regulatory
provisions. With the euro, however, costs and profitability in one country
will be transparent to another. This transparency will highlight the structural
differences in taxes and employment add-ons from country to country. Tax
questions must be examined from country to country for the organization
as a whole, and for individual hotel properties. These include complex
issues relating to the costs of euro introduction, and foreign exchange
gains and losses, which are effectively realized on adoption of the euro.
Tax issues arising from operational changes associated with the euro's
introduction also need to be carefully considered. For example, tax may
mitigate toward locating a shared service center in one euro country over
another. Ultimately, the single currency is likely to encourage much greater
uniformity of tax and other laws across euro countries.
Customer Relationships
The conversion of national currencies to euro will have a broad impact
on customer relationships in the hospitality industry. Business and leisure
travelers, as well as corporate customers requiring conference facilities,
will be able to compare prices with much greater ease, becoming more sophisticated
in their purchasing decisions. Customers can be expected to shop for the
best deal and become more knowledgeable than under the system of multiple
national currencies.
Nevertheless, strategic opportunities for the hospitality industry in
euro countries abound:
| The conference market will be stimulated because the exchange rate
risk is eliminated. |
| To the extent hedging is eliminated, package tours and holidays will
become more affordable. Demand will increase and potentially reduce prices
even more. |
| Investment in vacation ownership (time-sharing) will be stimulated
since euro investors in euro land will not he exposed to exchange loss
on capital. |
| Economists predict that the costs of hedging airline fuel (fixed in
dollars) will drop because of the reduced volatility of the euro. Lower
travel costs are likely to increase demand. |
| Transparent and consistent pricing can strengthen brand and sub-brands.
An international hotel chain may wish to consider the benefits of brand
enhancement through consistent euro pricing in different tiers of the market.
This could be of particular benefit in the budget sector and as a means
of attracting business off peak in companies with very similar hotel products. |
If customers reorganize how they make purchasing decisions, hotel companies
may have to restructure sales and marketing. Relationships with key customers
may need to be established on a pan-European basis rather than at a national
or even local property level, as is commonly the case today. Companies
need to consider ways of redefining their products to take advantage of
new marketing opportunities, increase differentiation to offset price comparability,
and give serious consideration to revision and maintenance of psychological
price points in euro currency.
Purchasing and Vendor Relationships
Hospitality companies operating in euro countries will undoubtedly ask
suppliers in other European countries to quote prices, issue invoices and
accept payment in euro. Conversely suppliers based in euro countries may
demand payment in euro from non-euro based companies. Transparency in pricing
is likely to eventually lead to lower costs and differentiation by product
quality. We expect this convergence across euro countries may well be slow,
particularly when there is high labor input to a product or service, or
in respect to the purchase of food or other perishable goods since labor
costs vary widely across euro countries, as do transport costs. The use
of advanced purchasing techniques can help mitigate structural inefficiencies
in supply chains and maximize benefits from low cost/high quality providers.
Information Technology
Adoption of the new currency will require hospitality organizations
to make many technology systems changes, which range in complexity from
altering field widths on existing systems to accommodate extra decimal
places (Belgium, Italy, Spain and Portugal) to maintaining dual currency
systems during the period of changeover. Complete replacement of software
systems and their hardware platforms also may be required.
Implementation of required technology changes will be complex, time-consuming
and expensive. A key concern is the availability of skilled staff given
the concurrent demands of the Year 2000 effort. These problems are compounded
in the hospitality industry where variations in front office and back office
systems between properties operated by the same company are still commonplace.
The euro conversion therefore offers a strategic opportunity to hotel organizations
in realigning and integrating all systems. The result can be improved efficiencies
and technology investments.
Communication
There is relatively little understanding of how the euro will affect
businesses and consumers. Businesses, as a result, need strong communication
programs to enable employees and guests to understand how the changeover
affects their companies and their personal lives. Employees may perceive
their salaries have been reduced. Guests will perceive increased costs.
In Italy, for example, employees may be currently paid in millions of lira.
After conversion, they will be paid in hundreds of euro. Clear explanations
of purchasing parity will reduce misconceptions. However, the cost of this
re-education is likely to be high. At the same time, hospitality companies
have the opportunity to be seen as an industry leader in the development
of a single European market, and to take maximum advantage of marketing
via new interactive media, such as the Internet.
Human Resources
Labor is the single, most important operational cost for hotel companies.
Communication and training a large workforce, which also includes many
semi-skilled and unskilled employees, will require significant management
attention. Human resource management issues relating to the euro are critical.
Conversion of wages of large numbers of workers to euro may be wage inflationary
because of rounding differences alone. Management must be prepared for
pressure to inflate wages when employees can easily compare wages in different
locations. On the positive side, employees should be less reluctant to
move from country to county. Enhanced job mobility under the euro will
enable the enhancement of management training and career development programs,
and therefore aid senior employee retention, to the benefit of the hospitality
industry.
Owner Issues
There are three potential entities involved in hotel operations -owners
managers and franchisees - and each will be affected by a conversion to
euro. Of special interest to the hospitality industry is who pays for the
conversion to euro for managed or franchised properties. In addition, adoption
of euro must be seamless from the guest's perspective. Companies will need
to bring clarity to decisions regarding conversion to euro and who pays
for it to ensure that requirements of all parties are met. Agreements and
contracts will need to be made and liaison structures put in place to ensure
that conversion is sufficient for the needs of owners, and is consistent
with procedures put in place by other hotels in the managed or franchised
chain.
-
The absolute requirements of the euro currency are relatively few.
The significance is largely in strategic opportunities and threats for
hospitality organizations, and their impact on global industry. The single
currency should be viewed not only as a driver of change, but also as a
facilitator of opportunity in the historic formation of a single market
in Europe.
(Neville Pike is a Partner in Arthur Andersen's Hospitality and Leisure
Services Practice. Charles Barlow is a Senior Consultant. Both are based
in the firm's London office.)
©Arthur Andersen |